Betting tips from AI for Tagir Ulanbekov vs Kyoji Horiguchi, 22 November 2025.

This is a classic styles clash with real narrative juice: Tagir Ulanbekov brings the smothering Dagestani grappling blueprint and recent UFC momentum, while Kyoji Horiguchi returns to the Octagon with a veteran’s toolbox, elite footwork, and a proven big-fight temperament. Daniel Cormier’s read aligns with the tape — Horiguchi’s savvy can make this tricky, but Ulanbekov’s size and clinch-wrestling are a demanding ask over three rounds. Ariel Helwani frames it well as youth vs. experience; the question is whose A-game is more bankable under current judging priorities.

The market says Ulanbekov is the deserved favorite at 1.49, with Horiguchi a live underdog at 2.77 and the draw an extreme outlier at 43.00. Notably, Tagir’s price has been shortening as money flows his way, which often inflates the underdog’s value. Implied probabilities now suggest Horiguchi only needs to win a bit more than a third of the time to make his price profitable; that threshold feels conservative given his skill set and recent form.

Technically, Ulanbekov’s path is clear: pressure entries, chain takedowns, clinch rides, and mat returns to accumulate control time. But Horiguchi’s game is built to punish linear pressure — lateral movement, darting entries, counter right hands, and calf kicks that can deaden lead legs and blunt level changes. His anti-wrestling is crafty, not brute-force: quick hips, inside frames, and immediate exits that force resets rather than prolonged grappling exchanges.

Crucially, modern scoring tendencies emphasize damage over control. If Tagir can’t convert rides into meaningful ground strikes or threatening advances, Horiguchi’s clean, visible moments — sharp counters, leg damage, and momentum-shifting flurries — can sway rounds. That dynamic elevates the variance and narrows the gap between a dominant wrestler and an elite striker with elite defense.

Form matters. After a two-fight skid in 2021, Horiguchi has stabilized with an unbeaten stretch (five wins, one no contest), including a recent title defense in Rizin, reminding everyone his timing and speed remain world-class. Ulanbekov’s controversial decision over Azat Maksum showed he’s not untouchable; quality movement and scrambling can make his rides look less dominant than the takedown count suggests.

Intangibles tilt slightly toward Tagir — size, likely crowd support in Qatar, and the comfort of recent UFC cadence — but Horiguchi’s composure and championship pedigree mitigate the stage pressure of his first UFC fight since 2016. He’s fought and beaten top competition across organizations and understands how to win moments that matter.

From a betting perspective, the underdog price is the edge. At 2.77, Horiguchi’s break-even is roughly the mid-30s in percent; I project him closer to the low-40s given his defensive layers, countering threat, and damage-first judging climate. Staking $1 on Horiguchi moneyline yields an attractive upside if he keeps it standing enough, chips the leg, and lands the cleaner work.

Recommendation: Bet $1 on Kyoji Horiguchi to win at 2.77. The matchup is tight, but the number makes the dog the smarter play.

This flyweight showdown presents a quintessential clash of styles: the relentless grappling of Tagir Ulanbekov against the legendary striking of Kyoji Horiguchi. While the betting markets have firmly installed Ulanbekov as the favorite at 1.49, a deeper analysis reveals a compelling case for the underdog, making this a prime opportunity for a value bet.

Ulanbekov's favoritism is built on a solid foundation. He brings a four-fight UFC win streak into the octagon, leveraging a suffocating, Dagestani-style wrestling game that has overwhelmed most of his opponents. His size and strength advantages at 125 pounds are significant, and he will undoubtedly look to close the distance, secure takedowns, and control Horiguchi on the mat. Furthermore, the fight's location in Qatar, with its large Russian expat community, will likely provide a favorable atmosphere for Ulanbekov. The market's confidence is clear, with his odds shortening as the fight draws nearer.

However, writing off Kyoji Horiguchi would be a grave mistake. We are talking about a former champion and one of the most accomplished flyweights in MMA history. His return to the UFC after an extended and successful stint in Rizin is a major storyline for a reason. Horiguchi is unbeaten in his last six contests and appears to be in the midst of a career resurgence. His striking is not just good; it's world-class. His unique karate stance, explosive movement, and knockout power are tools that can neutralize a grappler's pressure. As Daniel Cormier noted, Horiguchi's veteran savvy is a massive X-factor.

