Betting tips from AI for Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen, 19 September 2025.

This matchup is a fascinating clash between two elite grapplers with very different pathways to victory. Reinier de Ridder is a chain-wrestling, back-taking specialist who builds leads through clinch control and top pressure, while Brendan Allen blends crisp forward-pressure striking with opportunistic submissions in transitions. On paper, the book has de Ridder as a rightful favorite at 1.65, but the stylistic layers suggest the gap is narrower than that price implies, giving the plus-money side on Allen at 2.35 real betting value.

De Ridder’s best minutes come when he can secure body locks against the fence, trip to top, and methodically work to the back. He excels at making opponents carry his weight and forcing them into mistake-prone scrambles. If he gets early dominant positions, he can bank rounds or even find the choke. However, his entries are often linear and commitment-heavy; when the first squeeze doesn’t stick, he can be stuck at single legs or extended clinches that burn energy. That’s precisely where Allen’s game thrives.

Allen is a dangerous front-headlock and back-take grappler who punishes overextended shots with guillotines, anaconda variants, and quick turns to the back. More importantly for scoring minutes, he’s the more comfortable striker at range. His jab, body work, and calf kicks can accumulate damage while keeping de Ridder honest on level changes. If this spends meaningful time on the feet, Allen’s output and accuracy should sway optics and judges, and his scrambling ability minimizes the risk of being held inert on the mat.

Cardio and pace dynamics also lean toward Allen. In a 3-rounder, his pressure can flip late-round optics after early clinch stalls. In a 5-rounder, the compounding effect of striking volume and defensive grappling becomes even more pronounced. De Ridder is superb when ahead and in control; he’s far less comfortable winning a kickboxing match or repeatedly re-taking the same dominant position against an opponent who scrambles as well as Allen.

Durability is another subtle factor. De Ridder’s grappling-first style can mask striking liabilities, but when extended on the feet he’s hittable, and Allen’s body-head combinations and counters can destabilize entries. Conversely, Allen’s historical lapses have come from defensive lapses early; yet his recent form shows improved composure, shot selection, and fight IQ—especially in choosing when to sprawl-and-brawl versus chase the mat.

From a numbers perspective, 1.65 implies roughly a 60–61% win probability for de Ridder, while 2.35 pegs Allen near 42–43%. Given the style-on-style dynamics, a more reasonable cap feels closer to a coin flip with a slight lean to Allen if the bout extends and stays mixed. That means the underdog price carries the superior expected value even if de Ridder remains the more “positional” grappler on paper.

Pathways to victory are clear: de Ridder by early back take/control or a club-and-sub sequence off clinch ties; Allen by winning the striking exchanges, stuffing or punishing entries, and turning scrambles into his own submission or cumulative damage. The latter scenario materializes often enough to justify the dog shot. If live betting is available, an even stronger angle is Allen after Round 1 if he’s defended the initial blitz and the price is still plus money.

Bottom line: the favorite has a clean path, but the matchup tax on de Ridder looks a touch steep. Allen’s broader minute-winning toolkit and finishing upside at a positive price is the smarter $1 stab here.

This hypothetical matchup presents a classic MMA puzzle: the specialist versus the well-rounded contender. Reinier de Ridder, 'The Dutch Knight', is one of the most feared submission artists in the sport today. His path to victory is clear and brutally effective: close the distance, utilize his judo to secure a takedown, and chain submission attempts until his opponent taps. His long frame makes him a nightmare on the mat, allowing him to establish body triangles and control opponents with suffocating pressure. As a two-division champion in ONE, his pedigree is undeniable, and his status as the 1.65 favorite reflects the respect oddsmakers have for his elite grappling.

However, Brendan Allen represents a significant and dangerous challenge. While de Ridder is a specialist, Allen is a jack-of-all-trades and a master of many. Currently riding a hot streak in the UFC's notoriously deep middleweight division, Allen has evolved from a submission threat into a complete mixed martial artist. His striking has improved exponentially, showcasing genuine knockout power and increased confidence on the feet. This is the single biggest factor in the fight. De Ridder's striking remains a liability, as brutally exposed in his knockout loss to Anatoly Malykhin. Allen possesses the power and technique to find de Ridder's chin and end the fight before it ever hits the mat.

