Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson — ChatGPT betting tip 12 October 2025.

Market snapshot: Deiveson Figueiredo at 3.28, Montel Jackson at 1.36, Draw at 70.00. Pricing that wide says the market expects Jackson to control range and win minutes, but it likely underrates Figueiredo’s finishing craft and big-moment equity at bantamweight. For a $1 stab aimed at long-term profit, I’m siding with the undervalued ex-champion.

Figueiredo is a proven A-level winner with championship experience, elite submission threats (especially his vice-grip guillotine and back takes), and explosive counters. The move to 135 has helped his durability and output; he beat seasoned opposition after leaving flyweight, showing his power and grappling translate against bigger men. He doesn’t need volume to swing rounds—he needs moments, and he creates them reliably.

Jackson is a long, patient southpaw with a sharp jab and a crushing straight left. He’s composed, accurate, and physically imposing for the division. His takedown defense has improved, and he punishes sloppy entries with frames, knees, and counters. The question isn’t whether Jackson is good—he is—but how he fares when an elite scrambler forces layered grappling exchanges and opportunistic front-headlocks.

The key tactical hinges: Figueiredo chopping the lead leg to slow Jackson’s stance switches, crashing the pocket behind overhands, and turning cage clinches into snap-downs where his guillotine and back exposure games flourish. Jackson keeps range, numbers, and balance; Figueiredo hunts high-leverage spots—front headlocks, scrambles off caught kicks, and sudden momentum swings.

Risks on the dog: size and length. Jackson can bank rounds if he dictates distance, touching Figueiredo with the jab and body work while denying clean entries. At 37–38, Figueiredo’s margin is smaller than in his flyweight prime. If the fight is slow and clean, the optics favor Jackson.

But prices matter. Implied probability on 3.28 is roughly 30–31%, while 1.36 suggests about 73%. Given Figueiredo’s finishing upside and knack for swinging close rounds, I project him closer to 38–42%. At 40%, a $1 bet has positive expectation: 0.40 × 2.28 − 0.60 × 1 ≈ +0.31 expected return. That’s a meaningful edge.

The draw at 70.00 remains a lottery ticket in three-round MMA; point deductions or rare 28–28s happen, but not often enough to justify a main play when the dog ML is mispriced.

Practical plan: take Figueiredo moneyline at 3.28. I’d bet down to around +200; under +190, the edge thins. If you’re line-shopping, any drift toward +240 sweetens it. Method-of-victory sprinkles (submission) make narrative sense, but the cleanest EV is the ML given round-swinging power and grappling.

Bottom line: Jackson’s size and range tools are real, but the number overstates the gap in class. The ex-champ’s opportunism, squeeze, and big-moment creation make him the sharper $1 shot at current odds.