Betting tips from AI for Oliver Tero vs Davide Manente, 22 November 2025.

The market is sending a loud message. Oliver Tero opened around 1.25 and has been bet into the 1.17 neighborhood, settling here at 1.17 against Davide Manente at 4.60. That steam is rarely random in regional MMA: it reflects both sharp respect for Tero’s skills and wide skepticism about Manente’s current form. Add in a Manchester crowd that will roar for the undefeated local, and the pricing makes sense.

Stylistically, this looks like a tough assignment for Manente. Tero has flashed power (2-0, both KOs) and, crucially, brings a grappling edge that analysts have circled as a pressure point. Brad Pickett questioned whether Manente can cope there, and it’s fair: Manente’s 0-2-1 stretch includes losses by submission and decision, suggesting he can be controlled or finished when forced to grapple. If Tero decides to level change off his striking or clinch to mat returns, he likely dictates where this fight happens and when.

Manente’s win condition is clear but narrow: establish rhythm early, keep it standing, and win the timing battle in open space. He’s “dangerous if he finds his rhythm early,” as noted by Pickett, but he’ll need clean entries and exit angles without getting tied up. Against an opponent with superior physicality, crowd momentum, and a proven finishing gear, he’ll be fighting uphill for long stretches.

From a betting perspective, the key question is whether the price is still playable. The implied probability at 1.17 is roughly 85.5%, while 4.60 implies about 21.7% for Manente. Given the matchup edges (striking power as a threat, grappling as the safety net, and home advantage), I rate Tero closer to the 88–92% range. That leaves a sliver of positive expected value on the favorite even after the steam. For a $1 stake, the potential profit on Tero is modest, but the EV remains positive; conversely, Manente requires a probability north of ~21.7% to justify a play, and I don’t see it on tape or in the recent form.

There’s always variance in small-glove MMA—Manente’s best chance is an early momentum swing in the first five minutes—but Tero owns multiple paths to victory: power striking to force defensive reactions, clinch-to-mat sequences to drain Manente, and top control that wins minutes or sets up a finish. With no reported injuries and form lines pointing one way, the disciplined play is Tero moneyline at 1.17 despite the juice.

This Cage Warriors showdown in Manchester presents a classic case of a rapidly rising prospect against a struggling journeyman, and the betting odds tell the entire story. Oliver Tero enters as a massive favorite, with his price plummeting from an opening 1.25 to a prohibitive 1.17. Davide Manente, on the other hand, is a longshot underdog at 4.60, and for good reason. This is a showcase fight designed to elevate Tero, and all signs point to him delivering a spectacular performance in front of his home crowd.

Oliver Tero isn't just winning; he's dominating. With an unblemished 2-0 professional record, both victories have come by way of knockout, cementing his reputation as a fearsome finisher. Esteemed MMA journalist Darren Till has labeled him the "breakout star of the Cage Warriors undercard," a high praise that underscores his potential. Currently ranked #3 in the featherweight division, Tero is on a fast track to title contention. His combination of striking power and a strong grappling base, highlighted by analysts as a key weapon, makes him a dual-threat fighter who can end the contest anywhere. The added energy from a partisan Manchester crowd will only fuel his aggressive style.

Davide Manente faces an incredibly steep uphill battle. Still searching for his first professional victory with a discouraging 0-2-1 record, his recent performances inspire little confidence. His losses have come via both submission and decision, revealing vulnerabilities in his grappling defense and his ability to win rounds against durable opponents. While former UFC fighter Brad Pickett acknowledged that Manente can be "dangerous if he finds his rhythm early," that window of opportunity appears vanishingly small against a powerhouse like Tero. Manente's best hope is to land a clean, fight-altering shot in the opening minutes, a classic "puncher's chance" scenario that rarely pays off against elite prospects.

