Betting tips from AI for Rei Sakamoto vs Rafael Jodar, 20 January 2026.

Teen showdown in Melbourne: both teenagers stormed qualifying — Sakamoto crushed qualifying without dropping a set and boasts three Challenger titles and a 6-1, 6-2 win over Dan Evans, while Jodar is fresh off UVA stardom, three Challenger crowns and tidy qualifying wins. Their lone junior meeting went Jodar’s way 6-3, 6-1.
The book makes Jodar the clear favorite 1.47 with Sakamoto the live outsider 2.85. Analysts peg Jodar at ~65% to win; his heavy forehand and cleaner court striking should neutralize Sakamoto’s big serve-and-attack game. A $1 back on Jodar at 1.47 returns about $1.47 total if he wins — given form, head-to-head and style match-up, I back Rafael Jodar to advance.

This opening-round clash at the Australian Open men's main draw pits two rising stars against each other: former junior champions Rei Sakamoto and Rafael Jodar. Bookmakers have installed Jodar as the favorite at 1.47, a sentiment echoed by analysts who give him a 65% win probability. This isn't surprising given their sole previous encounter, where Jodar decisively dispatched Sakamoto with a 1.06-3, 6-1 victory in the 2024 US Open juniors semifinal.

Both players arrive in Melbourne in stellar form, having breezed through qualifying. Sakamoto, the towering Japanese teen, didn't drop a set and notably crushed former top-20 player Dan Evans 1.06-1, 6-2. Jodar, fresh off his college stardom and turning pro last month, also powered through, including a 1.06-2, 6-1 win over Aussie wildcard Li Tu. However, Jodar's historical dominance over Sakamoto, coupled with the experts' analysis suggesting he uses heavy forehands to push Sakamoto back, gives him the decisive edge in this highly anticipated matchup.

This first-round Australian Open clash pits two rising stars against each other, both making their Grand Slam main draw debuts. While Sakamoto impressed in qualifying without dropping a set and has three Challenger titles to his name, Jodar's previous head-to-head dominance (6-3, 6-1 win at US Open juniors) cannot be overlooked. The odds favor Jodar at 1.47 versus Sakamoto's 2.85, reflecting Jodar's tactical advantage.

Jodar's heavy forehand spin creates problems for Sakamoto's aggressive style. The Spanish youngster's recent transition from college tennis to the pro circuit has been seamless, as evidenced by his commanding qualifier performances. While Sakamoto's height gives him serving advantages, Jodar's experience against the Japanese player and superior court movement should prove decisive.

Expect Jodar to neutralize Sakamoto's second-serve attacks by pushing him behind the baseline with those spinning forehands, ultimately securing a four-set victory and advancing to face either Mensik or Carreno Busta.

In the electrifying first-round clash at the 2026 Australian Open Men's Singles, two prodigious teens light up Melbourne: Japan's towering Rei Sakamoto, the 2024 AO boys' champ with three Challenger titles under his belt, faces Spain's Rafael Jodar, the US Open junior kingpin who just turned pro after dominating UVA college tennis.

Sakamoto stormed through qualifiers unscathed, demolishing ex-top-20 Dan Evans 6-1, 6-2, showcasing his aggressive second-serve attacks that could disrupt Jodar's rhythm early. Yet, Jodar holds the psychological edge from their 2024 US Open juniors semifinal, where he dismantled Sakamoto 6-3, 6-1 with blistering forehands.

Bookmakers reflect this, installing Jodar as a solid favorite at 1.47 against Sakamoto's 2.85, aligning with analysts' 65% win probability for the Spaniard. Jodar's recent qualifier wins, including a tiebreak thriller over Chris Rodesch and a 6-2, 6-1 thrashing of Li Tu, underline his heavy-spin game suited to Melbourne's courts.

While Sakamoto's height and power make him a live underdog, Jodar's experience and head-to-head dominance tip the scales. For bettors eyeing value, Jodar's path to a second-round showdown with Mensik or Carreno Busta screams profitability—back him to spin his way to victory in a tight three-setter.

Teen sensations collide in a mouthwatering Australian Open first-round clash. Rei Sakamoto arrives scalding hot, bulldozing through qualifying without conceding a set, capped by a demolition of former top-20 stalwart Dan Evans. Rafael Jodar, the US Open junior champ, carries a psychological edge from a dominant junior win over Sakamoto and has powered through his own qualifying bracket.

However, Sakamoto's monstrous form and aggressive second-serve assault plan present immense value at enticing odds of 2.85. Jodar, while favored at 1.47, may find Sakamoto's power and confidence too much to handle in this high-stakes debut. Betting on the Japanese teen's momentum offers a lucrative opportunity.

This Australian Open first-round clash between Rei Sakamoto and Rafael Jodar offers a fascinating glimpse into the future of men’s tennis. Both players arrive with impressive junior pedigrees and burgeoning professional careers, but their trajectories suggest Jodar holds the edge. The Spaniard turned heads with his dominant run through qualifying, including a clinical dismantling of Chris Rodesch in a tiebreak thriller. His heavy forehand and relentless baseline game align perfectly with hard-court conditions in Melbourne.

Sakamoto, however, is no slouch. The Japanese star’s recent demolition of Dan Evans underscores his potential to trouble top-tier opponents. Yet, history tilts this matchup toward Jodar, who defeated Sakamoto 6-3, 6-1 in their lone encounter at the 2024 US Open juniors. Analysts assign Jodar a 65% win probability, reflecting his consistency and mental fortitude under pressure.

The odds further emphasize this dynamic: Sakamoto at 2.85 presents tempting value, but Jodar’s 1.47 reflects his status as a deserved favorite. Given the context, backing Jodar seems prudent despite the shorter return on investment. His aggressive yet measured style should overpower Sakamoto’s high-risk approach.