Betting tips from AI for Swansea City vs Derby County, 25 November 2025.

This matchup sets up as a classic market overreaction to home advantage. Swansea are 20th and trending down, with three straight defeats and only one win in five. At home across their last 10, they’re 3-4-3, scoring 1.30 and conceding 1.90 per game, and they’ve allowed goals in 13 of their last 14 overall. Derby, by contrast, come in hot: five wins in six, back-to-back away victories, and a strong 5-3-2 away run with 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded per match. That blend of form and defensive stability on the road is exactly what travels in the Championship.

The moneyline offers Swansea at 2.31, Derby at 3.33, and the Draw at 3.17. Implied probabilities put Derby near 30% on the away win, but the data points toward a higher number. Using recent scoring and conceding rates, a simple Poisson-led view centers expected goals roughly around Swansea 1.2–1.3 and Derby 1.4–1.6, which tips the match slightly toward Derby. Layer in current trajectories—Swansea’s defensive leakage vs. Derby’s compactness and counter threat—and an away win probability in the 32–34% range is reasonable.

If Derby’s true win chance is 32–34%, the fair price lands around 3.12 to 2.94, meaning the available 3.33 is value. In EV terms, even a conservative 32% win rate yields positive expectation on the Derby moneyline. The biggest risk to this angle is the draw: multiple models converge on a 1-1 scoreline, and both teams to score has been prolific for Swansea’s home slate and frequent in this head-to-head. Still, the market has already shaded toward Swansea’s home edge; Derby’s sharper form and better defensive trend line suggest the away side converts enough of those low-margin road games into wins to justify the overlay.

Contextual factors also favor Derby’s path: Swansea’s habit of conceding early forces them to open up, which in turn suits Derby’s transition game. Even if Swansea see more of the ball, Derby’s recent away profile—efficient chance creation and disciplined mid-block—points to fewer cheap goals conceded and a realistic shot at nicking it 1-0 or 2-1.

Recommendation: risk $1 on Derby County to win at 3.33. With our fair range tighter (around 3.00 to 3.15) and a realistic 5–8% expected ROI, it’s the best value side on the board. The draw is live, but at these numbers the away moneyline remains the most profitable long-term position.

This EFL Championship fixture presents a classic clash of form, with the odds seemingly misaligned with recent results, creating a prime betting opportunity. Swansea City, the hosts, are priced as favorites at 2.31, a valuation that appears to lean heavily on home advantage rather than their distressing current performance. The Swans are languishing in 20th place, having lost their last three consecutive matches and secured just a single victory in their last five attempts. Their defensive record is particularly concerning; they've conceded in 13 of their last 14 games and ship an average of 1.90 goals per game at the Swansea.com Stadium. However, they do manage to find the net themselves, scoring in nine of their last ten home fixtures.

On the other side, Derby County travel to Wales in scintillating form. The Rams are sitting comfortably in 12th place and have won five of their last six matches, including their last two on the road. Their away statistics are impressive, with five wins and three draws in their last ten outings, all while maintaining a respectable defensive record by conceding just 1.20 goals per game. Given this momentum, the odds of 3.33 for a Derby victory look incredibly generous and represent significant value against a struggling opponent.

Despite the chasm in form, a straight win for Derby isn't a foregone conclusion. The head-to-head record between these sides is perfectly balanced, with four wins apiece and three draws in their last eleven meetings. Furthermore, expert analysis points heavily towards a 1-1 scoreline. Both teams have shown a strong tendency to score and concede, with 'Both Teams to Score' landing in 80% of Swansea's recent home games and 75% of Derby's recent away matches.

Considering Swansea's ability to score at home despite their poor results and Derby's relentless form, a draw emerges as the most logical and profitable prediction. The Swans have drawn four of their last ten at home, proving they can be stubborn. A stalemate allows us to respect Derby's momentum while acknowledging Swansea's ability to find a goal and the historical tightness of this fixture. At odds of 3.17, the draw offers a fantastic balance of probability and value.

