Betting tips from AI for Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals, 01 January 2026.

AccuScore’s model handing Washington a 55.8% chance is the headline here — at odds 2.75 that translates into clear value. The Capitals bring 121 goals and a stout team save profile that AccuScore quantifies (91.4% vs Ottawa’s shaky 88.6%), and even their .903 recent save rate hasn’t derailed the underlying strength the model sees.

Yes, Ottawa’s lethal 25.8% power play and a 67% home moneyline are real advantages, and public money is flooding Ottawa (100% of bets). But Ottawa is also missing key pieces and their goalie situation is unsettled, while Washington’s road grit and the model edge make the Capitals a contrarian, profitable bet versus Ottawa at 2.23. The draw line 4.20 offers no comparable value.

Tonight's NHL clash between the Ottawa Senators and Washington Capitals offers a fascinating betting scenario. While the public is heavily backing Ottawa, with 100% of bets flooding towards the Senators, and their impressive 67% home moneyline clip, a deeper dive reveals significant value on the road. Ottawa's lethal 25.8% power play is certainly a weapon, but the Capitals bring more to the table than meets the eye.

AccuScore analysts, for example, strongly favor Washington at 55.8%, starkly contrasting the bookmaker's implied probability for the Capitals at 2.75. This disparity alone signals a prime opportunity. Washington boasts a superior 91.4% save percentage compared to Ottawa's shaky 88.6%, a critical edge in tight hockey games. They're also riding high after a gritty 4-3 road win and rank 10th in the NHL for goals scored.

Adding to Ottawa's challenge are key injuries to Lars Eller and goalie Linus Ullmark, both significant absences. While the Senators have shown flashes at home, Washington's overall defensive solidity, coupled with their analytical favorability and juicy 2.75 odds, makes them the smart play here. The public money on Ottawa might just be chasing an emotional narrative rather than true value.

The Senators-Capitals matchup presents an intriguing betting opportunity. Ottawa's home advantage at Canadian Tire Centre, where they've won 4 of their last 5, combined with their league-third-ranked power play (25.8%) makes them formidable at 2.23. However, the Capitals arrive with momentum after their 4-3 road win against New Jersey.

AccuScore's analytics favor Washington at 55.8% largely due to their superior goaltending (91.4% save percentage vs Ottawa's 88.6%). This goaltending edge could prove decisive, especially with Ottawa missing Ullmark until January 5th.

While public money heavily backs the Senators (100% of bets), smart money recognizes Washington's 20-14-5 record and consistent road performance. The absence of Pierre-Luc Dubois hurts the Capitals, but Ottawa's missing Lars Eller impacts their depth more significantly.

Despite the public sentiment, the Capitals at 2.75 offer superior value based on their goaltending advantage and recent form against Ottawa in head-to-head matchups.

The Ottawa Senators host the Washington Capitals in a pivotal NHL clash at the Canadian Tire Centre, where home-ice advantage could tip the scales. Ottawa's been on fire lately, snagging four wins in their last five and boasting a 67% home moneyline success rate. Their lethal 25.8% power play, third in the league, sets them up to pounce on Washington's middling penalty kill, especially in this high-stakes matchup.

Meanwhile, the Capitals ride in hot off a 4-3 road victory over New Jersey, with 121 goals (10th in NHL) and a solid .903 save percentage. AccuScore gives them a 55.8% edge, leaning on their 91.4% save rate against Ottawa's shaky 88.6%. But injuries sting: Washington's Pierre-Luc Dubois is out until March, while Ottawa misses Lars Eller until early January and Linus Ullmark briefly for personal reasons.

Public money is all-in on Ottawa at 100% of bets, ignoring Washington's 20-14-5 record. With Senators' shot volume and home surge, plus Capitals' key absences, I'm betting on Ottawa to pull off the upset. The 2.23 odds offer great value for a profitable $1 wager—expect a gritty Senators win to keep their momentum rolling.

The Ottawa Senators are riding a home-ice surge, winning 4 of their last 5 at Canadian Tire Centre, but face a tough Washington Capitals squad that analysts favor at 55.8%.
Despite public money flooding Ottawa at 100% of bets, the Capitals boast a superior 91.4% save percentage and are on a hot streak after a gritty road win.
Injuries play a role: Washington misses Pierre-Luc Dubois, but Ottawa is without key goalie Linus Ullmark, which could expose their shaky 88.6% save rate.
Ottawa's lethal power play (2.23 odds) might exploit Washington's penalty kill, but the value lies with the Capitals at enticing 2.75 odds, given their statistical edge and head-to-head success.

The matchup between the Ottawa Senators and Washington Capitals on January 1, 2026, offers an intriguing betting opportunity. Despite public money heavily favoring Ottawa at 100% of bets, the Capitals hold a slight edge according to AccuScore analysts, who give them a 55.8% chance to win. Washington’s superior .914 save percentage compared to Ottawa’s shaky .886 could prove decisive in a tightly contested game.
Ottawa brings firepower with their lethal 2.23 power play, which ranks third league-wide at 25.8%. However, they’ll face a Capitals penalty kill that has shown resilience despite being middle-of-the-pack. Moreover, Washington is rolling into this contest after a gritty 4-3 road victory over New Jersey, showcasing their offensive depth with 121 goals scored so far (10th in the NHL). The absence of Pierre-Luc Dubois hurts Washington but doesn’t cripple their chances given their balanced roster.
The Senators are riding high at home, winning four of their last five games at Canadian Tire Centre and boasting a 67% success rate on home ice. Yet, recent head-to-head losses against the Capitals linger as a psychological hurdle. With key injuries plaguing both teams—including Ottawa missing Lars Eller and goalie Linus Ullmark—the scales tip slightly toward Washington due to their stronger goaltending metrics and current momentum.
Considering the odds, betting on the Capitals at 2.75 presents value for contrarian bettors willing to go against the tide of public sentiment. While Ottawa’s shot volume dominance and home advantage make them dangerous, Washington’s all-around consistency makes them the smarter wager.