From a betting perspective, the value on a straight Tero win at 1.17 is admittedly low, but it accurately reflects the high probability of the outcome. Tero possesses all the advantages: superior skill, momentum, finishing ability, a home crowd, and a clear stylistic edge. Manente's path to victory is a tightrope walk, relying on a mistake from Tero that is unlikely to come. Tero can win this fight by knockout on the feet or by taking Manente down and securing a submission, exploiting the very weakness that has led to Manente's prior defeats. This is Tero's fight to lose, and everything from the stats to the expert analysis points towards a decisive victory for the Manchester native.

This Cage Warriors 198 matchup presents a classic prospect versus journeyman scenario, with the betting market heavily favoring Oliver Tero at 1.17 against Davide Manente's 4.60 odds. The line movement from -400 to as steep as -600 indicates strong professional money backing Tero, suggesting the initial assessment may have undervalued his dominance.

Tero enters this Manchester bout as an undefeated prospect with genuine finishing ability, having secured both professional victories via knockout. His 2-0 record might seem limited, but the quality of his performances has caught the attention of MMA journalists like Darren Till, who specifically highlighted his finishing power. The home crowd advantage in Manchester cannot be understated in combat sports, where crowd energy often translates to momentum shifts and psychological advantages.

The stylistic matchup heavily favors Tero across multiple dimensions. Former UFC fighter Brad Pickett's analysis points to a crucial weakness in Manente's game - his vulnerability to grappling exchanges. Given Tero's highlighted grappling prowess, this creates multiple pathways to victory for the favorite. Even if Manente finds early rhythm in striking exchanges, Tero possesses the wrestling foundation to neutralize this advantage and impose his game plan.

Manente's 0-2-1 professional record tells a concerning story for backers of the underdog. Both losses came via submission and decision, indicating he's been dominated in grappling exchanges and lacks the finishing instinct to capitalize on potential advantages. His search for a first professional victory against a highly-regarded prospect seems optimistic at best.

The risk-reward calculation strongly supports backing Tero despite the steep price. While 1.17 offers minimal return, the probability of victory appears significantly higher than the implied 85.4% the odds suggest. Tero's combination of finishing ability, home advantage, stylistic advantages, and momentum make this a high-confidence selection for profitable betting.

As we gear up for Cage Warriors 198 in Manchester, the featherweight clash between Oliver Tero and Davide Manente is shaping up to be a classic favorite-underdog story. Tero, the hometown hero, steps into the cage with an unblemished 2-0 record, both victories coming via knockout, showcasing his devastating finishing power. Ranked #3 in the division, he's been dubbed the 'breakout star' by MMA journalist Darren Till, who expects him to dominate once again. With the crowd roaring in his favor at home, Tero's momentum is undeniable, and the betting markets reflect that with odds tightening from -400 to as low as 1.17, currently sitting at 1.17.

On the flip side, Davide Manente enters as a heavy underdog at 4.60, desperately seeking his first professional win after a tough 0-2-1 stretch. His recent losses by submission and decision highlight vulnerabilities, especially against grapplers like Tero. Former UFC fighter Brad Pickett points out that Manente could be dangerous if he finds his rhythm early in stand-up exchanges, but questions his ability to handle Tero's ground game. Without any reported injuries, this boils down to styles: Tero's grappling edge could neutralize Manente's striking if it hits the mat.

From a betting perspective, laying money on Tero at 1.17 might seem steep, but his undefeated streak and home advantage make it a solid play for those chasing consistency. The odds movement suggests sharp money is piling on him, and with no scandals clouding the buildup, the hype around Tero feels justified. If you're eyeing value, perhaps look at prop bets like Tero by KO/TKO, given his history. Manente's path to victory is narrow—likely needing a lucky punch early—but history shows underdogs in MMA can surprise, though the stats here scream Tero dominance.

