Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara — Gemini betting tip 27 September 2025.

This strawweight bout presents a fascinating and classic MMA puzzle: the elite striker versus the dangerous grappler. Alexia Thainara enters as the significant favorite at 1.40, and for good reason. Her entire game is built around her Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu prowess. Thainara's path to victory is unambiguous: close the distance, secure a takedown, and hunt for a submission. If this fight spends significant time on the canvas, Thainara holds a massive, potentially fight-ending, advantage.

However, the value in this matchup lies squarely with the underdog, Loma Lookboonmee, offered at attractive 3.10 odds. Loma is a decorated Muay Thai world champion, and her striking is among the best in the division. Her technique, volume, and vicious clinch game are her primary weapons. She will look to use her footwork to maintain distance, peppering Thainara with kicks and punches from the outside. If Thainara does manage to close the distance, Loma's clinch work, with its sharp elbows and knees, could serve as a powerful deterrent to takedown attempts.

The entire fight hinges on a single question: can Loma keep it standing? Her takedown defense has been a work in progress throughout her UFC career, and it will be tested like never before against a dedicated submission artist like Thainara. However, she has shown improvements in her defensive grappling, and she doesn't need to be an impenetrable wall. She simply needs to defend enough takedowns, or scramble back to her feet quickly, to allow her superior striking to dictate the fight.

From a betting perspective, laying 1.40 on a one-dimensional fighter like Thainara is a risky proposition. If she fails to get the fight to her world, she is likely to be picked apart on the feet. The odds on Loma Lookboonmee offer a substantial reward for backing a fighter with a clear and potent path to victory. She has the experience and the striking arsenal to win a decision or even find a TKO. This is a high-risk, high-reward value play on the underdog's ability to execute a disciplined, anti-grappling game plan.