Betting tips from AI for Peyton Stearns vs Amanda Anisimova, 24 January 2026.

Bookmaker prices sit at 6.15 for Peyton Stearns and 1.16 for Amanda Anisimova. Dimers' model gives Anisimova an ~83% chance, leaving about a 17% chance for Stearns — slightly higher than the implied probability from the market on Stearns, creating a small positive edge.
An EV check: a $1 wager on Stearns at 6.15 returns ~$5.15 on a win, so with a 17% chance that’s roughly +$0.045 expected profit per $1 versus taking the heavy favorite. Anisimova’s form and straight-set wins make her the likeliest winner, but Stearns’ recent upsets, aggressive forehand and a 1-0 H2H edge give this underdog value. I recommend a small, value bet on Stearns.

Amanda Anisimova enters this Australian Open showdown as the undeniable favorite, with bookmakers placing her at a steep 1.16. Her dominant form, including a perfect set record and a convincing 6-1, 6-4 victory yesterday, is further bolstered by advanced models giving her an 83% chance of progressing. The market clearly expects a comfortable Anisimova win.

However, a shrewd bettor seeks value, not just the perceived winner. Peyton Stearns, priced at 6.15, has shown remarkable resilience, stunning Sofia Kenin and Petra Marcinko in straight sets to reach this stage. While her 1-0 H2H lead against Anisimova wasn't on a major hardcourt, it adds an interesting layer to this matchup.

The key to this pick lies in the slight discrepancy between Anisimova's implied win probability from the 1.16 odds (around 86.5%) and the Dimers model's 83% projection. This suggests a minor overvaluation of Anisimova by the market. Consequently, Stearns' implied probability of 16.3% at 6.15 might be slightly undervalued compared to her true chance. Given the goal is to maximize profit from a $1 bet, identifying this marginal market inefficiency for Stearns makes her the more profitable, albeit higher-risk, wager. It's a calculated gamble on an in-form underdog with a favorable, albeit small, edge.

Amanda Anisimova enters this third-round clash as the overwhelming favorite at 1.16, and the advanced metrics support this line. Dimers' model gives her an 83% win probability, aligning closely with bookmakers' 86% implied probability. Anisimova has been flawless in Melbourne, not dropping a set en route to the third round, including an impressive 6-1, 6-4 dismantling of Katerina Siniakova.

While Stearns holds a 1-0 head-to-head advantage and has shown promise with straight-set victories over Sofia Kenin and Petra Marcinko, her 1-2 season start contrasts sharply with Anisimova's momentum. The No. 4 seed's form on hard courts makes the 6.15 odds on Stearns appear generous but ultimately misleading.

Anisimova's superior ranking, recent form, and technical proficiency on Melbourne's hard courts should overcome Stearns' aggressive forehand. Despite Stearns' underdog appeal, Anisimova's consistency and tournament pedigree make her the smart money in this all-American showdown.

In this electrifying third-round clash at the Australian Open Women's, Amanda Anisimova enters as the clear favorite against underdog Peyton Stearns, with betting lines reflecting her dominance at 1.16 to Stearns' 6.15. Anisimova, the No. 4 seed, has been a force on Melbourne's hard courts, cruising through her matches without dropping a set, including a commanding 6-1, 6-4 win over Katerina Siniakova yesterday. Her 83% win probability per Dimers' model underscores her edge, especially in the opening set, backed by her flawless tournament run alongside American stars like Pegula and Keys.

Stearns, meanwhile, has been the surprise package, stunning Sofia Kenin and Petra Marcinko in straight sets to advance, her fierce forehand lighting up the court despite a shaky 1-2 season start. Journalists at Last Word on Tennis raved about her aggressive style in predicting her prior win, and she holds a 1-0 H2H edge over Anisimova—though that was no major hardcourt battle. Still, Anisimova's superior experience and form on this stage should overpower Stearns' momentum, making her the smart bet to advance to the round of 16.

Amanda Anisimova is the heavy favorite here, with Dimers' advanced model giving her an 83% shot at cruising past Peyton Stearns. She's in dominant form, having powered through Katerina Siniakova 6-1, 6-4 and staying perfect in sets at this Australian Open.

Stearns has shown fierce forehand play with straight-set wins over Sofia Kenin and Petra Marcinko, and she holds a 1-0 H2H edge. However, this is their first major hardcourt clash, and Anisimova's experience and power as the No. 4 seed are key.

The odds at 1.16 for Anisimova reflect her high implied probability, while Stearns at 6.15 offers underdog value. Yet, Anisimova's consistency and recent performances make her the likely victor in this third-round showdown.

Amanda Anisimova enters this match as a strong favorite, with bookmakers giving her odds of 1.16 against Peyton Stearns. The No. 4 seed has been in impressive form, not dropping a set so far at the Australian Open, and her recent victory over Katerina Siniakova further cements her status as a top contender. Dimers' advanced model also backs Anisimova with an 83% chance of winning, highlighting her dominance on Melbourne's hard courts. Despite Stearns' commendable run, which includes straight-set wins over Sofia Kenin and Petra Marcinko, the gap in experience and current form tilts the balance heavily in Anisimova's favor. While Stearns' aggressive style and rising form cannot be overlooked, the odds and recent performances suggest that Anisimova is the safer bet to advance to the round of 16.