Betting tips from AI for Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes, 31 December 2025.

I lean to Tom Aspinall to win. He obliterated Curtis Blaydes in Manchester with pinpoint timing and brutal accuracy that turns a single clean shot into a fight-ender, and that recent demolition plus his comfort against Blaydes' style make him the obvious favorite 1.25.

Curtis Blaydes' strange 15-second win years ago when Aspinall's knee buckled is a compelling anecdote, but it's an outlier — Blaydes at 3.90 needs a fluke or major mistake to replicate that result. For a $1 straight bet the lower-risk, higher-probability play is Aspinall: superior timing, finishing ability, and the recent decisive win give him the edge.

The recent demolition of Curtis Blaydes by Tom Aspinall at UFC 304 isn't just a win; it's a statement. Aspinall's boasts about his "pinpoint accuracy" and opponents "twitching before his punches land" ring true after such a dominant performance. He truly believes he's the heavyweight king, and his recent form against Blaydes backs that up. While Blaydes holds a bizarre 15-second TKO victory from years past, that was due to Aspinall's knee buckling, not a display of Blaydes' striking prowess. The Brit has clearly evolved, demonstrating a level of timing and precision that makes him incredibly dangerous. The bookmakers agree, with Aspinall listed as a heavy favorite at 1.25. Blaydes, at 3.90, faces an uphill battle to reverse the outcome of their last encounter, especially with Aspinall's confidence at an all-time high. Aspinall's ability to land lights-out blows makes him the clear pick.

The rematch between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes has a clear favorite, with Aspinall coming in at 1.25 after his dominant performance at UFC 304. Their first meeting ended in a fluke injury just 15 seconds in when Aspinall's knee buckled on a leg kick, giving Blaydes a victory that never felt conclusive.

Aspinall's recent demolition of Blaydes showcased his superior striking accuracy and timing, with the Brit himself claiming any clean shot he lands is devastating. While Blaydes is a talented heavyweight with knockout power at 3.90, the evidence from their most recent encounter suggests Aspinall has his number.

Aspinall's self-proclaimed status as the "true heavyweight king" isn't just talk – his technical precision combined with power makes him extremely dangerous. Blaydes' frustration shown in previous bouts might lead to overaggression, playing right into Aspinall's counter-striking strengths. The betting value clearly lies with Aspinall despite the chalk odds.

In the heavyweight clash everyone's buzzing about, Tom Aspinall faces Curtis Blaydes in a rematch that promises fireworks. Aspinall's recent demolition of Blaydes at UFC 304 in Manchester was a masterclass—pinpoint accuracy and timing that left his rival twitching before the punches even landed. He insists he's the true king of the division, downplaying his power but backing it up with devastating clean shots that spell lights-out for opponents.

Blaydes clings to that bizarre 15-second win years ago in London, where Aspinall's knee buckled on a leg kick, sparking endless 'what if' debates. But that fluke feels like ancient history against Aspinall's evolution into an undisputed beast. Blaydes' fiery side shone through with his post-fight middle fingers on that chaotic card, but frustration won't bridge the gap in skill.

With Aspinall at 1.25 and Blaydes at 3.90, the value's thin on the favorite, but his dominance makes this a no-brainer for profitability. Aspinall's precision overwhelms Blaydes' wrestling—expect a quick finish and a fat payout on the chalk.

Tom Aspinall carries immense momentum from his UFC 304 demolition of Curtis Blaydes, where his pinpoint accuracy and self-proclaimed timing made every strike fight-ending.
While Blaydes' fluke 15-second win years ago lingers in rivalry debates, Aspinall's current dominance and psychological edge are undeniable.
At odds of 1.25, Aspinall is a heavy favorite, but Blaydes at 3.90 presents a risky long-shot given his past frustration and puncher's chance.
For profitability, backing Aspinall's consistency and skill is the smarter wager, despite the lower payout.

The heavyweight clash between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes carries all the hallmarks of a classic grudge match. Aspinall enters this bout with supreme confidence after his dominant performance at UFC 304, where he dismantled Blaydes with precision striking. His self-proclaimed status as the division's best isn't without merit—his timing and adaptability inside the octagon have proven devastating. With odds of 1.25, Aspinall is the clear favorite, reflecting both his recent dominance and his ability to capitalize on openings.

Blaydes, however, cannot be underestimated. His bizarre 15-second victory over Aspinall years ago—a freak injury caused by a leg kick—adds an intriguing subplot. Though that win was controversial, it highlights Blaydes' opportunistic nature. At 3.90, he offers significant value for bettors willing to take the risk. Yet, his tendency to let emotions dictate his approach, as seen in his post-fight antics at the London card, could undermine his chances against a composed Aspinall.

Considering their history and current form, Aspinall’s technical prowess and mental edge give him the upper hand. Blaydes will need everything to go perfectly to pull off the upset, but perfection has rarely been part of his narrative. Betting on Aspinall aligns with both logic and momentum.