Betting tips from AI for Roberto Carballes Baena vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly, 13 January 2026.

This Australian Open qualifying duel leans toward Roberto Carballes Baena. He arrives having crushed Arthur Bouquier 6-2, 6-2, carries the higher ranking (No.128 vs No.205) and a stronger recent win rate (67% to Bailly’s 50%), while Bailly’s best moment was a tidy 6-4, 6-4 win over Jack Pinnington Jones.
Baena’s clay-honed grind has translated into the hard-court toughness needed in qualifying, and the market reflects that: he’s the clear favorite at 1.43 while Bailly is listed at 2.92. Bailly has momentum from Canberra but lacks Baena’s consistency and margin for error in long rallies.
Prediction: Roberto Carballes Baena—his steadier form, ranking edge and ability to dictate baseline exchanges make him the higher-expected-value play in this matchup.

The Australian Open qualifiers present a fascinating clash between Roberto Carballes Baena and Gilles Arnaud Bailly. Baena, favored at 1.43, enters after a dominant 6-2, 6-2 win over Bouquier, showcasing his adaptability from clay to hard courts. His world No. 128 ranking and 67% recent win rate underline his consistency.

Bailly, priced at 2.92, also brings momentum, having dispatched Pinnington Jones 6-4, 6-4, proving his qualifier mettle. However, Baena's higher ranking and more convincing recent victory against a competitive field give him the edge. His experience in high-stakes qualifying matches, combined with superior current form metrics, makes him the safer pick to advance. While Bailly has shown flashes, Baena's overall game and recent performance suggest he's better equipped for this hard-court battle.

Roberto Carballes Baena enters this Australian Open qualifier with considerable momentum after dismantling Arthur Bouquier 6-2, 6-2. The Spaniard's clay-court expertise has translated surprisingly well to the hard courts, where he's showing improved movement and shot selection.

Bailly, while impressive in his 6-4, 6-4 victory over Jack Pinnington Jones, still shows vulnerability on faster surfaces. The Belgian youngster's recent Canberra heartbreak might linger mentally, despite his qualifier win.

The rankings tell a significant story here – Baena at 128 versus Bailly at 205 – highlighting the experience gap between these competitors. With a 67% recent win rate compared to Bailly's 50%, Baena demonstrates more consistency.

The 1.43 odds for Baena reflect his favorite status, but they're actually reasonable given the form disparity. While Bailly at 2.92 might tempt value seekers, Baena's superior hard-court adaptation and momentum make him the more reliable selection in their first-ever meeting.

In the Australian Open qualifying trenches, Roberto Carballes Baena enters as the clear favorite against Gilles Arnaud Bailly, and for good reason. Baena, ranked a solid No. 128, demolished Arthur Bouquier 6-2, 6-2 in his opener, translating his clay-court tenacity to hard courts with ruthless efficiency. That grit shines through in his recent Canberra outings, where he showed resilience despite mixed results.

Bailly, the No. 205 underdog, punched his ticket by edging Jack Pinnington Jones 6-4, 6-4, rebounding from a Canberra setback. His 50% recent win rate pales next to Baena's 67%, and this first-ever matchup favors the Spaniard's experience in high-stakes qualifiers.

The odds reflect this edge: Baena at 1.43 demands value for a straight-sets win, while Bailly's 2.92 tempts but overlooks the ranking and form gap. Betting on Baena locks in a profitable edge for steady returns in this main-draw battle.

Roberto Carballes Baena rides high from a crushing 6-2, 6-2 win, showcasing his clay-honed grit on hard courts at odds of 1.43. Gilles Arnaud Bailly mirrors this with a 6-4, 6-4 victory, proving his qualifier mettle at 2.92.

Baena's world No. 128 ranking and 67% recent win rate outshine Bailly's No. 205 and 50% rate, giving him a clear edge in their first-ever clash. With both fresh from Canberra tune-ups, Baena's consistency and higher level should secure a profitable victory in this Australian Open qualifier.

This Australian Open qualifying clash between Roberto Carballes Baena and Gilles Arnaud Bailly brings together two players riding waves of contrasting but promising form. Baena, ranked No. 128, has shown his mettle by dismantling Arthur Bouquier 6-2, 6-2 in his opener, a performance that highlighted his adaptability from clay to hard courts. His ability to impose himself with relentless baseline play makes him a formidable opponent, especially at odds of 1.43.

On the other side, Gilles Arnaud Bailly, ranked No. 205, is no stranger to pressure after bouncing back from a Canberra heartbreak to secure a convincing 6-4, 6-4 win over Jack Pinnington Jones. While his recent 50% win rate might lag behind Baena's 67%, Bailly's fighting spirit and knack for grinding out tough matches cannot be underestimated. At odds of 2.92, he presents an enticing underdog option.

However, Baena's superior ranking, consistent form, and dominant recent performances give him the edge. The Spaniard’s experience on bigger stages and his proven ability to close out matches cleanly suggest he will handle the occasion better. While Bailly could stretch this into a competitive encounter, Baena's quality should shine through in the decisive moments.