Jesus Santos Aguilar vs Luis Gurule — ChatGPT betting tip 13 September 2025.

Classic buy-low spot on a gritty, proven flyweight against a largely untested favorite. The market has Luis Gurule pegged as the A-side at 1.51, while Jesus Santos Aguilar sits at a very playable 2.66. At flyweight, where pace, durability, and minute-winning sequences matter as much as raw power, that dog price on Aguilar is hard to ignore.

Aguilar is a compact pressure fighter who excels at collapsing space, chopping the calf, and forcing clinch exchanges that turn into mat returns. His best weapons are the overhand right, short counters in the pocket, and a sneaky snap guillotine that discourages sloppy level changes. He’s physically strong for the division, keeps a steady motor, and increasingly understands how to win rounds: cage push, control, short ground-and-pound, and punctuating moments that stick with judges.

Gurule looks the part of a fast-twitch striker: quick hands, clean 1-2s, and the kind of burst that can swing early sequences. He moves well in open space and can pile up damage if allowed to dictate range. The question marks are typical of a newcomer jumping in class: how stable is his takedown defense against layered entries, how he deals with being clinched and mat-returned repeatedly, and how his output holds up past the adrenaline dump of a high-pace flyweight bout.

Stylistically, this tilts toward a grind that favors the known wrestler-pressurer. Aguilar’s low stance and timing can slip under Gurule’s combinations, turning defensive shelling into quick level changes. Once he pins Gurule to the fence, he’s adept at chaining singles to body locks, then riding hips and peppering with damage. Even if the takedowns aren’t clean every time, the cumulative effect—leg kicks, fence stalls, and resets after mat returns—banks minutes.

Early danger is real; Gurule’s best window is the first five minutes when his speed and pop are at their peak. If Aguilar survives the initial bursts and starts to slow the fight with clinches and kicks, rounds two and three become his. On the cards, judges increasingly lean toward effective damage, but top pressure with elbows and clear control still score, especially at flyweight when the opponent is stuck defending.

From a numbers lens, 2.66 implies roughly 37.6% break-even, while 1.51 implies about 66.2%. I rate Aguilar closer to 42–45% given his experience and minute-winning path, which makes the underdog a positive expected value. The draw at 38.00 implies around 2.6%; true draw frequency in this division is notably lower, so there’s little value there.

The bet: take Jesus Santos Aguilar moneyline at 2.66. Pass on Gurule at 1.51 and the draw at 38.00. If props open, tiny sprinkles on Aguilar Round 2/3 or decision would align with the projected script, but the core value is the dog moneyline.