This Championship clash presents a fascinating contrast between two teams heading in opposite directions. Derby County arrive at the Liberty Stadium riding a wave of momentum with five wins from their last six matches, including consecutive away victories that have propelled them to a comfortable 12th position. Their recent form away from home has been particularly impressive, winning half of their last ten road trips while maintaining defensive solidity by conceding just 1.20 goals per game.

Swansea City, meanwhile, find themselves in a concerning spiral. Sitting 20th in the table, the Swans have managed just one victory in their last five outings and have lost three consecutive matches. Most alarming is their defensive fragility - they've conceded goals in 13 of their last 14 games across all competitions. At home, this vulnerability has been equally evident, with the Welsh side averaging 1.90 goals conceded per match in their last ten Liberty Stadium encounters.

The head-to-head record shows perfect balance with four wins apiece and three draws from eleven meetings, but current form heavily favors the Rams. Derby's tactical discipline under their management has transformed them from relegation candidates into a well-organized unit capable of grinding out results on the road.

While the bookmakers offer Swansea at 2.31 reflecting home advantage, Derby's superior form, defensive stability, and recent away success make them attractive at 3.33. The Rams have demonstrated they can score goals when needed (1.60 per away game) while maintaining the defensive structure that has been Swansea's achilles heel.

Derby's ability to win ugly away from home, combined with Swansea's current defensive frailties and poor run of results, suggests the visitors can secure another crucial three points in their push up the Championship table. The value lies firmly with the away side.

Swansea City versus Derby County in the EFL Championship promises to be an intriguing matchup, especially with the contrasting forms of both teams. Swansea, sitting precariously in 20th place, have been on a downward spiral, losing their last three games and securing just one win in their previous five outings. Their home form hasn't been much better, with only three wins, three defeats, and four draws in the last ten at the Liberty Stadium, where they've averaged 1.30 goals scored but a leaky 1.90 conceded per game. The Swans have been particularly vulnerable defensively, conceding in 13 of their last 14 matches overall, which spells trouble against a Derby side that's firing on all cylinders.

Derby County, in contrast, are enjoying a purple patch, occupying 12th spot and boasting five wins from their last six games. Their away form is impressive too, with five victories, three draws, and just two losses in the last ten road trips, averaging 1.60 goals scored and a solid 1.20 conceded. Coming off back-to-back Championship away wins, the Rams look poised to exploit Swansea's frailties. This momentum makes them a tempting underdog at odds of 3.33, but let's dive deeper into why a draw might be the smartest play here.

Looking at the head-to-head record, it's evenly balanced with four wins each and three draws in 11 meetings. Their most recent clash in April 2025 saw Swansea edge a 1-0 victory, but both teams have scored in seven of those encounters, including four at Swansea's home. Analysts are heavily tipping both teams to score (BTTS), given Swansea's involvement in BTTS in 80% of their recent home games and Derby's 75% on the road. The predicted scoreline from multiple sources is a 1-1 stalemate, which aligns with the patterns: Swansea often score at home but can't keep clean sheets, while Derby's defense has been stingy, conceding just one goal on average in their last ten.

From a betting perspective, the odds reflect Swansea as slight favorites at 2.31, implying about a 48% win probability, but some tipsters give Derby a 55-60% edge on the Asian Handicap at +0.25, suggesting value in backing the visitors not to lose. However, the draw at 3.17 stands out as potentially profitable. Why? Swansea's home games frequently end in stalemates (four draws in ten), and Derby's solid away record includes three draws in ten. With Swansea desperate to halt their slide but facing a confident Derby, neither side might dominate enough for a win. The Championship is known for tight, cagey affairs, especially mid-table scraps like this.

