Betting tips from AI for Sergey Spivak vs Shamil Gaziev, 22 November 2025.

The market leans toward an early firefight, with Shamil Gaziev a slight favorite at 1.66 and Sergey Spivak priced at 2.23. That line reflects the prevailing narrative: if Gaziev keeps this upright, his explosive hands and forward pressure can find Spivak’s chin. Bo from Brutal Commentary echoed that angle, pointing to Gaziev’s knockout power and improved clinch skills. He is fresh off a first-round TKO in February, and a lively crowd in Doha should amplify his surges.

But the stylistic layers make this closer than the price suggests. Spivak is a specialist at turning heavyweights into long, grinding minutes: double-legs into fence rides, inside trips from the body lock, and patient mat returns that drain the spring from opponents’ hips. When he gets on top, he is efficient rather than frantic, using shoulder pressure and wrist rides to open lanes for measured ground-and-pound. That rhythm is exactly the kind that blunts a puncher’s explosiveness over time.

Gaziev’s recent work on takedown defense and clinch framing is real, yet the stiffest test is not defending the first shot but surviving the chain: re-shots, leg rides, and resets on the cage while carrying Spivak’s weight. Historically, Gaziev’s danger is front-loaded; as exchanges elongate, his output and mechanics can fade. If Spivak can avoid clean counters early and force repeated grappling sequences, the dynamics flip in the second and third rounds, where top time and attrition stack up. Spivak’s resume includes wins over powerful strikers when he established his A game; the losses came against elite takedown stuffers and rangy technicians, a tier Gaziev has not consistently proven over extended minutes.

From a betting perspective, the numbers argue for the dog. 1.66 implies roughly a 60 percent break-even for Gaziev, while 2.23 sits near 45 percent for Spivak. My read is closer to a 52–48 type fight with early KO upside for Gaziev but superior minute-winning equity for Spivak if he survives the first seven minutes. That divergence creates value on the underdog. A $1 stake at 2.23 returns a strong multiple if Spivak executes the wrestling-centric path.

Doha’s atmosphere may swell for Gaziev, but a grappling-heavy approach is the classic crowd-quieting script. With no injury flags on either side, this comes down to discipline and sequencing. The pick is to back the better grinder at a plus number: Spivak moneyline at 2.23, banking on durability, chain wrestling, and top control to outlast an early storm and take over late.

This heavyweight bout presents a fascinating and classic clash of styles between the relentless grappler, Sergey "Polar Bear" Spivak, and the explosive striker, Shamil Gaziev. The path to victory for each fighter is crystal clear: Spivak must close the distance, secure takedowns, and utilize his suffocating top control, while Gaziev needs to maintain range, defend the takedown attempts, and unleash his formidable knockout power.

Shamil Gaziev enters this contest as the favorite with odds of 1.66, and for good reason. His momentum is undeniable, highlighted by a powerful first-round TKO victory in his most recent outing. This not only showcases his finishing ability but also his confidence. Analysts have pointed to Gaziev's aggressive striking and improved takedown defense as the key factors that could neutralize Spivak's primary weapon. If Gaziev can keep this fight on the feet, his advantage is significant. Every moment the fight remains standing is a moment of peril for Spivak, as Gaziev possesses the kind of power that can end a fight with a single, well-placed strike.

On the other side, Sergey Spivak is a live underdog at 2.23, primarily due to his elite grappling credentials. When Spivak gets his opponents to the canvas, he is one of the most effective heavyweights in the world, grinding them down with ground-and-pound and submission threats. However, his recent form is a major point of concern. With a record of one win and two losses in his last three fights, there are questions about his consistency and his ability to implement his game plan against opponents who can effectively counter it. His losses have often come against fighters who could stuff his takedowns and punish him on the feet, which is exactly the threat Gaziev poses.

Ultimately, this fight will be decided by the first few scrambles and takedown attempts. While Spivak's grappling presents a clear path to victory, Gaziev's recent form, knockout power, and reportedly improved defensive wrestling tilt the scales in his favor. Spivak has shown vulnerability on the feet, and his recent inconsistency makes it difficult to trust him against a dangerous and confident opponent like Gaziev. The betting line reflects this reality, and we believe Gaziev will successfully navigate the early grappling threats to keep the fight in his domain, eventually finding an opening to land a decisive blow and secure the victory.

This heavyweight clash presents a fascinating stylistic matchup between two fighters trending in opposite directions. Shamil Gaziev enters as the slight favorite at 1.66, and the odds accurately reflect his current momentum and finishing ability.

Gaziev's recent first-round TKO victory over Thomas Petersen in February 2025 demonstrates his evolving striking game and killer instinct. His aggressive approach and legitimate knockout power make him dangerous in the early rounds, particularly if he can keep this fight standing. The Dagestani fighter has shown significant improvements in his takedown defense and clinch work, which directly addresses what was previously his biggest weakness against grapplers like Spivak.

Spivak's path to victory runs through his grappling advantage, but his recent form raises concerns. Going 1-2 in his last three fights suggests inconsistency at the highest level. While his top control and ground-and-pound remain elite weapons, he's struggled against opponents who can stuff his takedowns and force striking exchanges. His 2.23 underdog status might seem generous given his grappling pedigree, but it reflects legitimate questions about his ability to implement his game plan.

