Betting tips from AI for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montréal Canadiens, 28 December 2025.

Tampa Bay's home edge and a wave of public support set the stage at Amalie Arena. The Bolts have a 3-2 stretch and are playing an opponent that will be without Patrik Laine until late February, with Sam Montembeault and Jake Evans listed as questionable — that weakness in Montreal's attack and netminding matters more than Tampa's defensive scraps.

Montreal's 20-12-5 road form is real, but losing Laine and a possibly shaky goalie offsets that. Tampa's lineup has bumps (Hedman, Cernak, Hagel) but the Bolts are still the safer play—back Tampa Bay at 2.00 over Montréal at 3.15. Expect a high-scoring tilt, but Tampa's depth and home ice give them the edge.

The Amalie Arena is set for a high-octane clash as the Tampa Bay Lightning host the Montréal Canadiens, with the Bolts riding a 1.03-2 hot streak in their last five outings. Public bettors are overwhelmingly backing Tampa, with odds listing them as 1.65 moneyline picks in other markets, highlighting their strong home advantage.

However, the official bookmaker odds for Tampa Bay Lightning stand at a surprisingly generous 2.00, which presents intriguing value given the context. While Tampa's defense is in flux with key players like Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak battling injuries, their offense has been firing, leading to overs hitting in four straight and 1.10 of 1.19 home games.

Montreal, despite a solid 1.20-12-5 road record, faces significant challenges. Star forward Patrik Laine is sidelined until late February, and the availability of goalie Sam Montembeault and forward Jake Evans remains questionable. These absences will undoubtedly hamper their offensive output and defensive stability against a potent Lightning attack. Given the Canadiens' injury woes and the Lightning's current offensive form, Tampa Bay is poised to secure the win.

The Tampa Bay Lightning welcome the Montréal Canadiens to Amalie Arena for what promises to be an electrifying NHL clash on December 28, 2025. With the Bolts listed as 2.00 moneyline favorites, public bettors are piling on, sensing a high-scoring affair against a Habs squad that's solid on the road at 20-12-5 but hampered by key absences.

Montreal's offense takes a hit without Patrik Laine, sidelined until late February with an abdominal injury, while goalie Sam Montembeault and forward Jake Evans are questionable—potentially forcing backups into a tough spot against Tampa's firepower. The Lightning aren't unscathed, with Victor Hedman out through February due to an elbow issue, Erik Cernak battling an undisclosed ailment past New Year's, and Brandon Hagel day-to-day with an upper-body tweak. Yet, Tampa's riding a gritty 3-2 streak in their last five, and the over has cashed in four straight games plus 10 of 19 home tilts, hinting at a goal-fest.

Despite defensive flux, the Bolts' home-ice edge and depth should overpower a depleted Canadiens lineup. This feels like a spot to back Tampa to grind out a victory in a barnburner, making them the smart play for bettors chasing value.

Tampa Bay Lightning are favored at home with public bettors heavily backing them, reflected in the 2.00 moneyline odds. While their defense is banged up with Hedman and Cernak sidelined, their offense is hot and they've hit the over in four straight games, suggesting they can outscore Montreal's issues.

Montreal is without key scorer Patrik Laine and has questionable goaltending with Montembeault, undermining their solid road record. The Lightning's scoring momentum at Amalie Arena, where overs are common, should overcome their defensive injuries against a depleted Canadiens squad.

This matchup between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montréal Canadiens presents an intriguing betting opportunity, especially with the Bolts listed at 2.00 on the moneyline. The Canadiens, despite their respectable road record of 20-12-5, face significant hurdles without Patrik Laine, who remains sidelined until late February with an abdominal injury. Losing a sniper like Laine weakens their offensive firepower considerably. Adding to their woes, goalie Sam Montembeault and forward Jake Evans are questionable for this game, creating further uncertainty around Montreal's lineup.

On the other side, the Lightning have been in decent form, going 3-2 in their last five games. While their defensive corps is banged up—with Victor Hedman, Erik Cernak, and Brandon Hagel all nursing injuries—their scoring depth should still shine against a depleted Canadiens roster. Public bettors heavily favor the Lightning, evidenced by their steep -155 odds elsewhere, suggesting confidence in their ability to deliver another high-scoring performance. Given that overs have hit in four straight games for Tampa, expect them to exploit Montreal's vulnerabilities.

The odds reflect value even beyond the moneyline. A draw sits at 4.30, but it’s unlikely given both teams' tendencies toward open hockey. Meanwhile, backing the Canadiens at 3.15 feels risky considering their mounting injury concerns. With home ice advantage and superior overall health compared to Montreal, the Lightning remain the smarter pick.