Betting tips from AI for VfB Stuttgart vs Augsburg, 09 November 2025.

Market snapshot: Stuttgart are priced at 1.54, with the draw at 4.63 and Augsburg at 5.84. Those lines translate to implied probabilities around 65% home, 21.6% draw, and 17.1% away before removing the bookmaker margin. After a quick de‑vig, the market is saying roughly 63% Stuttgart, 21% draw, 17% Augsburg.

Team context tilts this further toward the hosts. Stuttgart’s five‑match league win streak just ended at Leipzig, but they remain a top‑four side with strong underlying momentum. Yes, the injury list is real: Zagadou (long‑term), Tiago Tomás, Stenzel, Justin Diehl, and backup keeper Drljača are sidelined, and Zagadou is not expected back for this one despite resuming training. The key positive, though, is Deniz Undav’s return to the starting XI after a lengthy knee layoff. His presence restores a clinical focal point and link play that Stuttgart missed during his absence, and it matters more to their ceiling than the listed outs do to their floor.

On the Augsburg side, the single biggest data point is Ermedin Demirović being out for several weeks. He’s their talismanic attacker and primary goal source; removing him typically dents chance quality and finishing, which is especially problematic away to a ball‑dominant Stuttgart. Even if Augsburg set up compact and look to counter, the loss of Demirović reduces both hold‑up value and the cutting edge on transitions. Without firm positive team news to offset that, it’s hard to argue for their upset path at current prices.

Tactically, expect Stuttgart to control territory and shots. They’ve been aggressive at home, and Undav’s reintegration should help attack patterns in the half‑spaces and around the penalty spot. Augsburg can threaten on set pieces and via wide counters, and Stuttgart’s defensive absences (particularly no Zagadou) are a non‑trivial risk for conceding. That said, the hosts’ chance volume and finishing upside outweigh Augsburg’s likely low‑frequency looks.

From a betting value standpoint, I estimate something like 66–69% for Stuttgart, 19–21% draw, 11–14% Augsburg. At the posted 1.54, a 68% true win probability yields positive expected value on the home moneyline. By contrast, the draw at 4.63 and Augsburg at 5.84 would need materially higher true probabilities than current matchup factors support. For a $1 stake, Stuttgart ML offers a small but real edge; the long shots don’t compensate enough for their likelihood.

Recommended bet: VfB Stuttgart moneyline at 1.54. It aligns with team news (Undav back vs. Demirović out), recent performance profile, and reasonable probability modeling. Risk note: if Undav’s minutes are managed or Stuttgart are wasteful, the draw is the main spoiler; however, over 90 minutes, the talent and shot volume gap should tell.

VfB Stuttgart enters this home fixture as the undeniable favorite, and the bookmakers' odds reflect that reality, pricing them at a short 1.54 for the win. Their lofty fourth-place standing in the Bundesliga is a testament to a stellar season, even with their recent five-match winning streak coming to an end against a formidable RB Leipzig side. A loss away to a top-three team is hardly a cause for alarm and shouldn't overshadow their dominant run of form prior to that match.

However, the situation is not without its complications for the home side. Stuttgart is navigating a significant injury crisis that could test its depth. Key central defender Dan-Axel Zagadou remains sidelined, a substantial loss for their backline. He is joined on the injury list by Pascal Stenzel, Tiago Tomás, Justin Diehl, and Stefan Drljača, depleting the squad across multiple positions. On a more positive note, the recent return of striker Deniz Undav to the starting lineup provides a much-needed boost to their attack, helping to mitigate some of the personnel losses.

While Stuttgart's injury list is concerning, it pales in comparison to the single, critical blow suffered by Augsburg. The visitors will be without their talisman and leading goal-scorer, Ermedin Demirović, who is sidelined with a foot injury. Losing the player responsible for a significant portion of their offensive output is a devastating handicap, particularly when facing a top-four team on the road. It's difficult to see where the goals will come from for an Augsburg side that would have been a significant underdog (5.84) even at full strength.

Ultimately, this match appears to be a classic case of a top team, despite being banged up, having more than enough quality to handle a compromised opponent. Stuttgart's home advantage at the MHPArena, combined with their superior league form and the return of Undav, should overwhelm an Augsburg attack that has been critically blunted by Demirović's absence. While Stuttgart's defense may be vulnerable, Augsburg lacks the firepower to truly exploit it.

VfB Stuttgart heads into this Bundesliga clash against Augsburg as strong favorites, and for good reason. Despite a recent stumble with a 3-1 loss to RB Leipzig that snapped their five-match winning streak, Stuttgart remains a formidable force at home. Sitting in fourth place, just two points behind Borussia Dortmund, they've shown resilience and attacking flair throughout the season. The return of striker Deniz Undav from a knee injury is a massive boost—he's already back in the starting lineup and could be the key to unlocking Augsburg's defense. However, injuries are a concern: Dan-Axel Zagadou is out with a fibula fracture, Tiago Tomás sidelined by a hip issue, and Pascal Stenzel nursing a muscle injury. Midfielder Justin Diehl and goalkeeper Stefan Drljača are also absent, expected back later in November, while Ermedin Demirović's foot injury keeps him out for weeks after scoring five goals in 10 games. Lorenz Assignon has resumed training, but Zagadou won't feature.

