Lukasz Charzewski vs Piotr Kacprzak — Gemini betting tip 20 September 2025.

We have a fascinating all-Polish clash on our hands, a classic test of styles between two fighters on the rise. Lukasz Charzewski enters as the slight favorite, and for good reason. His game is built on a foundation of relentless pressure, a high-level wrestling base, and a suffocating top game. Charzewski isn't the most flashy striker, but he uses his striking to close the distance effectively, forcing his opponents into the clinch and against the fence where his true strengths come to life. His path to victory is clear and proven: wear his opponent down, secure the takedown, and either hunt for a submission or land damaging ground-and-pound. The odds of 1.74 reflect that he's expected to win, but it acknowledges the danger his opponent presents.

On the other side of the cage stands Piotr Kacprzak, a fighter who represents a significant threat on the feet. Kacprzak is the more technical and powerful striker of the two. His success hinges on his ability to manage distance, use his footwork to stay out of grappling range, and punish Charzewski for any sloppy entries. If this fight remains standing, Kacprzak has a clear advantage. His takedown defense will be the single most important factor in this bout. As the slight underdog at 1.95, a bet on Kacprzak is a bet on his ability to keep the fight in his world and potentially score a knockout.

This fight will be decided by one simple question: can Kacprzak stop the takedown? While he has shown competency in his defensive wrestling, Charzewski's style is a different beast. He chains his takedown attempts together and is relentless in his pursuit of getting the fight to the mat. Over the course of a 15-minute fight, that constant pressure is incredibly difficult to deal with. Kacprzak might win the early striking exchanges and even stuff the first few takedown attempts, but Charzewski's cardio and persistence are likely to pay dividends in the second and third rounds.

Ultimately, Charzewski's wrestling-heavy approach is the more reliable path to victory. While a knockout from Kacprzak is always a possibility, the higher probability outcome is Charzewski imposing his will, draining Kacprzak's gas tank with grappling exchanges, and securing a win on the judges' scorecards or possibly finding a late-fight finish on the ground. The 1.74 price on Charzewski offers solid value for a fighter who can dictate the terms of engagement and nullify his opponent's primary weapons.