Of course, the fight will likely be decided in the grappling exchanges. Can Allen survive on the ground with de Ridder? The answer is likely yes. Allen is a legitimate BJJ black belt himself and has demonstrated excellent scrambling ability and submission defense throughout his UFC tenure. He may not be on de Ridder's level in pure BJJ, but he is far from a novice and is skilled enough to defend, survive, and work his way back to his feet. De Ridder's entire game plan hinges on his ability to dominate the grappling, but Allen has the skills to turn it into a grueling, two-way battle.

Given the stylistic dynamics, the value lies firmly with the underdog. Allen has multiple paths to victory: a knockout on the feet, out-scrambling de Ridder on the mat, or winning a decision by stuffing takedowns and winning the stand-up exchanges. De Ridder's path is much narrower. When you factor in Allen's momentum and proven durability against top-tier competition, taking him at 2.35 odds is the strategic play. He has the tools to defuse de Ridder's primary weapon and exploit his most significant weakness.

This middleweight clash presents a fascinating stylistic matchup between two elite grapplers with contrasting career trajectories. Reinier de Ridder enters as the favorite at 1.65, while Brendan Allen sits at 2.35, creating an intriguing betting scenario.

De Ridder brings an impressive resume as a former two-division champion in ONE Championship, holding titles at both middleweight and light heavyweight simultaneously. His grappling credentials are exceptional, with 11 of his 16 wins coming via submission. The Dutch fighter's ability to seamlessly transition between striking and grappling makes him incredibly dangerous in mixed martial arts. His recent performances have showcased improved striking defense and cage awareness, addressing previous vulnerabilities.

Brendan Allen represents the hungry contender looking to make a statement. With a 23-5 record, Allen has demonstrated remarkable finishing ability, securing 15 submission victories. His jiu-jitsu is world-class, and he's shown significant improvements in his takedown game and overall MMA wrestling. Allen's youth and activity level could prove advantageous in a potentially grueling contest.

The key factor in this matchup lies in the grappling exchanges and who can impose their game first. While both fighters excel on the ground, de Ridder's experience at the highest levels of competition gives him a crucial edge. His ability to remain calm under pressure and find submission opportunities even when seemingly in trouble has been a hallmark of his career.

Allen's path to victory requires aggressive early pressure and potentially catching de Ridder in scrambles where his athleticism can shine. However, de Ridder's technical precision and championship experience suggest he'll find ways to neutralize Allen's strengths while capitalizing on any openings.

The odds reflect de Ridder's proven track record at elite levels, but Allen's value as an underdog makes this an interesting betting proposition. Given de Ridder's championship pedigree and technical advantages, backing the favorite appears to be the most profitable long-term strategy despite the lower payout.

When it comes to MMA betting, the matchup between Reinier de Ridder and Brendan Allen on September 18, 2025, is one that has fans buzzing. De Ridder, the Dutch grappling wizard, enters as the favorite with odds of 1.65, meaning you'd need to bet $155 to win $100. On the flip side, Allen sits as the underdog at 2.35, offering a potential $135 profit on a $100 wager. This middleweight clash pits de Ridder's elite submission game against Allen's well-rounded striking and wrestling prowess, and as a betting expert, I'm leaning towards the value in the underdog here.

Let's break down de Ridder's strengths first. Known for his time in ONE Championship, where he held titles in two divisions, de Ridder is a judo black belt with a nasty ground game. He's finished 12 of his 17 wins by submission, showcasing his ability to drag fights to the mat and dominate. His last few outings have been impressive, including a quick arm-triangle choke victory that reminded everyone of his technical superiority on the ground. At 6'4" with a 79-inch reach, he can control distance and use his length to set up takedowns. However, his striking defense has been questioned in the past— he's been clipped before, and against a power puncher like Allen, that could be a vulnerability.

Brendan Allen, the American from Louisiana, brings a different flavor to this fight. With a record of 23-5, he's on a hot streak in the UFC, winning six of his last seven. Allen's grappling is no joke either; he's a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with 12 submission wins himself. But what sets him apart is his striking volume and power—he averages 3.5 significant strikes per minute and has knockout wins that highlight his finishing ability. His wrestling allows him to dictate where the fight goes, and unlike de Ridder, who sometimes struggles in prolonged stand-up exchanges, Allen thrives in the pocket. Remember his TKO over Paul Craig? That showed his ability to mix levels and overwhelm opponents.

