Lukasz Charzewski vs Piotr Kacprzak — ChatGPT betting tip 20 September 2025.

This matchup profiles as a classic striker vs. wrestler battle where minute-winning and round-stealing tools matter more than highlight moments. The market leans to Lukasz Charzewski at 1.74, rating him the cleaner technician on the feet, while Piotr Kacprzak sits near a pick’em at 1.95. In a three-round setting with judges who consistently reward top control, mat returns, and cage time, Kacprzak’s style projects as the higher-percentage path to bank rounds and edge close scorecards.

Charzewski is the sharper kickboxer: fast jab, snappy low kicks, and counters in combination when opponents enter on a straight line. He’s dangerous early, and if he establishes the calf kick, he can blunt entries and make Piotr second-guess level changes. But Charzewski’s tendency to drift toward the fence under pressure and throw kicks in the pocket offers Kacprzak the exact cues he needs—reactive shots off naked kicks, body-locks off overcommitted counters, and chain-wrestling to tire the legs. Even if initial takedown attempts get stuffed, Kacprzak’s ability to re-attack and force clinch phases is what sways judges in tight rounds.

The cardio dynamic also favors the wrestler over 15 minutes. Charzewski’s volume can dip when forced to defend repeated entries, and his get-ups, while respectable, often come at the cost of control time against the fence. Kacprzak doesn’t need to dominate on the mat; he just needs to accumulate control, sprinkle short strikes, and threaten back takes to keep the round in his column. If the stand-up minutes are competitive and the grappling minutes are clearly Piotr’s, that arithmetic usually decides the cards.

From a numbers standpoint, the implied probability on Charzewski at 1.74 is roughly 57%, and Kacprzak at 1.95 is about 51%. I cap Kacprzak in the 54–56% range due to his wrestling edge, round-winning style, and the likelihood of clinch/takedown control in two of three frames. On a $1 stake, that translates to a small but real positive expected value—his price understates his true win chance. The primary risk is an early momentum swing if Charzewski punishes entries with uppercuts or intercepting knees, or if calf kicks severely hamper Piotr’s shot. Still, those sequences are lower percentage over extended minutes than the rinse-and-repeat grappling plan.

The cleanest angle is Kacprzak moneyline at 1.95, with a strong lean that the fight trends to a decision he secures via control and attritional pressure. If live markets appear, look to add at any plus-money drift after a competitive Round 1—his win condition often strengthens late. Bottom line: in a fight likely decided by optics and minutes won, Kacprzak offers the better side of the number.