Betting tips from AI for Tom Aspinall vs Alexander Volkov, 31 December 2025.

Tom Aspinall looks like a different class here. He submitted Alexander Volkov with a slick straight armbar at 3:45 of round one and followed up with explosive ground-and-pound that left Volkov bleeding — proof he can end veteran outings early. The market prices Aspinall as the clear favorite at 1.28 while Volkov is listed at 3.60.

Tactically Aspinall has the size, scramble speed and finishing instinct to keep this on the mat and close it fast. Volkov's lone submission loss in 12 years shows a real crack when matched with elite grapplers, and Aspinall’s confidence after that O2 Arena dismantling matters.

Betting $1, the smart, profit-focused play is to back Tom Aspinall to win — lower return but far higher probability of preserving bankroll and grinding an edge over time.

Tom Aspinall enters this hypothetical rematch as an overwhelming favorite, and for good reason. Their previous encounter in London saw Aspinall (1.28) utterly demolish Alexander Volkov, securing a slick straight armbar submission at 3:45 of round one. That fight, marking Volkov's first submission loss in nearly 12 years, was a masterclass in controlled aggression.

Aspinall's explosive ground-and-pound shredded Volkov's defenses early, leaving the Russian veteran visibly compromised before the tap. He truly made it look like just another sparring session against a top-ranked opponent. The Manchester powerhouse has cemented his undefeated UFC heavyweight streak and continues to live up to his bold claim that no one outside the top 10 could test him.

Given such a dominant prior performance and the current odds reflecting Aspinall's clear superiority, betting against him at 3.60 for Volkov would be a high-risk gamble. Aspinall's trajectory as England's next heavyweight terror is undeniable, and he's poised to repeat his success.

Looking at the rematch between Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov, the odds heavily favor Aspinall at 1.28 for good reason. Their first meeting was completely one-sided, with Aspinall demolishing Volkov via first-round armbar in just 3:45. That dominant performance in London showcased Aspinall's complete skill set - explosive striking that split Volkov's ear open and elite submission skills that gave Volkov his first tap loss in nearly 12 years.

Volkov at 3.60 might seem tempting as an underdog, but the manner of his previous defeat is concerning. Aspinall didn't just win; he made it look effortless against a veteran ranked #6. The Manchester powerhouse has only improved since then, cementing himself as England's premier heavyweight threat.

While Volkov has experience, Aspinall's combination of power, speed and grappling presents matchup problems the Russian hasn't solved. The betting value clearly lies with Aspinall despite the chalk price.

In the heavyweight clash of the year, Tom Aspinall faces Alexander Volkov once more, but history screams a repeat performance. Back in 2022 at the O2 Arena, Aspinall turned Volkov's night into a nightmare, snatching a slick straight armbar at 3:45 of the first round—Volkov's first submission loss in nearly 12 years. That demolition showcased Aspinall's explosive ground-and-pound, splitting Volkov's ear and leaving the Russian veteran bloodied before the tap. Aspinall's undefeated UFC streak was cemented that night, and he's only grown fiercer since, hyping himself as England's heavyweight terror.

Volkov, a towering technician with knockout power, brings experience, but Aspinall's speed and submission game exploit his weaknesses. The odds reflect this: Aspinall at 1.28 is the clear favorite, while Volkov sits at 3.60. For a $1 bet, Aspinall's line offers steady value—payout around $1.28—building our bankroll smartly without chasing longshots. Expect Aspinall to swarm early, forcing another quick finish and padding profits in this lopsided rematch.

This isn't just revenge for Volkov; it's Aspinall's throne defense. Bet on the Manchester powerhouse to dominate again.

Tom Aspinall's previous demolition of Alexander Volkov in 2022, via a slick first-round armbar, highlights his explosive ground-and-pound and submission prowess. That win, Volkov's first submission loss in nearly 12 years, cemented Aspinall's undefeated UFC heavyweight streak.

With odds at 1.28, Aspinall is a heavy favorite, but his confidence and dominant performance history make him a reliable bet. Volkov's vulnerabilities exposed in their last clash suggest Aspinall can replicate his success, despite the high stakes.

Tom Aspinall enters this heavyweight rematch with a psychological edge over Alexander Volkov, stemming from their 2022 clash in London. That fight ended in devastating fashion for Volkov, as Aspinall secured a slick straight armbar at just 3:45 of the first round—marking Volkov’s first submission loss in nearly 12 years. Aspinall’s ground game was on full display, dismantling Volkov’s defenses and leaving him bloodied before the tap. This performance not only highlighted Aspinall’s grappling prowess but also his ability to impose his will early.

The odds reflect Aspinall’s dominance, with him sitting at 1.28 compared to Volkov’s 3.60. While the juice on Aspinall is steep, his undefeated UFC streak and confidence make him a formidable favorite. He has publicly stated that no one outside the top 10 could test him—a claim he backed up by cruising past the No. 6-ranked Volkov like it was just another sparring session. Given his trajectory and momentum, Aspinall appears poised to continue his rise as England’s next heavyweight terror.

Volkov, while experienced, hasn’t shown the adaptability needed to counter Aspinall’s explosiveness. Unless he drastically alters his approach, this rematch could mirror their first encounter. Betting on Aspinall may not yield massive returns due to the steep odds, but his consistency makes him the safer, more logical choice.