Betting tips from AI for Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Shamil Gaziev, 22 November 2025.

This is a classic heavyweight volatility spot where the market leans toward Waldo Cortes-Acosta at 1.74 against Shamil Gaziev at 2.18 (Draw 33.00). The headline variable is timing: Cortes-Acosta is stepping in on just three days’ notice. In a division where one clean shot can decide a fight and conditioning swings outcomes, that prep window matters more than usual.

Cortes-Acosta’s 2025 run is impressive (3-1 with recent KOs), and his tools—sharp boxing, active jab, and calf kicks—are exactly what you want to keep a big puncher like Gaziev honest. He’s shown resilience, including a controversial TKO over Ante Delija, and Artem MMA’s public pick for him isn’t without merit. But five UFC appearances this year and a last-minute call-up raise questions about gas tank and tactical specificity for Gaziev’s particular threats.

Gaziev is a momentum finisher: powerful hands, heavy pressure, and the willingness to exchange early. The knocks—stiff movement and suspect cardio, highlighted in the Rozenstruik loss—are real. Yet in Qatar, with regional familiarity and likely crowd tailwind, his early-round aggression becomes even more valuable. If he forces exchanges in R1–R2, he doesn’t need to pass a long conditioning test to win.

Tactically, this fight is minutes vs moments. Over full rounds with camp-level conditioning, Cortes-Acosta probably wins more minutes jabbing, chopping legs, and turning Gaziev. On three days’ notice, that edge erodes: lateral movement fades, entries are a half-step late, and defensive reactions slow just enough for Gaziev’s bursts to find the target. Heavyweights don’t need many clean opportunities.

From a numbers angle, the implied probabilities are roughly 57.6% for Cortes-Acosta at 1.74 and 45.9% for Gaziev at 2.18 (with the book’s overround baked in). My read shifts Gaziev into the 49–52% range given the short-notice cardio tax and early KO upside, which turns his price into a positive expected value. At 50%, a $1 stake on 2.18 yields an expected return near +9%—a sensible stab in a high-variance division. The draw at 33.00 is not appealing given rarity and judging trends.

The clearest path-to-victory split: Gaziev early KO/TKO versus Cortes-Acosta by decision or late attrition. With the prep disadvantage and travel, the window for Gaziev’s kill shots widens. The pick is the underdog moneyline.

Recommendation: Bet Shamil Gaziev at 2.18. Expect a fast start, pressure, and finishing intent to capitalize on a short-notice opponent before minute-winning tools can accumulate.

This heavyweight clash presents a classic betting dilemma: the active, durable fighter versus the powerful, prepared specialist. However, the context surrounding this matchup pushes the needle firmly in one direction. Waldo Cortes-Acosta steps in on just three days' notice, a monumental disadvantage in the UFC. While his activity in 2025 is admirable, showing he's always in fighting shape, a short-notice replacement lacks the strategic preparation and opponent-specific drilling that a full camp provides. This is especially dangerous against a fighter like Shamil Gaziev.

Gaziev, despite his somewhat plodding style that has earned him the moniker "The Blob," possesses fight-ending power in his hands. He has been preparing for a full camp, albeit for a different opponent, meaning his conditioning and timing should be at their peak. He only has one blemish on his record, a loss to the dangerous striker Jairzinho Rozenstruik, which is hardly a sign of a weak chin. Against an opponent who hasn't had time to game plan for his specific brand of pressure and power, Gaziev's path to victory is clear and direct: an early finish.

Cortes-Acosta's path to victory relies on his superior boxing technique, footwork, and cardio. His strategy would be to survive the initial onslaught, use leg kicks to slow Gaziev down, and out-volume him in the later rounds as Gaziev's questionable gas tank begins to fail. While this is a plausible scenario in a fight where both men have full camps, it's a much riskier proposition on three days' notice. Cortes-Acosta won't have had the reps to drill the specific defensive footwork and head movement needed to evade Gaziev's bombs.

The betting line makes Cortes-Acosta a slight favorite at 1.74, likely due to his recent activity and wins. However, this fails to properly weigh the massive impact of the short-notice change. The value lies squarely with Shamil Gaziev as the underdog at 2.18. He has the power, the preparation, and a clear opportunity to capitalize on an opponent who is walking into the cage unprepared. We are betting on the prepared power puncher to get the job done early against a game but ill-prepared opponent.

