Michal Dreczkowski vs Adam Tomasik — ChatGPT betting tip 20 September 2025.

This matchup looks like a classic market lean toward the safer, more established favorite, but the price creates an opening for a calculated underdog stab. Michal Dreczkowski is being asked to justify clear favoritism at 1.38, which says he should win well over two-thirds of the time. In MMA, especially outside the very top tiers where data is sparse and stylistic unknowns are common, that kind of confidence can be fragile. One clean exchange, a scramble turning into top control, or a momentum swing after an early storm often flips these fights on their head.

Let’s translate the odds. At 1.38, the market implies roughly 72–73% for Dreczkowski. Adam Tomasik at 2.80 implies about 35–36%. Add them together and you get a healthy bookmaker margin near 8%, so we need to be picky. For a $1 bettor, Dreczkowski’s price pays a modest return and demands dominant reliability; Tomasik, meanwhile, only needs to clear that mid-30s threshold to be profitable over the long run.

Stylistically, fights priced like this often revolve around an early favorite surge: aggressive pressure, sharper mechanics, or top control to bank minutes. But that same front-running style can introduce binary outcomes—either the favorite snowballs early or the tempo slows, the cardio gap narrows, and the underdog’s opportunities multiply. Underdogs with sturdy defense, willingness to counter, and a willingness to clinch or wrestle in spots frequently stretch these fights into the moments where variance lives: late-round scrambles, small errors, or a single clean shot.

From a betting perspective, the value case is straightforward. At 2.80, Tomasik needs roughly 36% true win probability to break even. In a three-round fight with small gloves and limited public tape, the true gap is rarely as wide as the price suggests—especially if the underdog can survive the first five minutes and ask the favorite to win layered positions instead of a clean sprint. Tomasik has real finishing equity as the fight extends and enough paths—counter right, attritional clinch work, opportunistic top time—to make this number attractive.

The favorite may still be the “most likely” winner, but the bet that makes money in the long run is the one with the better price. I’ll take the underdog on the moneyline at 2.80, expecting a gritty, swingy affair where one or two sequences decide it and the payout justifies the risk.