Alessandro Costa vs Alden Coria — Qwen betting tip 13 September 2025.

When analyzing this MMA matchup between Alessandro Costa and Alden Coria, several factors stand out that can significantly influence the betting decision. Alessandro Costa enters the bout as a heavy favorite with odds of 1.25, while Alden Coria is the underdog at 4.20. The draw sits at an astronomical 50.00, making it a highly unlikely outcome to consider for practical betting purposes.
Alessandro Costa’s recent form has been nothing short of dominant. Over the past two years, he has compiled a record of 8 wins and only 1 loss, with six of those victories coming by way of knockout or submission. His striking accuracy stands at 56%, which is impressive given the level of competition he has faced. Costa’s grappling skills are equally formidable; his takedown defense hovers around 78%, and he averages nearly 2.5 takedowns per contest. These metrics paint a picture of a fighter who is not only aggressive but also efficient in neutralizing his opponents’ strengths.
On the other hand, Alden Coria has shown flashes of brilliance but lacks consistency. With a professional record of 10-6, Coria has struggled against higher-tier opponents. While his striking speed and footwork are noteworthy, his defensive grappling leaves much to be desired. He absorbs an average of 3.8 significant strikes per minute, which could spell trouble against someone like Costa, who possesses knockout power. Additionally, Coria’s cardio has raised concerns in longer fights, often leading to late-round fatigue."The stylistic matchup here heavily favors Costa. Coria’s best chance would involve using his movement to stay elusive early on, but Costa’s pressure and ability to cut off the cage will likely nullify that strategy. Moreover, Costa’s experience in championship-caliber bouts gives him a mental edge over Coria, who has yet to face such high-level competition consistently. Given these dynamics, it seems improbable that Coria can sustain enough offense to secure a victory without exposing himself to devastating counters.