Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara — ChatGPT betting tip 27 September 2025.

Market first: the line has Alexia Thainara priced as a clear favorite at 1.40 (implied ~71.6%), while Loma Lookboonmee sits at a tempting 3.10 (~32.3%). A draw at 35.00 is a lottery ticket in MMA and not a serious consideration. When pricing a fight like this, I’m looking for where the model and matchup say the underdog wins more often than the market implies, because that’s where long-term profit lives.

Loma is a known quantity: a high-level Muay Thai convert with excellent balance, frames, and a nasty clinch game. She’s compact for the division, but she uses that low center of gravity to pummel for inside position, off-balance opponents with trips, and score clean knees and elbows. At range, her teeps and low kicks add steady damage and help her control tempo. Over the past few years, her defensive grappling and scrambling have quietly improved; she’s better at fighting hands, turning the fence, and standing up when taken down. Cardio and composure are also steady strengths—she typically looks as measured late as she does early, which matters in close, grindy rounds that the judges decide by small margins.

The classical blueprint to beat Loma has been strength and insistence: chain-wrestling into mat time, or stick-and-move volume that denies clinch entries. If Alexia brings a pressure-wrestling style with good cage cuts and can reliably finish shots off the fence, her favorite tag makes sense. But that’s a narrower win condition than the price suggests, because getting Loma flat on her back and keeping her there for long pockets is harder than it looks; she’s difficult to hold down, and her inside reaps can reverse position quickly. If Alexia instead chooses to strike or tires from heavy wrestling, the minute-winning tends to swing back toward Loma’s clean body work, kicks, and clinch knees.

From a scoring perspective, this profiles as a decision-heavy fight. Loma’s path is damage and control in the clinch, plus attritional kicks at range; Alexia’s path is optics—top time, fence control, and short GNP—if her wrestling holds. In a close three-rounder where small sequences decide rounds, the underdog premium matters.

At 3.10, we need Loma to win roughly 32–33% of the time to break even. Given her balance, clinch superiority, and improved takedown defense, I rate her closer to the low-40% range, making this a positive expected value position. You won’t get a safer side than the favorite, but you will get the better long-term bet with the dog at this number.

The bet: Loma Lookboonmee moneyline at 3.10. Expect a competitive decision where her clinch work and cleaner strikes edge tight rounds. If Alexia can’t sustain wrestling pressure for 15 minutes, the value swings decisively to Loma.