On the flip side, Augsburg comes in as underdogs with odds of 5.84, suggesting the bookmakers see little chance of an upset. Unfortunately, there's a lack of recent news on Augsburg's injuries or form, which might indicate a stable squad but also highlights their lower profile in the league. Without specific updates, we can assume they're at full strength, but historically, Augsburg has struggled against top teams like Stuttgart, especially away from home. Their last encounters often favored Stuttgart, and with no standout performers mentioned, it's hard to see them pulling off a surprise.

Betting-wise, Stuttgart's home advantage and overall quality make them the pick at 1.54. The odds imply about a 65% chance of a Stuttgart win, which feels undervalued given their position and Undav's return. While the injuries could cause some defensive vulnerabilities, Stuttgart's depth should cover it. The draw at 4.63 is tempting for risk-takers, but Augsburg hasn't shown the form to grind out a point here. If you're betting $1, putting it on Stuttgart could yield a solid return, especially if they bounce back from the Leipzig loss with a statement win. Keep an eye on any last-minute lineup changes, but based on the news, this looks like a home victory.

For enthusiasts, consider the context: Bundesliga matches like this often see high-scoring affairs, but with Stuttgart's absences, it might be tighter. Still, their attacking options outweigh Augsburg's, making this a profitable spot to back the favorites.

The Bundesliga encounter between VfB Stuttgart and Augsburg on November 9, 2025, sets the stage for a compelling matchup at Stuttgart's home ground. Stuttgart, currently fourth in the league and just two points behind Borussia Dortmund, is looking to recover from a 3-1 loss to RB Leipzig that ended their impressive five-match winning streak. However, they face significant hurdles with multiple key players sidelined due to injuries, including defenders Dan-Axel Zagadou and Pascal Stenzel, midfielder Justin Diehl, and striker Ermedin Demirović. The return of Deniz Undav after a knee injury provides a boost to their attack, but defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed.

Augsburg enters this contest with no specific injury news reported, suggesting they might field a full-strength squad. While their recent form isn't detailed in the sources, they are known for their resilience in away games, and Stuttgart's injury list could offer them chances to capitalize. In Bundesliga contexts, Augsburg often plays as an underdog, and without negative updates, they might put up a stiff resistance, especially if Stuttgart's makeshift defense struggles under pressure.

From a betting standpoint, the odds of 1.55 for a Stuttgart win indicate a high probability of around 64%, reflecting their status as favorites. Augsburg's odds of 5.95 and the draw at 4.57 imply lower chances of 17% and 22%, respectively, but offer attractive payouts for risk-takers. Considering Stuttgart's home advantage and Undav's comeback, I estimate their true win probability at about 60%, making the 1.55 odds slightly overvalued but still representing the most probable outcome. Augsburg's high odds might appeal to those betting on an upset, but without evidence of their current form, it remains a speculative move.

Overall, I believe VfB Stuttgart will secure a narrow victory, leveraging their superior league position and attacking reinforcements to overcome injury setbacks. While the match could be closer than expected, backing the home team aligns with the data and provides a reasonable edge for bettors seeking consistency over high-risk options.

VfB Stuttgart enters this Bundesliga matchup against Augsburg on November 9, 2025, as the clear favorite with odds of 1.54. Despite their recent setback—a 3-1 loss to RB Leipzig that ended a five-match winning streak—Stuttgart remains in fourth place in the league standings. However, the team is currently navigating a challenging period due to an extensive injury list. Key players like Dan-Axel Zagadou, Tiago Tomás, Pascal Stenzel, and Ermedin Demirović are unavailable, while Deniz Undav is still regaining full match fitness after recovering from a knee injury. These absences could significantly weaken Stuttgart’s defensive solidity and attacking potency.
Augsburg, on the other hand, comes into this fixture without any notable injury updates or form indicators based on the available information. While lack of context about their recent performances might seem like a disadvantage, it also means there’s no evidence suggesting they’re in poor shape. The odds for an Augsburg victory stand at 5.84, reflecting their underdog status but hinting at potential value if Stuttgart struggles to perform optimally.
Considering Stuttgart’s depleted squad, particularly in defense and attack, they may find it difficult to dominate proceedings against a presumably organized Augsburg side. Even though Stuttgart has home advantage, their reliance on returning players like Undav introduces uncertainty into their lineup cohesion. Meanwhile, the draw option offers odds of 4.63, which presents itself as an attractive proposition given Stuttgart’s vulnerabilities and Augsburg’s unknown yet potentially resilient form.