Betting tips from AI for Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys, 25 December 2025.

I trust the Cowboys to win this one. Washington's quarterback situation is a mess — Jayden Daniels is out for the year and Marcus Mariota is sidelined, leaving the Commanders with a true question mark at the most important position. Dallas come in as heavy favorites (1.28) while Washington is listed at 3.71.

Trends make this interesting — underdogs have popped against Dallas recently and the Cowboys are on a three-game skid — but the underlying reality favors Dallas. CBS models peg Dallas as a 7-point road favorite in a projected shootout (O/U 50.5), and Pickswise even backs the Cowboys to cover 6.5. With Washington 9-of-10 losers and no viable QB stability, backing the Cowboys to get the win is the sensible, profitable play.

This Christmas Day clash at FedExField presents a fascinating betting scenario, even with both teams out of playoff contention. While the Dallas Cowboys limp in on a three-game skid, their opponent, the Washington Commanders, faces an absolute nightmare under center. With Jayden Daniels shut down for the year and Marcus Mariota sidelined, Washington's starting quarterback is a total question mark, a critical blow that will severely hamper their offense.

Expert Andrew Wilsher at Pickswise highlights Washington's abysmal 9-4 failure to cover this season and their shocking 17 losses in 20 home games against sub-.500 teams. This trend, coupled with their inability to cover without Terry McLaurin, paints a grim picture. While CBS Sports models note "upset potential" and recent trends show underdogs have had success against Dallas, predicting an outright Commanders victory at 3.71 feels like a bridge too far given their current QB woes.

The Cowboys, despite their recent struggles and a tendency to "bomb" as road chalk against division rivals, still possess superior talent. Their dominant 9-game winning streak as NFC East favorites cannot be ignored. Even a slumping Dallas, priced at 1.28, should have enough firepower to overcome a Commanders squad in complete disarray. This isn't about covering the spread, but about the outright winner, and the Commanders' QB situation makes their path to victory almost non-existent.

The Cowboys enter as heavy 1.28 favorites against a Commanders team in quarterback chaos. With Jayden Daniels shut down for the season and Marcus Mariota battling injuries, Washington's offense faces a significant uphill battle.

Dallas hasn't been impressive lately, dropping three straight including a 34-17 loss to the Chargers. However, they've historically dominated as NFC East favorites, winning nine consecutive divisional matchups in that role.

The Commanders' 9-4 failure to cover the spread this season is concerning, as is their abysmal 3-17 record in their last 20 home games against teams with losing records. Without Terry McLaurin, Washington has failed to cover in nine of their last ten games.

While underdogs have won four of the Cowboys' last five games, Dallas' offensive firepower should overwhelm a depleted Commanders squad. The Cowboys will capitalize on Washington's quarterback uncertainty to snap their losing streak with a convincing road victory.

The NFL's Christmas Day clash at FedExField pits a desperate Dallas Cowboys squad against a reeling Washington Commanders team, both with playoff dreams in tatters. Dallas, nursing a three-game skid capped by a 34-17 thrashing from the Chargers, enters as heavy road favorites at 1.28, with models projecting a 7-point edge in a potential shootout (O/U 50.5). Yet, underdog trends add intrigue: Washington's pups have toppled foes in four of Dallas' last five outings, and the Cowboys have bombed four of five as road chalk versus division rivals.

Washington's QB crisis is a nightmare—Jayden Daniels is done for the year with an elbow issue, Marcus Mariota's out with hand and quad injuries, leaving a total unknown under center. The Commanders have covered just one of their last 13 spreads and dropped nine of ten, including a 29-18 gut-punch to the Eagles. Still, Dallas' road woes against NFC East foes scream value on the upset, especially with Washington's home skid against sub-.500 teams (17 losses in 20). Pickswise's Andrew Wilsher backs Dallas to cover the 6.5, but betting models and history point to a gritty Commanders pushback.

For bettors eyeing profit on that $1 stake, the Cowboys' talent should prevail in this high-stakes divisional grudge match, covering and winning outright despite the chaos.

The Dallas Cowboys are hefty 1.28 favorites, but their three-game skid and 34-17 loss to the Chargers expose vulnerabilities, especially as road chalk against division foes.

Washington's QB nightmare with Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota out is dire, yet underdogs have won four of Dallas' last five, and the Commanders' 3.71 odds offer immense value in a rivalry where trends scream upset potential despite their own struggles.

The matchup between the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys presents an intriguing betting puzzle, especially with both teams struggling through disappointing seasons. The Cowboys enter as heavy favorites at 1.28, while the Commanders sit at a tempting 3.71. However, recent trends suggest this game might not follow the script.

Dallas has been abysmal on the road against divisional opponents, failing to cover in four of their last five such contests. Their offense, despite its talent, looked disjointed in a 34-17 loss to the Chargers, raising concerns about consistency. Meanwhile, Washington's quarterback situation is dire, with Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota sidelined. This leaves them with minimal firepower to challenge Dallas directly.

Yet, there’s a twist. Underdogs have won four of the Cowboys' last five games outright, and Washington tends to rise to the occasion against stronger NFC East foes, even if they don’t always cover. The betting line suggests a blowout, but history hints at a tighter contest. With Dallas’ struggles as road chalk and Washington’s occasional flashes of defiance, backing the underdog could yield value.

Considering all factors, the safer bet leans toward Dallas winning outright given their superior roster and Washington's QB woes.