Alessandro Costa vs Alden Coria — ChatGPT betting tip 13 September 2025.

This is classic flyweight matchmaking between a proven, composed technician and an ambitious, explosive underdog. The market has planted its flag: Alessandro Costa at 1.25, Alden Coria at 4.20, and the draw a near-impossibility at 50.00. With small gloves and fast scrambles, MMA always carries upset equity, but the question for a bettor is whether the underdog’s chances truly exceed his break-even threshold—or if the favorite is still underpriced despite a big number.

Stylistically, Costa is a compact pressure boxer-kicker with sharp counters and a mean calf-kick game. He does his best work cutting the cage, touching the body, and punishing exits with low kicks that quickly change how an opponent moves. He’s comfortable in messy exchanges but typically keeps his feet set and his eyes disciplined, which is why he tends to win minutes even before momentum swings to him. Add in reliable defensive grappling and top control when he decides to mix in a takedown, and you have a fighter who can win rounds in multiple ways—on the feet through attrition or by bankable control time.

Coria brings the underdog tools you want to see: bursty entries, long straight shots, and scrambles that can turn a defensive sequence into a back-take or a surprise choke. His best window is early, when speed parity is highest and counters are freshest. However, tape suggests he’s more comfortable dictating than reacting; when pressured, he can give ground in straight lines and allow himself to be herded to the fence, where Costa’s calf kicks, body work, and level-change feints start to stack. Over three rounds, that tendency can snowball into a gap on the scorecards—or into attritional damage that opens a finish.

Let’s talk price. The favorite’s line of 1.25 implies roughly 80.0% win probability; the dog at 4.20 implies about 23.8%. Draws at 50.00 are functionally noise in modern MMA scoring. My read places Costa in the 82–84% range given his minute-winning tools, layered defense, and better-tested strength of schedule. That nudges a fair line closer to the mid -500s, meaning the current number on Costa is still playable from a pure expected value standpoint.

Paths to victory align with that math. Costa can bag minutes with calf kicks and counters, then mix in wrestling to freeze Coria’s rhythm. If Coria steals it, it’s likely an early momentum swing—fast counter catching Costa squared up, or a front-headlock scramble snaring a neck. That’s the danger we price in, not the base case we bet on.

The $1 play here is straightforward: take Costa moneyline at 1.25. It won’t wow the bankroll in one shot, but as a long-run proposition, backing a minute-winner with multiple win conditions and superior proven opposition at an 80% tag that should be a touch higher is the smarter side.