Betting tips from AI for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Minnesota Wild, 20 January 2026.

I like the Minnesota Wild as a value play here. The market prices Toronto at 1.79 while computer models give the Leafs only a 52.6% edge — that gap suggests upside backing Minnesota at 2.12. Goalies project almost even (Gustavsson ~24 saves vs Hildeby ~25) and Toronto is thinner without William Nylander, while Minnesota's top end (Kaprizov) can tilt a tight game.

The Wild's 8-1-6 record in one-goal games and Toronto's reliance on scoring three-plus (20-8-4 when they do) points to a close, swingy matchup. A high-scoring projection (4-3) keeps this contest alive late, but the price on Minnesota offers the best risk-reward versus the home favorite; I’ll take the upset over the chalk rather than the longshot draw at 4.20.

The Toronto Maple Leafs, playing at home, are slight favorites at 1.79, with betting models giving them a 52.6% edge. Computer projections are strongly pointing towards a high-scoring affair, forecasting a 4-3 Leafs victory and over 5.5 goals, which aligns perfectly with Toronto's impressive 20-8-4 record when they light the lamp three or more times.

While Minnesota's Kirill Kaprizov is always a threat, Auston Matthews is projected to have a more impactful night, with higher shot and goal projections. The Leafs will miss William Nylander, but the Wild are also without Marcus Johansson, balancing the injury scales slightly. Given the explicit 4-3 projection and Toronto's offensive prowess at home, the Leafs are set to take this one.

The Maple Leafs enter this contest as slight favorites at 1.79, and the numbers support that status. Toronto's impressive 20-8-4 record when scoring three or more goals demonstrates their offensive potency, which should be on full display in this projected high-scoring affair.

While Minnesota has shown resilience in tight games (8-1-6 in one-goal contests), they'll be missing Marcus Johansson, weakening their forward depth. The Wild's recent form—winning just two of their last five—further dampens their outlook.

The star matchup between Auston Matthews (projected 4.3 shots, 0.62 goals) and Kirill Kaprizov (3.7 shots, 0.59 goals) will be electric, but Matthews has the edge, especially with William Nylander still sidelined. Toronto's home-ice advantage at Scotiabank Arena should prove decisive in what computer models project as a 4-3 Leafs victory.

With Toronto's offense clicking and Minnesota missing key personnel, back the Leafs to cover as modest favorites.

The Toronto Maple Leafs welcome the Minnesota Wild to Scotiabank Arena in a matchup that's got all the makings of a high-octane NHL thriller. As slim favorites at 1.79, Toronto's 52.6% edge from betting models feels spot on, especially with their explosive offense clicking into gear. Auston Matthews is primed to dominate Kirill Kaprizov in this star-studded showdown, with projections pegging Matthews for 4.3 shots and a 0.62 goal output—enough to tilt the scales in a forecasted 4-3 Leafs victory.

Minnesota's no slouch, though, boasting an impressive 8-1-6 record in one-goal games and Filip Gustavsson expected to stonewall 24 shots. But the Wild are hampered by Marcus Johansson's lower-body injury sidelining him, and Simon Benoit's questionable status adds uncertainty. Meanwhile, Toronto's William Nylander is out, yet the Leafs have won three of their last five and thrive with 20-8-4 when lighting the lamp for three or more.

Computer models scream over 5.5 goals, highlighting Toronto's potency when they pot three-plus. The Wild snag just two wins in their last five, and despite Kaprizov's 3.7 shots and 0.59 goals, they can't match the Leafs' home-ice fire. This one's Toronto's to take, offering solid value against the 2.12 for Minnesota or the longshot 4.20 draw—perfect for a profitable $1 wager on the home side.

The stage is set for a thrilling NHL clash at Scotiabank Arena, where computer projections forecast a high-scoring 4-3 Leafs victory. Auston Matthews, pegged for 4.3 shots and a 54% shot at a point, outshines Wild star Kirill Kaprizov in a marquee matchup.

Injury woes tilt slightly against Minnesota, with Marcus Johansson sidelined and Simon Benoit questionable, while Toronto copes without William Nylander. The Leafs' strong 20-8-4 record when scoring over two goals contrasts with the Wild's mere two wins in their last five, despite their 8-1-6 mark in one-goal games.

With Toronto's offensive edge and home-ice advantage, betting on them at 1.79 offers value in a game poised for goals and a Leafs win.

This matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Minnesota Wild projects as a high-stakes, high-scoring affair. The Leafs enter with a slight edge at 1.79, supported by their home advantage at Scotiabank Arena and a favorable 52.6% win probability according to betting models. They've shown resilience recently, winning three of their last five games and boasting an impressive 20-8-4 record when scoring more than two goals. Auston Matthews is a key figure for Toronto, projected for 4.3 shots and a 54% chance of earning a point, making him a constant threat against Minnesota's defense.

The Wild, however, are no pushovers. Despite being underdogs at 2.12, they excel in tight contests, holding an 8-1-6 mark in one-goal games. Star Kirill Kaprizov could be pivotal, with projections of 3.7 shots and 0.59 goals. But Minnesota faces challenges, including injuries to Marcus Johansson and Simon Benoit, which weaken their depth. Toronto also misses William Nylander, but their balanced attack compensates for his absence.

The over/under line suggests a potential barnburner, with computer models forecasting a 4-3 Leafs victory. Given Toronto's offensive firepower and superior recent form, they appear better positioned to capitalize on this high-scoring trend. While Minnesota's grit can't be discounted, the odds and situational factors tilt the scales toward Toronto in what should be an entertaining clash.