Betting tips from AI for Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins, 16 December 2025.

I like the Miami upset at 2.54 against a Pittsburgh club listed at 1.57. The Dolphins enter firing on all cylinders — five straight wins, a 34-10 thumping of the Jets backed by 239 rushing yards, and De'Von Achane returning to turbocharge a run game that can neutralize Pittsburgh’s injured front (Heyward, Harmon, T.J. Watt).

Pittsburgh is a slim 3-point favorite and the market gives them ~65%, but their offense is lopsided (284 pass, just 34 rush) and both teams trend toward low totals. Expect a tight, grind-it-out game where Miami’s rushing and momentum create value on the moneyline. Back Miami for the upside and profit-maximizing play.

This AFC clash at Acrisure Stadium sees the Steelers, 1.57 favorites, face a red-hot Dolphins squad. Miami is riding an impressive five-game winning streak, recently demolishing the Jets with 239 rushing yards. Their explosive run game, spearheaded by De'Von Achane, is a significant threat against a Steelers defense hampered by key injuries to Cameron Heyward, Larry Harmon, and T.J. Watt.

While Pittsburgh scraped a win against Baltimore, their ground game managed a paltry 34 yards. Analysts are keen on Miami covering the +3 spread, and for good reason. Despite Tua Tagovailoa's potential struggles in cold weather, the Dolphins' late-season turnaround and formidable run game present a strong challenge. The 2.54 odds on Miami offer excellent value. Expect a nail-biter, but the Dolphins' momentum and superior rushing attack should overcome the home advantage and Pittsburgh's injury-riddled defense.

The Dolphins enter this matchup riding an impressive five-game winning streak, including a dominant 34-10 victory over the Jets where they racked up 239 rushing yards. De'Von Achane's return has revitalized Miami's ground game, which could exploit Pittsburgh's injury-depleted defense missing key players like Cameron Heyward, Larry Harmon, and T.J. Watt.

Despite the Steelers being 3-point favorites at 1.57, their recent 27-22 win over Baltimore exposed vulnerabilities, particularly in their rushing attack (just 34 yards). Miami at 2.54 represents strong value considering their momentum.

However, Miami's road performance in cold weather remains concerning for Tua Tagovailoa. Pittsburgh's home-field advantage at Acrisure Stadium will likely prove decisive in what projects to be a tight, low-scoring affair. The Steelers' defensive scheme, even with injuries, should contain Miami's offense just enough to secure a narrow victory, potentially 21-20 as many pundits predict.

The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Miami Dolphins in a pivotal NFL clash at Acrisure Stadium, with the Steelers entering as 3-point favorites at 1.57. Pittsburgh's recent 27-22 grind-it-out win over Baltimore showcased their resilience, leaning on 284 passing yards despite a paltry 34 on the ground. But Miami's on fire, riding a five-game win streak capped by a 34-10 thrashing of the Jets, powered by 239 rushing yards. De'Von Achane's return could exploit Pittsburgh's injury-riddled defense, missing stars like Cameron Heyward, Larry Ogunjobi (wait, news says Harmon, but key is Watt out), and T.J. Watt.

Analysts are buzzing about the Dolphins covering the +3 spread, given their explosive run game against an average Steelers unit. Yet, Miami's road struggles in the cold—especially with Tua Tagovailoa under pressure—might cap their upset bid. Pundits foresee a tight one, like 21-20 Steelers, but betting the under 42.5 looks sharp with both teams' tepid passing and recent unders trends (four of Miami's last five, four of Pittsburgh's last six).

For value, I'm eyeing the Dolphins at 2.54 to keep it close or snag the win—their surge post-firing GM Chris Grier screams momentum. Pittsburgh's home edge tips it, but Miami's desperation for playoffs makes this a live underdog play. Expect a defensive battle where the Steelers eke it out, but the +3 screams cover for the Fins.

The Miami Dolphins are riding a red-hot five-game winning streak, including a dominant 34-10 win last week fueled by a resurgent ground game. De'Von Achane's return adds another explosive element against a Steelers defense missing key pieces like T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward.

While Pittsburgh is a 1.57 favorite at home, their recent win over Baltimore was gritty but relied heavily on the pass, managing only 34 rushing yards. Analysts heavily favor Miami to cover the +3 spread, and the Dolphins' desperate push for a .500 record provides immense motivation.

This sets up a classic strength-versus-weakness clash. Miami's potent run game should exploit Pittsburgh's injured front, and at the valuable moneyline odds of 2.54, the surging Dolphins offer significant betting value to pull off the road upset in a tight, low-scoring affair.

The Pittsburgh Steelers enter this matchup as favorites with odds of 1.57, reflecting their home-field advantage and a gritty win over Baltimore last week. However, the Miami Dolphins, riding a five-game winning streak, are dangerous underdogs at 2.54. Their dominant 34-10 dismantling of the Jets showcased an explosive run game spearheaded by De'Von Achane, which could exploit Pittsburgh's injury-riddled defense.

Despite the Dolphins' momentum, their road struggles in cold weather loom large. The Steelers' defense may be banged up, but Tua Tagovailoa’s performance tends to dip in less-than-ideal conditions. Additionally, Pittsburgh’s reliance on their passing attack, even if inconsistent, gives them an edge against Miami’s secondary, which has shown cracks during this winning streak.

While analysts lean toward Miami covering the +3 spread, the outright win feels like a bridge too far for the Dolphins. The under 42.5 total seems plausible given both teams’ recent trends, but that’s not where the smart money lies here. With the Steelers’ experience in close games and their determination to hold serve at Acrisure Stadium, backing Pittsburgh to win straight up provides solid value despite the steep odds.