In terms of key insights for bettors, watch for Swansea's defensive lapses— they've conceded in nearly every recent game—paired with Derby's clinical counter-attacks. If Derby can maintain their recent scoring form without overcommitting, a share of the spoils seems likely. For those eyeing profitability, betting $1 on the draw could yield a nice return, especially if the game follows the BTTS trend without a decisive goal. This isn't a high-scoring thriller, but it's a classic Championship battle where form meets resilience, making the draw my predicted outcome for a balanced, value-driven bet.

Swansea City enter this fixture in concerning form, having lost three consecutive matches and winning just once in their last five outings. Their defensive frailties are particularly alarming, having conceded in 13 of their last 14 games overall. At home, they've been consistently vulnerable at the back, shipping 1.90 goals per game while managing just 1.30 scored. This pattern of scoring but failing to secure results makes them unreliable as favorites, despite the bookmakers' implied probability of 48% for a home win reflected in their 2.31 moneyline odds.

Derby County present a compelling counter-argument with momentum firmly on their side. Riding a wave of five victories in their last six matches, including back-to-back away wins, they've demonstrated the consistency Swansea desperately lacks. Their away form shows a balanced team capable of both scoring (1.60 goals per game) and defending effectively (1.20 conceded). The Rams' recent resilience makes their 3.33 odds appear generous for an in-form side facing struggling opposition.

The head-to-head history adds another layer of complexity, with both teams winning four of their eleven previous encounters and three matches ending level. While Swansea won the most recent meeting 1-0 in April 2025, Derby's current form suggests they've significantly improved since that defeat. The statistical probability of both teams scoring (occurring in seven of eleven historical matches) indicates this could be an open contest rather than a controlled performance by either side.

Considering the value proposition, Derby County's 3.33 odds offer substantial upside compared to the risk. Swansea's defensive issues against an in-form Derby attack create a mismatch that the odds don't fully account for. While the draw at 3.17 presents reasonable value given both teams' tendencies, Derby's consistent winning mentality and superior recent results make them the smarter investment for profit-seeking bettors.

This EFL Championship clash between Swansea City and Derby County presents a fascinating betting opportunity, particularly given the contrasting form of both teams heading into the fixture. Swansea's struggles are evident in their recent performances, having lost three consecutive matches and winning just once in their last five outings. Their home form has been inconsistent as well, with only three wins from their last ten at Liberty Stadium. More concerning is their defensive frailty, conceding in 13 of their last 14 games overall. These factors make backing them at 2.31 less appealing despite their historical edge in head-to-head encounters.
Derby County, on the other hand, arrive at this match in excellent form. They've won five of their last six matches, including back-to-back away victories in the Championship. Their road form stands out as they've secured five wins, three draws, and two losses in their last ten away fixtures, averaging an impressive 1.60 goals scored per game while maintaining a solid defense that concedes only 1.20 goals per match. The Rams' consistency on the road makes them a strong contender in this matchup, especially considering the bookmakers have priced them at 3.33, which represents significant value given their current momentum."The head-to-head record between these sides shows balance, with four wins apiece and three draws across their previous 11 meetings. However, recent trends suggest we might be in for another tight affair. Analysts heavily favor Both Teams To Score (BTTS), pointing to Swansea's tendency to both score and concede in nine of their last ten home games. Meanwhile, Derby have shown defensive solidity but aren't impenetrable, making BTTS a likely outcome here. Despite this, the predicted scoreline of 1-1 seems slightly conservative when assessing Derby's attacking threat combined with Swansea's porous defense."While Swansea holds a slight edge according to betting odds at 2.31, I believe Derby's superior form and better away record make them the more reliable choice. Tipsters suggesting Derby's probability of success at 55-60% on the Asian Handicap (+0.25) reinforce this perspective. Additionally, Derby’s ability to grind out results even in challenging conditions aligns well with their recent confidence boost from consistent victories."In conclusion, although Swansea may benefit from home advantage, their poor run of form and defensive vulnerabilities outweigh any potential benefits. Derby County's upward trajectory, coupled with their solid away record and balanced attack-defense metrics, positions them as the most likely winner. At 3.33, backing Derby provides substantial value for bettors looking to maximize returns.