This heavyweight clash presents a fascinating stylistic matchup between two fighters at different career crossroads. Waldo Cortes-Acosta enters as the 1.74 favorite despite accepting this fight on just three days' notice, replacing Serghei Spivac for the third time their bout has fallen through.

Cortes-Acosta's 2024 campaign has been impressive, going 3-1 with notable knockout victories over Ryan Spann and Ante Delija. His recent activity is a significant advantage - five UFC appearances in 2025 demonstrates his conditioning and readiness. The Cuban heavyweight possesses solid boxing fundamentals and effective leg kicks that could prove crucial in controlling distance against Gaziev's power.

Shamil Gaziev carries legitimate knockout power and remains largely undefeated in the UFC outside his loss to elite contender Jairzinho Rozenstruik. His February highlight-reel knockout of Thomas Peterson showcased his finishing ability. However, Gaziev's conditioning and movement have drawn consistent criticism throughout his career, earning him unflattering nicknames from fans.

The short notice factor cuts both ways. While Cortes-Acosta may not be in peak condition, his recent activity suggests he stays in fighting shape year-round. Gaziev, despite having a full camp, has historically struggled with cardio in longer fights.

Expert analysis from Artem MMA supports Cortes-Acosta's technical advantages, particularly his ability to maintain distance and utilize superior boxing. The controversial nature of his recent TKO victory over Delija shouldn't overshadow his overall improvements and activity level.

Given the 2.18 odds on Gaziev, there's value in backing the more active, technically sound fighter who has proven his durability and finishing ability throughout 2024.

In the heavyweight division of the UFC, we've got an intriguing matchup between Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Shamil Gaziev set for November 22, 2025, in Qatar. Cortes-Acosta is stepping in on just three days' notice, replacing Serghei Spivac, which adds a layer of unpredictability to this fight. But don't let the short notice fool you—Cortes-Acosta has been on a tear this year, going 3-1 in his four UFC appearances in 2025 alone. His recent knockouts over Ryan Spann and Ante Delija showcase his striking prowess and resilience, even if that TKO over Delija stirred some controversy among fans about the stoppage.

Gaziev, on the other hand, brings an undefeated streak in the UFC barring that TKO loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik. His highlight-reel knockout of Thomas Peterson back in February highlights his devastating power, which has earned him a reputation as a knockout artist. However, criticisms about his movement and conditioning—earning him the nickname 'The Blob'—could be a significant drawback, especially against a more agile opponent like Cortes-Acosta.

Looking at the odds, Cortes-Acosta is favored at 1.74, while Gaziev sits as the underdog at 2.18, with a draw at a distant 33.00. This reflects the bookmakers' confidence in Cortes-Acosta's recent form and activity level. Well-known MMA analyst Artem MMA backs Cortes-Acosta to win, pointing to his superior boxing, effective leg kicks, and ability to maintain distance against Gaziev's power strikes. I agree with this assessment; Cortes-Acosta's experience in keeping fights at range could neutralize Gaziev's one-punch knockout threat.

The fact that this fight is in Qatar means no home advantage for either, but the stakes are high. A win could propel the victor into a top-10 contender bout, especially with the heavyweight division's current volatility. Gaziev's power is real, but his questionable cardio might not hold up if Cortes-Acosta drags this into later rounds. Cortes-Acosta's recent activity—five fights in 2025—keeps him sharp, while Gaziev hasn't fought since February, potentially leading to ring rust.

Betting-wise, putting $1 on Cortes-Acosta at 1.74 feels like a solid play for profitability. It requires a bit more stake to win big, but his momentum and stylistic advantages make him the smarter pick. If you're looking for value, Gaziev's 2.18 offers upside for those believing in his power, but I see Cortes-Acosta controlling the pace and securing the victory, possibly by decision or late stoppage. This clash has all the makings of a pivotal heavyweight bout, and I'm riding with the active fighter who's proven he can handle pressure.

In a high-stakes heavyweight clash in Qatar, Waldo Cortes-Acosta's short-notice replacement role adds intrigue to his matchup with the undefeated Shamil Gaziev. With both fighters vying for a potential top-10 contender spot, this bout is pivotal in a division known for its volatility. Cortes-Acosta enters as the favorite at 1.74, reflecting his consistent activity and recent successes, while Gaziev's 2.18 odds present an attractive underdog opportunity for bettors willing to gamble on his knockout power. However, a deeper analysis of their styles and recent news reveals where the true value lies for a profitable wager.

