Betting tips from AI for Tampa Bay Lightning vs St Louis Blues, 23 December 2025.

Computer models and DRatings lean heavily toward Tampa Bay (projected 4-2 and 3.72 goals for the Bolts vs 2.41 for the Blues), and matchup details back it up: a top‑5 Tampa offense meets a rank‑30 St. Louis defense, plus a recent 6-1 rout and a 16-4-0 record when the Lightning hit three+ makes the home side look comfortable.
I’m taking Tampa Bay to win outright and control the game rather than chasing the tempting longshots. Back the home chalk 1.78 over St. Louis 3.80 or the draw 4.40; expect Tampa to dictate tempo and finish chances at Amalie Arena.

The Lightning are poised to strike hard at Amalie Arena against the St. Louis Blues. Computer models are practically shouting a 1.44 win for Tampa Bay, projecting a dominant 4-2 victory with over 5.5 goals. This isn't just a hunch; the Bolts bring a top-5 offense, projected by DRatings to net 3.72 goals against a porous Blues defense ranked 30th, expected to muster only 2.41.

Tampa Bay's recent 6-4 thrashing of Carolina underscores their firepower, especially at home, and they boast an impressive 16-4-0 record when scoring three or more goals. While the Blues did manage to stun Florida 6-2 on the road, their 2-1 loss to the Rangers and a dismal 2-7-3 record when held to two goals highlight their inconsistencies.

History also favors Tampa, who delivered a dominant 6-1 rout against St. Louis last December. Despite a "revenge spot" narrative for the Blues, the overwhelming statistical advantage and home ice make the Lightning at 1.78 the clear choice.

The Tampa Bay Lightning look primed for victory against the struggling St. Louis Blues. Computer models project a convincing 4-2 Lightning win, and Tampa's offensive firepower has been on full display, evidenced by their recent 6-4 dismantling of Carolina. With odds at 1.78, the Lightning offer solid value.

Tampa Bay's impressive 16-4-0 record when scoring three or more goals showcases their offensive potency, while St. Louis has struggled mightily when their offense falters, going just 2-7-3 when held to two goals or fewer. The statistical edge clearly favors the Lightning, whose top-5 offense should exploit the Blues' rank-30 defense.

Historically, Tampa Bay has dominated this matchup, including last December's 6-1 thrashing. While the Blues did surprise Florida with a 6-2 road win, their subsequent 2-1 loss to the Rangers revealed their inconsistency. At Amalie Arena, expect the Lightning's home advantage to be decisive in what should be a high-scoring affair favoring the hosts.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are primed to light up Amalie Arena against the St. Louis Blues in this NHL showdown. With home-ice advantage and a scorching offense, Tampa's firepower has been on full display, including that recent 6-4 demolition of Carolina. Computer models project a 4-2 victory for the Bolts, with over 5.5 goals and covering the -1.5 spread at -225 odds—clear signs of dominance.

The Blues pulled off a stunning 6-2 road upset over Florida, but their defense ranks a leaky 30th, and they've struggled mightily at 2-7-3 when limited to two goals. Head-to-head, Tampa owns the edge, fresh off a 6-1 rout of St. Louis last December, turning this into a prime revenge spot for the visitors—but the Bolts' top-5 attack should overwhelm.

DRatings backs it up with Tampa projected for 3.72 goals to St. Louis's 2.41. At 1.78 to win, the value screams Lightning straight-up, especially against the Blues' +280 underdog price. This one's got high-scoring thriller written all over it—bet on Tampa to skate away victorious.

Computer models project a 4-2 Lightning victory with over 5.5 goals, favoring Tampa Bay's top-5 offense to exploit St. Louis's rank-30 defense.
The Bolts ride high from a 6-4 home thrashing of Carolina and a lethal 16-4-0 record when scoring three-plus goals, while the Blues are inconsistent, scraping 2-7-3 when held to two nets.
Head-to-head history tilts Tampa's way, including a dominant 6-1 rout last December, making the Lightning a strong bet at odds of 1.78 in this revenge spot at Amalie Arena.

Tampa Bay Lightning enters this matchup as the clear favorite, and for good reason. The Bolts have been nearly unstoppable at home, especially when their offense heats up. With a 16-4-0 record when scoring three or more goals, their firepower is undeniable. St Louis Blues, on the other hand, struggle mightily when held to low-scoring outputs, posting a dismal 2-7-3 mark in such scenarios. Recent computer models project a 4-2 win for Tampa Bay, with the Lightning covering the -1.5 spread at 1.44. This aligns with DRatings' projection of 3.72 goals for Tampa compared to just 2.41 for St. Louis.

The head-to-head narrative also favors the Lightning. Their dominant 6-1 rout over the Blues last December underscores their ability to exploit St. Louis' defensive weaknesses, which currently rank 30th in the league. While the Blues showed resilience in a 6-2 road victory against Florida, their inconsistency is concerning. A subsequent 2-1 loss to the Rangers highlights their vulnerability in tight games, something Tampa thrives on despite their own struggles in one-goal contests (6-7-2).

From a betting perspective, the odds tell a compelling story. Tampa's moneyline sits at 1.78, reflecting their status as heavy favorites. The Blues' 3.80 underdog line offers tempting value but feels like a risky proposition given their defensive frailties and Tampa’s home dominance. Even the draw at 4.40 seems unlikely in what projects to be a high-scoring affair exceeding 5.5 goals.

All signs point to the Lightning continuing their supremacy at Amalie Arena. Backing them isn't just about trusting the stats—it's about riding the momentum of a team firing on all cylinders.