The key to this fight lies in Horiguchi's ability to manage distance and defend the takedown. If he can keep the fight standing for significant portions of each round, he holds a distinct advantage. Ulanbekov's last victory, a controversial split decision, showed that his control-heavy style doesn't always translate to decisive, damage-filled rounds in the eyes of the judges. If Horiguchi can stuff takedowns and force Ulanbekov into a striking battle, the odds shift dramatically in his favor. At 2.77, the price on a fighter of Horiguchi's caliber and experience, who possesses a clear path to victory, is simply too good to ignore. This is a calculated risk on a living legend whose skills are being undervalued against a formidable but potentially one-dimensional opponent.

This flyweight showdown presents a fascinating clash between youth and experience, with both fighters carrying compelling narratives into their Qatar encounter. Ulanbekov enters as the heavy favorite at 1.49, and for good reason - his four-fight UFC win streak showcases the relentless wrestling and grappling dominance that has made him a legitimate contender in the division.

However, the recent controversy surrounding his decision victory over Azat Maksum raises questions about his current form. When judges' scorecards spark widespread debate, it often signals that a fighter may not be performing at their absolute peak. This creates an intriguing dynamic against a veteran like Horiguchi, who has shown remarkable resilience with six unbeaten fights following his 2021 struggles.

Horiguchi's 2.77 odds reflect skepticism about his UFC return after nearly a decade away, but his recent Rizin success and championship pedigree cannot be dismissed. His world-class striking has always been his calling card, and at 34, he possesses the technical refinement that comes with years of elite competition. The Japanese veteran's ability to maintain distance and pick apart opponents with precise combinations could prove problematic for Ulanbekov's typically aggressive approach.

The stylistic matchup favors the Russian's wrestling credentials, but Horiguchi's takedown defense and scrambling ability have historically been underrated. His experience in high-pressure situations, combined with the motivation of proving himself on the sport's biggest stage after years away, creates a compelling underdog narrative.

While Ulanbekov's physical advantages and home-crowd support in Qatar are notable factors, the value lies with the experienced challenger. Horiguchi's striking precision, veteran savvy, and renewed confidence following his recent run make him an attractive upset pick at these odds.

As we gear up for this flyweight clash in the UFC on November 22, 2025, in Qatar, Tagir Ulanbekov faces off against the returning Kyoji Horiguchi in what promises to be a thrilling matchup of styles. Ulanbekov, the betting favorite at 1.49, brings a dominant grappling game that's propelled him to a four-fight win streak in the UFC. His wrestling prowess is no joke – he's controlled fights on the ground, wearing down opponents with relentless pressure and submissions. Coming off a controversial decision win over Azat Maksum in June 2025, there's some debate about his form, but that hasn't stopped the odds from shortening in his favor as fight night approaches, reflecting strong confidence from bookmakers and bettors alike.

On the flip side, Kyoji Horiguchi at 2.77 is making his UFC comeback after nearly a decade, and the hype is real. With a storied career including titles in Rizin and Bellator, Horiguchi's world-class striking could be the x-factor here. He's on a hot streak, unbeaten in his last six outings (five wins, one no contest), including a recent title defense that shows he's still got that championship pedigree. Analysts like Daniel Cormier and Ariel Helwani are buzzing about the 'youth vs. experience' dynamic, with Horiguchi's veteran savvy potentially troubling the younger Ulanbekov. Japanese media and fans are rallying behind him, adding to the international intrigue.

But let's break it down for betting purposes. Ulanbekov's size advantage in the flyweight division – he's a big 125-pounder – combined with his grappling edge, makes him a nightmare for strikers like Horiguchi. We've seen Horiguchi struggle against wrestlers in the past, and while his takedown defense is solid, Ulanbekov's persistence could grind him out over three rounds. The draw at 43.00 is a long shot, as MMA fights rarely end in ties, especially with these aggressive styles.

That said, Horiguchi isn't without upset potential. His speed and precision on the feet could catch Ulanbekov if the fight stays standing, and his recent resurgence suggests he's peaking at the right time. Still, the expert consensus leans heavily toward Ulanbekov, citing his win streak and control-based approach as decisive. The Qatar crowd, with its Russian expat support, might give Ulanbekov that extra edge in atmosphere.

From a betting perspective, putting $1 on Ulanbekov at 1.49 feels like the smart, profitable play. It requires a bit more stake to win big, but his stylistic matchup advantages make it a high-confidence pick. If you're feeling risky, Horiguchi's underdog odds offer value for those believing in the comeback story. No injuries reported, so both should be at full strength – expect fireworks, but I see Ulanbekov emerging victorious by decision or late submission.