Cortes-Acosta's busy 2025 campaign—five UFC appearances with a 3-1 record, including knockouts of Ryan Spann and Ante Delija—demonstrates his durability and improved striking. Despite stepping in on just three days' notice, his year-round activity suggests he remains in peak physical condition, mitigating the typical risks of short preparation. His boxing skills and effective leg kicks, as highlighted by analyst Artem MMA, provide a tactical edge to control distance and wear down opponents. Although his controversial TKO win over Delija sparked debate, it also underscores his ability to seize opportunities under pressure, a trait that bettors should value in a fighter who consistently delivers finishes.

Gaziev, on the other hand, brings undeniable power, evidenced by his highlight-reel knockout of Thomas Peterson and an undefeated UFC record outside of a loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik. His one-punch threat makes him a live underdog, capable of ending the fight abruptly. However, criticisms of his movement and conditioning—often joked about with the 'The Blob' nickname—point to significant vulnerabilities. In a division where cardio can be decisive, Gaziev's tendency to slow down in later rounds could be exploited by a conditioned opponent like Cortes-Acosta, who has shown resilience in extended battles.

The analyst prediction from Artem MMA favoring Cortes-Acosta adds weight to this assessment, emphasizing how technical superiority can neutralize raw power. From a betting perspective, Cortes-Acosta's 1.74 odds imply a win probability of approximately 58%, which aligns well with his recent form and Gaziev's documented flaws. Gaziev's 2.18 might lure risk-takers, but his conditioning issues and less refined skills reduce the likelihood of an upset. The draw at 33.00 is negligible here, as heavyweight fights rarely go the distance, especially with both fighters possessing finishing ability.

Ultimately, Cortes-Acosta's activity, technical acumen, and ability to adapt make him the more reliable pick for profitability. While Gaziev's power ensures this fight carries inherent risk, the value clearly rests with the favorite. Betting on Cortes-Acosta at 1.74 offers a solid expected return, supported by data and expert insight, in a matchup where consistency should prevail over explosiveness.

This heavyweight matchup between Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Shamil Gaziev presents an intriguing clash of styles, recent form, and situational factors that make it a compelling betting opportunity. Cortes-Acosta enters this fight on short notice, replacing Serghei Spivac, but his impressive 3-1 record in 2025 suggests he’s thriving under pressure. His recent victories over Ryan Spann and Ante Delija highlight his dangerous striking arsenal, particularly his leg kicks and boxing precision. While his controversial TKO win over Delija sparked debate, the stoppage demonstrated his ability to capitalize on openings when opponents are vulnerable.
Gaziev, on the other hand, is known for his raw knockout power, as evidenced by his highlight-reel finish against Thomas Peterson earlier this year. However, his conditioning and movement have been consistent points of criticism, with fans dubbing him “The Blob” due to his lack of agility. Despite his undefeated UFC record outside of a TKO loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Gaziev’s inability to adapt strategically against more technical fighters could prove costly against Cortes-Acosta, who excels at controlling distance and dictating pace.
Artem MMA’s prediction favoring Cortes-Acosta aligns with the stylistic breakdown of this fight. Cortes-Acosta’s technical boxing and leg kicks should allow him to keep Gaziev at bay, neutralizing his opponent’s greatest weapon: his power. Gaziev will likely look for a single, decisive strike to end the fight early, but Cortes-Acosta’s activity level and recent experience in high-pressure situations give him the edge in navigating this challenge. Additionally, Gaziev’s frustration over the repeatedly canceled bout with Spivac may subtly affect his mental preparation, while Cortes-Acosta appears unfazed stepping into this role.
From a betting perspective, the odds reflect Cortes-Acosta’s slight favorite status at 1.74, with Gaziev sitting at 2.18. The significant gap between these numbers highlights Cortes-Acosta’s perceived advantage, especially considering his momentum and versatility. The draw odds of 33.00 emphasize how unlikely a stalemate is in this heavyweight division, where knockouts are common.
Cortes-Acosta’s activity in 2025 cannot be overstated; he has competed four times already this year, sharpening his skills and gaining valuable octagon time. This contrasts sharply with Gaziev’s relatively limited appearances, which may hinder his ability to adjust mid-fight. Moreover, Cortes-Acosta’s resilience and strategic approach suggest he can weather any early storms from Gaziev and potentially wear him down as the fight progresses.