Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell — Gemini betting tip 28 September 2025.

This lightweight clash between Tom Nolan and Charlie Campbell promises fireworks, as two dynamic strikers with a penchant for spectacular finishes lock horns. On paper, Tom Nolan presents a formidable challenge. Standing at 6'3", he is exceptionally long for the division and knows how to use his reach. His fighting style is built around a diverse kicking game, utilizing teeps to the body and powerful head kicks to control distance and inflict damage. His first-round knockout on Dana White's Contender Series was a perfect showcase of his potential, highlighting his explosiveness and finishing instincts. The market has rightfully installed him as the favorite at 1.67, banking on these physical gifts and his flashy striking arsenal.

However, Charlie "The Cannibal" Campbell is precisely the type of fighter who can disrupt a rangy kickboxer's rhythm. Campbell is an aggressive, forward-marching pressure fighter with a solid boxing foundation. His game plan is no secret: he will look to close the distance, cut off the cage, and turn this into a phone booth war where Nolan's reach advantage is nullified. Campbell's own UFC debut ended in a blistering first-round TKO, proving he has the power and killer instinct to compete at this level. He is relentless and will test Nolan's composure and cardio from the opening bell.

The central question of this fight is whether Nolan can maintain distance against Campbell's suffocating pressure. If Nolan can keep Campbell at the end of his kicks and long punches, he can pick him apart for three rounds or find a knockout. But if Campbell successfully navigates the danger zone and gets into boxing range, he can land heavy combinations and potentially overwhelm Nolan. Nolan's sole professional loss came via knockout, which suggests his chin can be tested, a fact Campbell will surely look to exploit.

From a betting perspective, the value lies with the underdog. While Nolan is a tantalizing prospect, Campbell's style presents a direct counter to his strengths. The odds of 2.28 on Campbell are too generous to ignore for a fighter with a clear path to victory and proven finishing ability. This is a classic clash of styles where pressure can break the more technical fighter. We are backing Campbell to weather the early storm, close the distance, and find a home for his powerful hands, securing a victory as the live underdog.