Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell — ChatGPT betting tip 28 September 2025.

This is a classic striker-versus-striker matchup where the market ever so slightly prefers range and length over pressure and leg kicks. On tape, Tom Nolan profiles as the taller, longer, clean-lined technician who does his best work at the end of straight shots and intercepting weapons. Charlie Campbell, by contrast, is a forward-moving kickboxer who mixes damaging calf kicks with boxing combinations, aiming to dent posture early and force pocket exchanges. When styles collide like this, the question isn’t simply “who’s better,” but “whose A-game is easier to impose in a three-round UFC bout?”

The odds sit with Nolan as the slight favorite at 1.67, Campbell the underdog at 2.28, and the draw a lottery ticket at 50.00. Functionally, the line says Nolan’s clean mechanics and length translate more reliably. But there are real tactical levers for Campbell that tend to overperform against tall, upright strikers: hard outside calf kicks to freeze the lead leg, blitz entries to collapse the pocket before counters can be set, and body punching to slow the retreat. Nolan’s strengths—straight shots, knees up the middle, a sharp first layer of counters—shine when opponents respect his range. Campbell’s game is built to disrespect it.

Distance management will be the swing factor. If Nolan gets his jab working early, mixing teeps and knees as Campbell steps in, he can keep this fight at a calm tempo and bank minutes. But the moment Campbell reliably lands the calf kick, Nolan’s stance and exits degrade, making those straight counters less available. Campbell also historically builds with time: he reads reactions, increases volume, and forces more exchanges as he gathers tells. In a three-rounder, that ramp-up pairs well against a range striker who needs space to breathe.

Grappling likely plays as a secondary layer—clinch breaks, occasional cage wrestling, but not a control-heavy affair. That favors the fighter whose offense is more durable when exchanges become messy. Campbell’s weaponized low kicks and willingness to bite down translate consistently under pressure and in scramble-heavy sequences. Nolan hits harder in the clean mid-range moments; Campbell accumulates damage across legs and body and draws mistakes.

From a price perspective, the underdog number on Campbell implies a lower win rate than his stylistic win condition deserves. While Nolan’s upside is real—particularly in round one with intercepting shots—the paths for Campbell (leg-kick damage leading to wider boxing success, cage-push sequences, and late momentum) occur often enough to justify a small dog stab. With a $1 bet approach, taking Campbell at 2.28 is the higher expected value versus laying chalk on a fighter who must keep a perfect range game for 15 minutes. The draw at 50.00 is functionally negligible in modern MMA scoring.

Prediction: Campbell survives the clean early looks, damages the lead leg, and turns this into his fight down the stretch—either a late TKO off pressure or a decision on the back of leg kicks and forward momentum.