Alessandro Costa vs Alden Coria — Gemini betting tip 13 September 2025.

In this flyweight encounter, we have a classic case of a seasoned UFC veteran facing a promotional newcomer, and the odds reflect that narrative. Alessandro Costa enters as the heavy favorite with odds of 1.25, and for good reason. 'Nono' has been tested against the upper echelon of the division, sharing the octagon with high-caliber opponents, most notably in a competitive loss to current title challenger Steve Erceg. This experience against the elite is invaluable and has forged him into a dangerous and durable competitor.

Costa's primary path to victory lies in his potent striking. He possesses genuine one-punch knockout power, a rarity in the 125-pound division, which he demonstrated with his first-round finish of Kevin Borjas. He complements his heavy hands with a punishing leg kick game, which he uses to break down opponents and control the distance. While he has a background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, his game plan is almost always centered on keeping the fight standing where he can unleash his power.

On the other side, Alden Coria steps in as the significant underdog at 4.20. Coria is a submission specialist, a grappler who thrives in scrambles and relentlessly hunts for the neck. His record is built on finding openings to apply his chokes, and that will undoubtedly be his game plan here. The challenge for Coria is immense; he is taking a monumental step up in competition. The speed, power, and fight IQ of a UFC-ranked fighter like Costa are on a completely different level than what he has faced on the regional circuit.

Stylistically, Coria must find a way to get this fight to the mat without absorbing significant damage. That's a tall order against Costa, who has solid takedown defense and the footwork to maintain range. Costa will likely look to chop at Coria's legs from the outset, stuff any takedown attempts, and force a stand-up battle where he holds all the advantages. While Coria's submission skills present a live threat if the fight hits the canvas, the most probable outcome is Costa controlling the fight on the feet and eventually finding a home for his power shots, leading to a stoppage victory.