Betting tips from AI for Ricky Simon vs Raoni Barcelos, 08 November 2025.

Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos is a classic clash of pressure wrestling versus composed counterstriking, and both men arrive in Las Vegas with momentum and clean bills of health. Simon rides back-to-back wins, including a statement first-round KO of Javid Basharat in February and a clear decision over Cameron Smotherman in June. Barcelos counters with his own resurgence, highlighted by a unanimous decision over former champ Cody Garbrandt after prior victories against Payton Talbott and Cristian Quiñonez. With both in form and no injuries reported, we can focus purely on style, venue, and pricing.

At the UFC Apex, the smaller cage typically favors wrestlers and clinch grinders who cut angles and trap opponents against the fence. That’s Simon’s wheelhouse: level changes in volume, chain-wrestling persistence, and enough pop in his hands to make entries credible. When he builds top pressure early, he usually banks time in control, smothers frames, and turns rounds into rinse-and-repeat sequences. His recent KO underscores an uptick in confidence and shot selection that forces strikers to hesitate on counters.

Barcelos brings sharp boxing, punishing low kicks, and high-level grappling of his own. He’s compact, reads exchanges well, and counters clean when opponents overextend. The concern is that his strongest moments come when he sets his feet and picks shots at range—harder to sustain if Simon forces clinches, mat returns, and fence cycles. Over three rounds, one or two takedowns per frame, plus ride time, can be enough to tilt judges even if Barcelos lands the flashier moments.

Pricing matters. Simon at 1.60 implies he wins this matchup a little over three in five; that’s reasonable given the Apex cage, his pace, and his ability to bank control time. Barcelos at 2.42 is not mispriced—his clean counters and balance can create tense pockets—but he likely needs to win the first contact repeatedly and keep Simon off his hips for long stretches. That’s a tall order against a pressure wrestler who’s timing entries well. The draw at 50.00 is classic low-probability noise in a three-round bantamweight fight without a clear point-deduction dynamic.

The most probable script is Simon mixing jabs and level changes, pinning Barcelos to the fence, and piling up control with intermittent damage to secure a clear decision. Barcelos’ best path is early timing on counters or slicing calf kicks that stall entries, but if he can’t deter the shot, his windows narrow as the minutes stack up. With venue, form, and stylistic paths aligned, the straight moneyline on Simon is the highest percentage $1 play.

This bantamweight clash at UFC Vegas 111 presents a fascinating stylistic matchup between two fighters riding impressive win streaks. Ricky Simon enters as the favorite with odds of 1.60, and for good reason. His game is built on a foundation of relentless, high-level wrestling and a seemingly bottomless gas tank. Simon's primary path to victory is clear: close the distance, initiate the clinch, and chain takedown attempts until he can establish top control. Once on the mat, he is a master of control, grinding down opponents and accumulating points on the scorecards. His recent first-round knockout of Javid Basharat also serves as a stark reminder that his striking is becoming a legitimate threat, making him an even more dangerous puzzle to solve.

On the other side, Raoni Barcelos is a highly skilled and experienced veteran who offers significant value as an underdog at 2.42. The Brazilian is a technical striker with knockout power and holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, making him a threat in every phase of the fight. His recent unanimous decision victory over former champion Cody Garbrandt showcased his composure and well-rounded abilities. Barcelos's key to victory will be his takedown defense and his ability to punish Simon on the feet as he attempts to close the distance. If he can keep the fight standing, he possesses the more technical and diverse striking arsenal. Furthermore, his BJJ credentials mean he is a live threat for a submission off his back should Simon succeed with a takedown.

Despite Barcelos's clear paths to victory, Simon's style is notoriously difficult to negate over three rounds. His suffocating pressure has broken many skilled opponents before. While Barcelos has solid takedown defense, Simon's chain wrestling is on another level. He doesn't just shoot for one takedown; he relentlessly pursues it from multiple angles. In a three-round fight at the smaller UFC Apex cage, Simon will have ample opportunity to close the distance and implement his grappling-heavy game plan. While Barcelos could catch him coming in or threaten with a submission, the most probable outcome is Simon grinding out at least two of the three rounds through control, making him the more reliable bet.

As we gear up for UFC Vegas 111 on November 8, 2025, the bantamweight clash between Ricky Simon and Raoni Barcelos is shaping up to be a thrilling encounter at the UFC Apex. Simon enters as the favorite with odds of 1.60, reflecting his solid recent form, while Barcelos sits as the underdog at 2.42. But let's dive deeper into why this fight might not go as the bookies predict.

Ricky Simon has been on a roll, securing back-to-back victories that showcase his well-rounded skills. His first-round knockout of Javid Basharat in February 2025 demonstrated his explosive power and finishing ability, while the unanimous decision over Cameron Smotherman in June highlighted his grappling prowess and cardio. At 32, Simon is in his prime, with a record that includes wins over notable names like Song Yadong and Jack Shore. He's healthy, no injuries reported, and his wrestling background could be key in controlling the pace against Barcelos. However, Simon has shown vulnerabilities against elite strikers, and his last loss to Mario Bautista exposed some defensive holes in stand-up exchanges.

