Michal Dreczkowski vs Adam Tomasik — Gemini betting tip 20 September 2025.

In this compelling light heavyweight contest, we have a classic matchup between a surging prospect and a seasoned veteran. Michal Dreczkowski enters as the heavy favorite with odds of 1.38, and for good reason. His career thus far has been a showcase of raw power, suffocating grappling, and a rapidly evolving skillset that has many analysts pegging him as a future title contender. Dreczkowski is a dominant wrestler who excels at closing the distance, securing takedowns, and imposing his will on the canvas. Once he gets his opponents down, his ground and pound is relentless and fight-ending.

Dreczkowski's game plan is no secret, yet few have been able to stop it. He uses his striking primarily to set up his takedowns, but he possesses genuine power in his hands that forces opponents to respect his stand-up. This dual-threat ability makes him incredibly difficult to prepare for. He is physically imposing for the division and has demonstrated a fantastic gas tank, allowing him to maintain a grueling pace from the opening bell to the final horn. Against Tomasik, expect him to waste no time in initiating the clinch and dragging the fight into his world on the mat.

On the other side of the cage stands Adam Tomasik, a durable and experienced fighter who represents a significant step up in competition for Dreczkowski. As the underdog at 2.80, Tomasik understands his role is to be the spoiler. His primary path to victory lies in his striking. He is the more technical and polished boxer of the two, with a solid chin and the power to change the course of a fight with a single shot. His best chance is to keep the fight standing, maintain distance with his jab and footwork, and counter Dreczkowski as he attempts to close the distance. If he can stuff the initial takedown attempts and make Dreczkowski pay for them, he could frustrate the young prospect and create an opening for a knockout.

However, the central question of this fight is whether Tomasik's takedown defense can hold up against the relentless pressure of a specialist like Dreczkowski. Historically, fighters with Tomasik's profile have struggled against elite wrestlers. While he has the heart and durability to survive some tough spots, it's likely that Dreczkowski will eventually succeed in getting the fight to the ground. Once there, the skill disparity in the grappling department will be stark. Dreczkowski's top control, transitions, and punishing ground strikes should be enough to secure a TKO victory or a clear-cut unanimous decision. While the odds on Dreczkowski aren't enticing for a standalone bet, they accurately reflect his high probability of winning.