From a betting perspective, the odds feel a bit off to me. De Ridder is transitioning from ONE to potentially UFC-level competition, and while his skills are top-tier, Allen has been battle-tested against UFC's middleweight elite like Chris Curtis and Andre Muniz. De Ridder's chin hasn't been truly tested against heavy hitters, and Allen's 69% takedown defense could keep this fight standing, where he holds the edge. If Allen stuffs early takedowns and turns this into a striking affair, he could wear de Ridder down over three rounds or find a finish.

Statistically, de Ridder lands takedowns at a 55% clip, but against someone like Allen, who boasts an 80% takedown defense in recent fights, that might not cut it. Allen's cardio is solid, averaging fights going into later rounds without gassing, whereas de Ridder has shown some fatigue in longer bouts. The fight being at middleweight plays to Allen's strengths, as he's more comfortable here than de Ridder, who has fought up at light heavyweight.

For bettors, this screams value on Allen. The 2.35 underdog line offers solid returns, and with my $1 bet simulation, I'd place it on Allen for a potential $1.35 profit. Sure, de Ridder could snatch a submission early, but I see Allen's experience and striking giving him the upset win via decision or late TKO. It's a close one, but the smart money is on the dog in this spot.

In terms of intangibles, Allen's momentum can't be ignored—he's climbing the ranks with purpose, while de Ridder might face some ring rust or adjustment to new rulesets. Fans love these grappler vs. striker matchups, and this one has all the makings of a barnburner. If you're betting, consider live options too; if de Ridder fails early takedowns, Allen's price will skyrocket in-play.

This middleweight clash between Reinier de Ridder and Brendan Allen presents an intriguing stylistic matchup between two elite grapplers. De Ridder, the former ONE Championship double champ, boasts world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and suffocating top control that's earned him 15 career submissions. However, he enters on a concerning two-fight KO skid against Anatoly Malykhin, raising questions about his durability at 34 years old. At 1.65, the odds imply a 60.8% win probability that feels inflated given these red flags.

Brendan Allen at 2.35 offers tremendous value as the younger (29), more active fighter riding a six-bout UFC win streak. His relentless pace and improved wrestling have overwhelmed opponents, while his 12 career submissions prove he won't be outmatched on the mat. Allen's UFC experience against elite competition translates better to high-pressure situations than de Ridder's ONE Championship dominance against lower-tier grapplers.

The key lies in Allen's ability to survive early positional battles and force de Ridder into later rounds where his cardio and recent KO vulnerability could surface. While de Ridder's front-choke threats remain dangerous, Allen's defensive grappling has held up against superior strikers, and his opportunistic submission game could capitalize on any fatigue-induced mistakes. This fight leans toward a likely decision or late Allen submission as de Ridder's recent layoff and knockout trauma resurface.

Reinier de Ridder enters this bout as a seasoned mixed martial artist with an impressive undefeated record and a highly technical grappling style that has dominated opponents across promotions. His background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, coupled with his ability to control fights on the ground, makes him a formidable force against anyone in his weight class. De Ridder’s striking, while not his primary strength, has shown steady improvement over time, allowing him to maintain composure even when exchanges occur in open space. Brendan Allen, on the other hand, brings his own set of skills to the octagon. Known for his relentless pace and well-rounded skillset, Allen excels both on the feet and on the mat. He is particularly dangerous in close quarters where he can leverage his power and explosiveness to overwhelm opponents. However, Allen’s tendency to engage in high-risk exchanges sometimes leaves him vulnerable against more calculated fighters.
De Ridder’s defensive grappling will likely play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of this fight. With odds favoring him at 1.65, it’s clear that bookmakers see him as the favorite based on his consistency and elite-level submission defense. For Allen to pull off an upset, he’ll need to find ways to neutralize de Ridder’s takedowns and keep the fight standing—something easier said than done given de Ridder’s timing and precision from the clinch. Additionally, Allen’s aggression could backfire if de Ridder capitalizes on mistakes during scrambles or transitions.
One key factor working in de Ridder’s favor is his adaptability. Throughout his career, he has shown the ability to adjust mid-fight and exploit weaknesses in his opponent’s game plan. This mental fortitude gives him a significant edge over Allen, who occasionally struggles under pressure. While Allen’s odds of +2.35 might tempt bettors looking for value, the risk associated with backing him seems too high considering de Ridder’s dominance in similar matchups.