Betting tips from AI for Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane, 31 December 2025.

This rematch carries real bite: the UFC 321 eye-poke controversy left Tom Aspinall furious and sidelined with bilateral traumatic Brown's syndrome that required eye surgery, and Dana White has only promised the fight once Aspinall is cleared.

On paper Aspinall is the favorite at 1.51, but medical red flags and questions about his recovery create value on Ciryl Gane. Gane arrives fresh mentally from the controversial stoppage and can exploit space and distance if Aspinall's vision or timing are even slightly compromised. At 2.64 Gane represents the sharper $1 bet — higher payout for a credible path to victory, while acknowledging the upset risk if Aspinall truly heals.

The heavyweight division is set for an explosive rematch, and the bad blood between Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane is palpable. Aspinall, currently priced at 1.51, is "fuming" over the controversial eye poke at UFC 321, accusing Gane of outright cheating. This isn't just another fight; it's a deeply personal quest for vindication after a severe bilateral traumatic Brown's syndrome injury forced eye surgery and a lengthy recovery.

While Aspinall vows not to return until "100% healthy," the shadow of that injury and the long layoff loom large. Pundits even debated if he "quit too soon" after the initial foul, adding fuel to his already burning desire to prove himself. However, let's not forget Gane's early success, bloodying Aspinall's nose before the foul, showing he's a dangerous opponent at 2.64.

Despite the injury concerns, Aspinall's sheer motivation and the belief that he was robbed will be a powerful force. This isn't just about winning; it's about making a statement. If he truly steps into the octagon fully healed, his anger and skill will be too much for Gane. Expect Aspinall to come out with a vengeance, looking to decisively finish what was controversially halted.

The upcoming Aspinall-Gane rematch carries significant baggage after their controversial UFC 321 encounter ended with that double eye poke. Aspinall's medical issues are concerning - bilateral traumatic Brown's syndrome requiring surgery isn't something to take lightly, and his commitment to only returning at 100% could impact his performance.

Gane showed promising signs early in their first meeting, bloodying Aspinall's nose before the stoppage. However, Aspinall remains the rightful favorite at 1.51 given his explosive power and well-rounded skill set. The champion's fury over the eye poke incident could fuel an even more determined performance.

Despite Gane's technical striking prowess offering decent value at 2.64, Aspinall's superior grappling and knockout power present too significant an advantage. The medical layoff is my only hesitation, but assuming full recovery, Aspinall should find a finish within three rounds.

The heavyweight rematch between Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane is shaping up as a powder keg, fueled by the bitter controversy of their UFC 321 clash. That fight ended in a no-contest after Gane's double eye poke at 4:35 of the first round, leaving Aspinall with bilateral traumatic Brown's syndrome that required surgery and sidelined him until mid-January. Aspinall's fuming accusations of cheating haven't cooled; he's vowing not to step back until he's 100% healthy, which could make him sharper and more dangerous come fight night.

Gane, meanwhile, showed his striking prowess early, bloodying Aspinall's nose before the stoppage, but the poke drama has painted him as the villain in the eyes of many fans and pundits. With Aspinall's grappling edge and knockout power intact post-recovery, he's the clear favorite at 1.51, while Gane sits at 2.64 as the underdog. The chaos of the division, including calls for new gloves to curb eye pokes, underscores how pivotal this bout is for the title picture.

Betting $1 on Aspinall to reclaim his spot feels like the smart play—his motivation and skill set scream redemption, and the odds offer solid value for a likely finish in his favor. Dana White's green light on this rematch keeps the hype alive, but Aspinall's fire should see him dominate.

The highly anticipated rematch between Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane is fueled by intense controversy from their last encounter. Aspinall's anger over the eye poke at UFC 321, which caused bilateral traumatic Brown's syndrome and required surgery, drives his revenge narrative. He vows to fight only when 100% healthy, ensuring optimal readiness for December 2025.
Gane demonstrated early aggression by bloodying Aspinall's nose, but the champion's superior skill and motivation tilt the scales. With odds at 1.51 for Aspinall and 2.64 for Gane, bookmakers reflect confidence in Aspinall's comeback. His full recovery and emotional edge should translate into a controlled, dominant performance to reclaim his stature.

The upcoming heavyweight rematch between Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane is shaping up to be one of the most emotionally charged fights in recent MMA history. Aspinall has publicly accused Gane of intentionally using an eye poke during their first encounter at UFC 321, which not only halted the bout but also left Aspinall requiring surgery for bilateral traumatic Brown's syndrome. While Aspinall claims he won't step into the octagon until fully recovered, questions linger about whether his vision and confidence will be at 100% by fight night.

Gane enters as a slight underdog with odds of 2.64, but his striking precision and composure make him a dangerous opponent. The controversy surrounding the eye poke might serve as additional motivation for Aspinall, who holds a significant edge in betting odds at 1.51. However, Gane's ability to exploit openings—intentional or otherwise—could tilt this fight in his favor once again.

Pundits have criticized Aspinall for potentially quitting too soon after the eye poke incident, raising doubts about his mental fortitude if adversity strikes again. Meanwhile, Gane's adaptability and technical prowess give him a realistic path to victory, especially if Aspinall's recovery isn't as complete as claimed. Given the circumstances, backing Gane offers strong value despite his underdog status.