In this compelling flyweight bout, Tagir Ulanbekov and Kyoji Horiguchi present a classic striker versus grappler dynamic that has captivated MMA fans and bettors alike. Ulanbekov enters as the clear favorite with odds at 1.49, backed by a four-fight UFC win streak and a reputation for suffocating wrestling. His ability to control fights on the ground, combined with a significant size advantage, positions him as a formidable force against any opponent. Recent analysis from figures like Daniel Cormier underscores Ulanbekov's grappling edge, which could be the deciding factor in neutralizing Horiguchi's strengths.

Horiguchi, a seasoned veteran and former champion, offers intriguing value as the underdog at 2.77. His legendary experience and world-class striking have fueled a late-career resurgence, marked by an unbeaten streak of six fights, including a Rizin title defense. Ariel Helwani's emphasis on Horiguchi's UFC return adds to the narrative, suggesting his precision and speed could test Ulanbekov's defense. However, Horiguchi's long absence from the UFC octagon since 2016 raises questions about his readiness for top-level competition, especially against a relentless grappler like Ulanbekov.

The matchup hinges on whether Ulanbekov can impose his wrestling game early, smothering Horiguchi's striking and forcing the fight to the mat. Horiguchi's footwork and counter-punching might create fleeting opportunities, but Ulanbekov's consistency and pressure make it difficult for opponents to find rhythm. External factors, such as the Qatar venue with its strong Russian expat support for Ulanbekov, could amplify his confidence and influence judges in a close round.

Betting trends show Ulanbekov's odds shortening, reflecting broad consensus on his victory. While Horiguchi's pedigree and recent form make him a live underdog, the data and expert opinions lean heavily toward Ulanbekov's path to victory. For profitable betting, Ulanbekov at 1.49 represents a calculated play on his proven skills and momentum, minimizing risk in a high-stakes encounter.

This matchup between Tagir Ulanbekov and Kyoji Horiguchi presents an intriguing clash of styles, experience, and momentum. Ulanbekov enters as the clear favorite at odds of 1.49, reflecting his current UFC win streak and dominant grappling pedigree. However, Horiguchi’s resurgence and championship-caliber striking offer a compelling narrative for bettors seeking value on the underdog at 2.77. Let’s break down the factors influencing this bout.
Ulanbekov’s recent performances have been impressive, particularly his ability to control fights with relentless wrestling and positional dominance. His four-fight UFC win streak underscores his consistency, but his most recent victory over Azat Maksum was controversial, raising questions about his adaptability against more experienced opponents. While his grappling edge is undeniable, Horiguchi’s veteran savvy and technical precision could neutralize Ulanbekov’s strengths. Daniel Cormier’s comments about Ulanbekov’s size advantage being offset by Horiguchi’s experience resonate here; if Horiguchi can keep the fight standing, he has a real chance to exploit Ulanbekov’s defensive vulnerabilities.
Horiguchi’s career trajectory adds another layer of intrigue. After a brief downturn in 2021, he has rebounded with six consecutive unbeaten outings, including a standout title defense in Rizin. His recent form suggests he is peaking at the right time, blending his world-class striking with improved defensive grappling. Ariel Helwani’s observation about the “youth vs. experience” dynamic highlights Horiguchi’s potential to outthink and outmaneuver Ulanbekov in key moments. Moreover, the significance of this fight—Horiguchi’s return to the UFC after nearly a decade—cannot be overstated. The pressure of performing on such a stage could either elevate him or expose cracks in his game.
Betting market trends further inform this analysis. Ulanbekov’s shortening odds indicate growing confidence among bettors, yet there is still value on Horiguchi given his championship pedigree and recent momentum. At 2.77, Horiguchi represents a strong underdog play, especially for bettors who believe his striking will dictate the pace. The draw option at 43.00 is less appealing given the fighters’ aggressive tendencies, though it remains a possibility in a closely contested bout."The venue and atmosphere also warrant consideration. Held in Qatar, the fight will likely draw vocal support from the Russian expat community backing Ulanbekov. However, Horiguchi’s international appeal and Japanese media presence could provide a counterbalance, ensuring neither fighter enjoys a decisive home-crowd advantage. Indoors at a modern arena, environmental factors are negligible, allowing both competitors to focus solely on their strategies.