Jesus Santos Aguilar vs Luis Gurule — Gemini betting tip 13 September 2025.

In this flyweight contest, we have a classic striker versus grappler showdown between Luis Gurule and Jesus Santos Aguilar. Gurule, the favorite at 1.51, enters this fight on the heels of a highly impressive performance on Dana White's Contender Series. He showcased crisp, powerful boxing, excellent footwork, and most importantly, solid takedown defense. That last skill will be the absolute key to this fight.

Jesus Santos Aguilar, priced as the underdog at 2.66, is almost entirely reliant on his grappling to win fights at the UFC level. Seven of his ten professional victories have come by way of submission, and his game plan is no secret: close the distance, get the fight to the mat, and hunt for a finish. However, his UFC tenure has revealed some significant flaws. He was being thoroughly out-grappled by Tatsuro Taira before a DQ saved him, and he was brutally knocked out by Mateus Mendonca, exposing a major liability in his striking defense.

This fight will be determined by whether Aguilar can successfully implement his grappling. Based on the evidence, it seems unlikely. Gurule demonstrated the ability to stuff takedowns against a determined opponent on DWCS, and his striking is leagues ahead of Aguilar's. He throws with volume and power, and he's adept at maintaining distance. Aguilar will be forced to wade through significant damage to even attempt a takedown, and his chin has already been proven to be suspect.

While Aguilar's tenacity on the ground is always a threat, Gurule has more ways to win this fight. He can pick Aguilar apart from range for a comfortable decision victory or land a clean, powerful shot to end the night early. The stylistic matchup heavily favors the superior striker who has shown the requisite defensive skills to keep the fight in his world. Expect Gurule to control the octagon, stuff the takedown attempts, and ultimately punish Aguilar on the feet for a decisive win.