Betting tips from AI for Tom Aspinall vs Sergey Pavlovich, 31 December 2025.

Tom Aspinall gets the nod. He delivered a blistering 69‑second knockout of Sergey Pavlovich in their 2023 interim-title clash, answering questions about his knee and proving his speed and finishing combos can end heavyweight fights quickly. Stepping in on 17 days' notice that night also underscored his toughness and readiness, traits that matter in rematches.

Pavlovich is still a knockout machine, but his early collapse forces a tough reassessment; stylistically he struggles with Aspinall's explosive entry and pace. The market makes Aspinall a heavy favorite at 1.28 while Pavlovich sits at 3.60. For a $1 wager the pragmatic, bankroll-preserving play is to back Aspinall to repeat the finish.

This highly anticipated rematch sees Tom Aspinall enter as a decisive favorite at 1.28, and for good reason. Their 2023 interim title clash was a blistering affair, with Aspinall delivering a 69-second knockout that left Sergey Pavlovich reeling. What's even more impressive is that Aspinall took that fight on just 17 days' notice, shrugging off a serious knee injury that had previously tested his resolve.

While Pavlovich is undoubtedly a formidable knockout artist, his vulnerability to Aspinall's speed and precision was starkly exposed. The news suggests Pavlovich needs a serious reassessment after crumbling so quickly. Aspinall's confidence will be sky-high, knowing he's already dominated his opponent under less-than-ideal circumstances. The narrative pushed by Ciryl Gane, that Aspinall is now the hunted champion, only fuels Aspinall's drive to prove his reign is legitimate and enduring. Betting on Aspinall to repeat his performance, perhaps not as quickly but with similar dominance, seems the most logical and profitable path.

The rematch between Tom Aspinall and Sergey Pavlovich appears to be a foregone conclusion based on their previous encounter. Aspinall's devastating 69-second knockout of Pavlovich in 2023 demonstrated a clear speed and technical advantage that the Russian had no answer for.

What makes Aspinall's victory even more impressive was the context - stepping in on just 17 days' notice and coming back from a serious knee injury that threatened his career. At odds of 1.28, the bookmakers clearly respect Aspinall's dominance in their first meeting.

Pavlovich at 3.60 offers value only if you believe he can make dramatic adjustments, but the manner of his defeat (described as "sprawled and half-conscious") suggests a fundamental matchup problem rather than a fluke outcome.

Aspinall's combination of speed and power is simply too much for the slower Pavlovich, and I expect a similar, if slightly longer, outcome in the rematch.

In the heavyweight MMA showdown of the year, Tom Aspinall faces Sergey Pavlovich in a rematch that promises fireworks. Aspinall, the reigning champ, demolished Pavlovich in just 69 seconds back in 2023 with blistering combos that left the Russian out cold. That lightning-quick knockout showcased Aspinall's superior speed and power, turning the fight into a one-sided affair despite stepping in on short notice after a grueling knee injury recovery.

Pavlovich, known as a knockout machine, will need to evolve his game plan to counter Aspinall's relentless pressure. But the odds heavily favor the Brit at 1.28, reflecting his dominance, while Pavlovich sits at 3.60 as the underdog. A draw at 33.00 feels like a long shot in this explosive division.

Aspinall's primed for redemption and looks untouchable right now. Betting $1 on him to win nets a solid return, building our bankroll smartly. This isn't just a fight; it's Aspinall stamping his legacy.

Tom Aspinall enters this rematch with immense confidence after his stunning 69-second knockout of Sergey Pavlovich in 2023. His lightning combos and speed proved decisive, even on short notice following a serious knee injury.

Pavlovich remains a dangerous knockout artist, but he must overcome the psychological hurdle of that rapid defeat. The odds favor Aspinall heavily at 1.28, while Pavlovich offers value at 3.60 as an underdog.

For profitability, Aspinall's superior agility and proven finishing ability make him the strategic choice. Expect him to replicate his success and defend his status as the hunted champ.

Tom Aspinall enters this heavyweight rematch with a psychological edge over Sergey Pavlovich, having dismantled him in just 69 seconds during their 2023 clash. Aspinall’s speed and precision were on full display that night, and his ability to adapt despite recovering from a serious knee injury speaks volumes about his resilience. The odds reflect Aspinall's dominance, with him sitting at 1.28, while Pavlovich lags behind at 3.60. While Pavlovich is known for his raw power, his inability to withstand Aspinall’s early pressure raises doubts about his chances here.

Pavlovich will likely aim to impose his physicality early, but Aspinall’s technical striking and movement make it difficult for opponents to close the distance. Given the prior knockout and Aspinall’s continued evolution as a fighter, Pavlovich faces an uphill battle unless he can significantly adjust his approach. However, rematches in MMA often carry unpredictability, especially when one fighter has something to prove. Still, the gap in skill and recent form leans heavily toward Aspinall.

Betting $1 on Aspinall may not yield massive returns due to the steep odds, but his consistency and demonstrated superiority make him the safer, more logical pick. Pavlovich’s 3.60 odds might tempt some bettors, but without evidence of tangible improvements, it’s hard to justify siding with him.