Analysts emphasize Tero's finishing ability as the x-factor, potentially ending this in the first or second round. For bettors, this isn't just about picking a winner; it's about weighing risk versus reward in a promotion like Cage Warriors, where rising stars like Tero often shine brightest. Don't sleep on the energy in Manchester—it could propel Tero to another highlight-reel finish, solidifying his status as a prospect to watch.

The upcoming featherweight bout at Cage Warriors 198 between Oliver Tero and Davide Manente has captured the attention of MMA enthusiasts and bettors alike, with Tero emerging as the overwhelming favorite. Tero, fighting in his hometown of Manchester, boasts an impressive undefeated record of 2-0, with both victories coming by knockout, showcasing his explosive power and ability to finish fights early. His rise has been highlighted by MMA journalist Darren Till, who labeled him a 'breakout star' and expects him to demonstrate his finishing prowess once again. This home-cage advantage cannot be understated, as a supportive crowd can boost a fighter's morale and potentially sway close rounds in their favor.

In contrast, Davide Manente enters the octagon on a disappointing 0-2-1 streak, with losses revealing significant vulnerabilities, particularly in his grappling defense and consistency. Former UFC fighter Brad Pickett noted that Manente is 'dangerous if he finds his rhythm early,' but expressed skepticism about his capacity to handle Tero's ground game. This analysis points to a critical mismatch: Tero's grappling skills could dominate if the fight goes to the mat, while Manente's best chance lies in landing a powerful strike during stand-up exchanges. However, given Manente's recent form and lack of professional wins, an upset seems improbable.

Betting markets have reinforced Tero's status, with odds shifting from 1.25 to as low as 1.17 before settling at 1.17, indicating strong confidence from both the public and experts. This movement reflects Tero's consistent performances and the lack of any reported injuries or controversies leading up to the fight. For Manente, odds of 4.60 might appeal to risk-takers dreaming of a big payout, but the low probability of success—around 22% implied—makes it a speculative bet rather than a smart investment.

Considering the three-round format, Tero's stamina and strategic approach are likely to prevail, possibly ending the fight before the final bell. His social media presence has sparked debates about overhype, but his in-cage results provide concrete evidence of his capabilities. For bettors aiming to maximize profits over time, wagering on Tero at 1.17 offers a high probability of return, aligning with a conservative, value-driven strategy. While underdog stories can be thrilling, the data and expert insights overwhelmingly support Tero as the reliable choice for this matchup.

The upcoming MMA bout between Oliver Tero and Davide Manente is shaping up to be a classic underdog-versus-favorite scenario, with the betting markets heavily favoring Tero at odds of 1.17. This line reflects not only his undefeated record but also expert commentary that has positioned him as a rising star in the sport. For context, those backing Tero would need to wager $588 to win $100, while Manente’s odds of 4.60 imply significant doubt about his chances, offering a $360 profit on a $100 bet. While the potential payout for Manente might seem tempting, several factors suggest this fight is unlikely to swing in his favor.
Tero’s recent performances have been nothing short of spectacular. With two wins by knockout, he has demonstrated both power and precision in stand-up exchanges—a critical edge in this matchup. His grappling skills are also noteworthy, as highlighted by former UFC fighter Brad Pickett. If the fight transitions to the ground, Tero’s superior wrestling could prove decisive. Moreover, fighting in his hometown of Manchester provides an additional psychological boost due to crowd support. The combination of his skill set, momentum, and environmental advantage makes Tero a formidable opponent who appears well-prepared to extend his unbeaten streak.
On the other hand, Davide Manente enters this contest amidst a challenging phase of his career. His current record stands at 0-2-1, with losses coming via submission and decision—both areas where Tero excels. Analysts have pointed out that Manente’s best chance lies in striking exchanges, but even here, he faces an uphill battle against someone whose knockout ability has already been showcased. Additionally, there are concerns about whether Manente can sustain pressure over three rounds, given his tendency to fade in previous fights. While some may view his status as a heavy underdog as an opportunity for a high-reward upset, the evidence suggests otherwise.