The key factor here is Gaziev's improved takedown defense. If he can force Spivak into prolonged striking exchanges, his power advantage becomes decisive. Spivak's chin has shown vulnerability in recent outings, and Gaziev possesses the finishing ability to capitalize on any openings.

The venue in Doha could provide additional energy that favors the more aggressive fighter. Gaziev's momentum, combined with his stylistic improvements and Spivak's recent struggles, creates a compelling case for the favorite. While Spivak remains dangerous if he can secure takedowns, Gaziev's evolution as a complete fighter and current form make him the more reliable bet in this heavyweight showdown.

In the world of MMA, heavyweight clashes like Sergey Spivak versus Shamil Gaziev are always a thrill, packed with potential for explosive finishes or grueling wars of attrition. Set for November 22, 2025, in Doha, Qatar, this bout pits Spivak's grappling prowess against Gaziev's knockout power, and with the odds leaning towards Gaziev at 1.66, while Spivak sits as the underdog at 2.23, it's a matchup that has bettors buzzing.

Let's dive into the fighters' styles first. Sergey Spivak is a ground game specialist, thriving when he can drag opponents down and control them with top pressure and ground-and-pound. His ability to wear down foes over rounds has led to some impressive submission wins in the past. However, his recent form raises red flags – a win sandwiched between two losses in his last three fights suggests he's been inconsistent, possibly struggling against elite strikers who keep things standing.

On the flip side, Shamil Gaziev brings that raw, aggressive striking that can end nights early. His first-round TKO over Thomas Petersen in February 2025 highlighted his finishing ability, with powerful hands and a willingness to trade in the pocket. MMA analyst Bo from Brutal Commentary nails it by pointing out Gaziev's improved takedown defense and clinch work, which could neutralize Spivak's grappling attempts. If Gaziev stuffs those takedowns and keeps the fight on the feet, his knockout power becomes a massive threat.

Betting-wise, the slight favoritism towards Gaziev at 1.66 reflects expert sentiment and public money flowing his way, likely due to his striking edge and recent momentum. Spivak at 2.23 offers value for those believing in an upset via ground control, but the analyst prediction of a Gaziev KO win feels spot-on given Spivak's vulnerabilities. The Doha crowd might amp up the energy, potentially favoring the more explosive fighter like Gaziev.

No injuries or scandals cloud this one, keeping the focus pure. For profitable betting, I'd put my $1 on Gaziev – the odds suggest a solid return if he delivers the expected finish. It's not a massive payout, but consistency in picking favorites with strong reasoning builds bankrolls over time. If you're eyeing the underdog, watch for Spivak's early takedown success, but I see Gaziev's power prevailing in a stand-up battle.

This heavyweight MMA bout between Sergey Spivak and Shamil Gaziev is shaping up to be a classic striker versus grappler matchup, with significant implications for bettors. Spivak's primary path to victory hinges on his elite grappling skills; he excels at closing distance, securing takedowns, and imposing relentless top control and ground-and-pound. However, his recent form has been inconsistent, with two losses in his last three fights, suggesting he may struggle against opponents who can neutralize his wrestling.

Gaziev enters this fight with momentum, coming off a first-round TKO victory over Thomas Petersen in February 2025. Analysts like Bo from Brutal Commentary highlight Gaziev's aggressive striking, knockout power, and improved takedown defense as key factors. If Gaziev can keep the fight standing, his ability to land fight-ending shots makes him a dangerous favorite. The clinch work and defensive improvements noted in recent camps could effectively counter Spivak's grappling advances.

The betting odds at 1.66 for Gaziev and 2.23 for Spivak accurately reflect the public and expert sentiment. Gaziev's implied probability of around 60% seems justified given his current form and stylistic advantages. Spivak's underdog status offers potential value for risk-takers, but his vulnerabilities against powerful strikers who defend takedowns reduce the appeal.

Considering the fight location in Doha, Qatar, the energetic atmosphere may favor the more aggressive fighter, potentially amplifying Gaziev's performance. With no reported injuries or off-cage distractions, this contest is likely to play out as anticipated. For bettors seeking profitability, Gaziev at 1.66 represents a calculated choice, as his strengths align well to exploit Spivak's weaknesses and secure a win, possibly by knockout.

This matchup between Sergey Spivak and Shamil Gaziev presents an intriguing clash of styles that could swing the fight in either direction. Spivak is known for his grappling-heavy approach, excelling in top control and ground-and-pound tactics. His best path to victory lies in taking the fight to the mat early and often, where he can neutralize Gaziev’s striking threat. However, Gaziev has reportedly improved his takedown defense and clinch work, which could frustrate Spivak’s attempts to impose his will on the ground. Analyst Bo from Brutal Commentary specifically pointed out Gaziev’s enhanced ability to stay upright and counter effectively, making it harder for Spivak to execute his preferred strategy.
Gaziev, on the other hand, brings a dangerous striking arsenal into this bout. His recent first-round TKO win over Thomas Petersen highlights his finishing power and confidence when standing. This aggressive style has earned him a slight edge in the betting markets, with odds of 1.66 reflecting both public sentiment and expert analysis favoring a potential knockout. The fact that Gaziev fights with high energy and seeks early finishes could play a key role here, especially against a fighter like Spivak who has shown inconsistency lately. With two losses in his last three fights, Spivak appears vulnerable to opponents who can dictate pace or exploit defensive gaps.