Betting tips from AI for Shintaro Mochizuki vs Stefanos Tsitsipas, 20 January 2026.

Tsitsipas arrives as the clear favorite after a commanding 6-3, 6-4 United Cup win over Mochizuki and a Dimers model that pins him at about an 82% shot and 74% to take the first set. He’s seeded, sharp enough (3-1 this year) and plans to grind with heavy backhand spin; Mochizuki’s 0-3 hardcourt start and aggressive-return plan make this a risky underdog bid.

Still, the book gives Mochizuki huge payout value — 5.98 — and with Mochizuki implied at roughly an 18% chance by the same model, that converts into a small positive expected value (about +$0.08 per $1). Betting the favorite at 1.16 is negative EV. For a $1, profitable long-shot value play: back Mochizuki.

Stefanos Tsitsipas enters this Australian Open clash against Shintaro Mochizuki as the overwhelming favorite, and for good reason. The Greek star, priced at 1.16, holds a dominant 1-0 head-to-head advantage, having dispatched Mochizuki comfortably 6-3, 6-4 just weeks ago at the United Cup. That recent form is echoed in their season starts; Tsitsipas boasts a solid 3-1 record this year, despite a tight Adelaide exit, while Mochizuki is struggling with an 0-3 hardcourt record.

Dimers' model gives Tsitsipas an imposing 82% probability of victory, highlighting the significant gap between the two players. While Mochizuki aims for aggressive returns, Tsitsipas's plan to grind out long rallies with his superior stamina and backhand spin appears to be a winning strategy. With a fresh mindset and ambitions for a deep run in Melbourne, Tsitsipas is poised to secure a straightforward win against the 5.98 underdog.

Tsitsipas enters this Australian Open first-round clash with overwhelming advantages across the board. Their recent United Cup meeting showed the Greek's dominance in a straight-sets victory, and nothing suggests Mochizuki has found answers in the short time since. The Japanese player's 0-3 hardcourt start to the season contrasts sharply with Tsitsipas's respectable 3-1 record.

While Mochizuki's reported strategy of aggressive returns might steal a few games, Tsitsipas's superior stamina and tactical backhand spin should neutralize this approach. At 1.16, Tsitsipas is heavily favored by bookmakers, aligning with Dimers' model giving him an 82% win probability.

Tsitsipas's fresh mindset after a challenging 2025 suggests he's mentally prepared for a deep run, starting with dispatching Mochizuki. The 33rd seed should comfortably advance, potentially in straight sets, with his experience and all-court game proving too much for the struggling Mochizuki to handle.

In this Australian Open men's first-round clash, Stefanos Tsitsipas faces a familiar foe in Shintaro Mochizuki on the hardcourts of Melbourne. Tsitsipas already holds the upper hand, having dismantled Mochizuki 6-3, 6-4 in their United Cup encounter earlier this month—a match that showcased the Greek's superior baseline game and mental edge.

Mochizuki enters with a dismal 0-3 record on hardcourts this year, struggling to find rhythm against top-tier opponents. Meanwhile, Tsitsipas, seeded No. 33, boasts a 3-1 start to 2026, including a gritty showing in Adelaide. Dimers' projections align with this narrative, giving Tsitsipas an 82% win probability and a 74% chance to take the first set, factoring in his backhand spin and stamina to outlast aggressive returns.

The odds reflect the mismatch: Mochizuki at 5.98 tempts the bold, but Tsitsipas at 1.16 screams value for steady bettors. With Tsitsipas refreshed after a tough 2025 and eyeing a deep run, expect him to grind out another victory in straight sets. This rematch favors the veteran—lock in Tsitsipas for a profitable edge.

Stefanos Tsitsipas holds a decisive advantage heading into this first-round clash, having dominated Shintaro Mochizuki 6-3, 6-4 in their recent United Cup meeting. His 1.16 odds underscore his favoritism, supported by a 3-1 record this year and a No. 33 seeding, while Mochizuki's winless hardcourt start makes him a long shot at 5.98.

Statistical models give Tsitsipas an 82% chance to win, with tactics favoring his backhand spin and stamina in extended rallies over Mochizuki's aggressive returns. Fresh off a mindset reset, Tsitsipas aims for a deep run, and his superior form and experience should secure a straightforward victory.

Stefanos Tsitsipas enters this match as a heavy favorite, with the bookmakers setting his odds at 1.16. The recent head-to-head meeting between Tsitsipas and Mochizuki in the United Cup saw Tsitsipas dominate 6-3, 6-4, highlighting the significant gap in their current form and skill. Tsitsipas, seeded No. 33, has a solid 3-1 record to start the year, while Mochizuki's 0-3 record on hardcourts suggests he is struggling to find his rhythm. Despite Mochizuki's plans to push aggressive returns, Tsitsipas's superior stamina and backhand spin are likely to wear him down in long rallies. With Dimers' model giving Tsitsipas an 82% chance of victory and a 74% chance to win the first set, it's clear that the Greek player is the safer bet. Tsitsipas's fresh mindset and determination for a deep run in the tournament add to his favoritism, making him the logical choice for this match.