On the flip side, Raoni Barcelos is riding a wave of momentum that's hard to ignore. The 38-year-old Brazilian veteran stunned the division by outclassing former champion Cody Garbrandt in a unanimous decision win in June 2025. That victory came on the heels of dominant performances against Payton Talbott and Cristian Quiñonez, proving he's far from washed up. Barcelos brings a dangerous mix of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt skills and sharp striking, with a 70% finish rate in his wins. His experience against top-tier competition, including a previous UFC title challenger like Garbrandt, gives him an edge in high-stakes moments. No injuries for him either, so expect Barcelos to come in at peak condition.

Analyzing the matchup, this could be a striker vs. grappler affair, but both fighters are versatile. Simon might look to press with wrestling takedowns to neutralize Barcelos' striking, but the Brazilian's takedown defense stands at an impressive 80%, and his submission game could turn the tables on the ground. Barcelos has the reach advantage at 72 inches compared to Simon's 69, which might allow him to pick apart Simon from distance with crisp combinations. Recent form favors Barcelos slightly, as his win over Garbrandt—a fighter Simon has never faced—shows he can handle pressure better than expected.

From a betting perspective, the value lies with Barcelos at 2.42. The odds imply Simon has about a 62% chance of winning, but I see this closer to 50-50 given Barcelos' recent upsets and technical advantages. Simon's wins were against less proven opponents like Basharat and Smotherman, whereas Barcelos has battled and beaten championship-caliber talent. If Barcelos can keep it standing, his striking could lead to a decision or even a late finish. Don't sleep on the draw at 50.00, but it's unlikely in this division.

For bettors, I'd recommend a unit on Barcelos for the upset potential. His experience and current streak make him a live dog, especially in a three-round fight where endurance matters. Simon is reliable, but Barcelos' path to victory feels more defined here. This one's going to be a barnburner—tune in for what could be Fight of the Night material.

The highly anticipated bantamweight clash at UFC Vegas 111 features Ricky Simon and Raoni Barcelos, both in excellent health and riding winning streaks, setting the stage for a compelling matchup. Ricky Simon enters as the favorite with odds of 1.60, reflecting his impressive back-to-back victories, including a first-round knockout over Javid Basharat and a unanimous decision against Cameron Smotherman. These wins underscore his evolving striking power and confidence, making him a dangerous force in the division.

Raoni Barcelos, priced at 2.42, brings his own momentum from a decisive win over former champion Cody Garbrandt and consecutive triumphs against solid opponents. His well-rounded skills in striking and grappling make him a credible threat, but Simon's aggressive style and ability to finish fights early could overwhelm him. The key factor lies in Simon's wrestling pedigree combined with his recent KO prowess, which may exploit any defensive lapses in Barcelos's game.

From a betting perspective, Simon's odds offer value for a profitable wager. His implied probability of winning is approximately 62.5% based on the 1.60 line, but given his current form and lack of injuries, his actual chances appear higher, around 65-70%. This discrepancy suggests a positive expected value, making a bet on Simon a smart move for maximizing returns in the long run. Fans should watch for Simon to control the pace and seek an early finish, capitalizing on his momentum.

This matchup between Ricky Simon and Raoni Barcelos offers an intriguing clash of styles and momentum in the bantamweight division. Both fighters enter the bout with impressive streaks, making this a pivotal fight for their respective trajectories in the UFC rankings. Let’s break down the key factors that could influence the outcome.
Ricky Simon, currently favored at 1.60, has demonstrated exceptional form leading into this contest. His recent victories over Javid Basharat and Cameron Smotherman showcase his ability to finish fights decisively while also grinding out decisions when necessary. Simon’s wrestling-heavy style has proven effective against opponents who struggle to defend takedowns or withstand pressure. His first-round knockout of Basharat highlights an evolving striking game, adding another dimension to his arsenal. At 32 years old, Simon is in his athletic prime, and his consistency in training camps suggests he’ll be physically prepared for this challenge.
On the other hand, Raoni Barcelos, listed as the underdog at 2.42, brings a wealth of experience and versatility to the Octagon. His unanimous decision win over former champion Cody Garbrandt underscores his technical proficiency and adaptability. Barcelos possesses a well-rounded skill set, blending Brazilian jiu-jitsu with crisp striking fundamentals. He’s shown resilience and composure in high-pressure situations, qualities that serve him well against durable opponents like Simon. However, Barcelos tends to start slower in fights, which could be exploited by Simon’s relentless pace from the opening bell."The stylistic dynamics favor Simon in several ways. While Barcelos is undoubtedly dangerous on the feet, Simon’s superior wrestling and grappling acumen give him a clear path to victory. If Simon can impose his will early and control the fight on the mat, he’ll likely secure a dominant win. Additionally, Simon’s chin has been tested in tougher matchups compared to Barcelos, giving him an edge in exchanges where durability matters most."Considering the betting odds, there’s value in backing Simon despite the relatively steep price tag of 1.60. His track record of finishing fights or outworking opponents aligns perfectly with his role as the favorite. Meanwhile, Barcelos’ odds at 2.42 reflect his potential to pull off an upset but fail to account for Simon’s comprehensive skill set and current momentum. The astronomical draw odds of 50.00 make it a non-factor for serious bettors given the low likelihood of neither fighter emerging victorious.