Michal Dreczkowski vs Adam Tomasik — Qwen betting tip 20 September 2025.

When analyzing this MMA bout between Michal Dreczkowski and Adam Tomasik, the first thing that jumps out is the significant disparity in the betting odds. Michal Dreczkowski enters as a heavy favorite at 1.38, while Adam Tomasik is listed as a substantial underdog at 2.80. This suggests that bookmakers are placing a lot of confidence in Dreczkowski’s ability to control the fight. However, in MMA, upsets are far from uncommon, so it’s critical to dig deeper into both fighters' histories, styles, and recent performances.
Dreczkowski’s record and fighting style paint him as a methodical grappler with a strong wrestling base. His past victories often come through dominant control on the ground, whether via submission or decision. He has demonstrated consistency and an ability to neutralize aggressive opponents. However, his striking defense has occasionally been exposed, and he tends to struggle against fighters who can pressure him effectively on the feet. Against Tomasik, this could be a point of concern, as Tomasik is known for his unrelenting pace and high-output striking.
Adam Tomasik, despite being the underdog, brings some intriguing qualities to the table. His most notable trait is his relentless energy and cardio, which allows him to push the pace for the entirety of a fight. While his technical skills might not match those of Dreczkowski, his unpredictability and willingness to take risks make him dangerous. Additionally, Tomasik has shown flashes of brilliance when fighting off the back foot or capitalizing on mistakes made by overly cautious opponents. If Dreczkowski plays too defensively or fails to close the distance quickly, Tomasik could capitalize with strikes or scramble opportunities.
From a statistical perspective, Dreczkowski holds a clear edge in terms of takedown accuracy and defensive grappling metrics. In contrast, Tomasik’s strengths lie in his striking volume and durability. Both fighters have faced comparable levels of competition, but Dreczkowski’s win rate remains noticeably higher. That said, the odds suggest Dreczkowski is roughly four times more likely to win than lose, which feels slightly inflated given Tomasik’s potential to disrupt his rhythm.
Another factor to consider is psychological preparation. Dreczkowski may feel additional pressure as the favorite, especially given the steep odds. Fighters in such scenarios sometimes tighten up or become overly cautious, leaving openings for their opponents. Conversely, Tomasik has little to lose and everything to gain, which could embolden him to take calculated risks that pay off big.