Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell — Qwen betting tip 28 September 2025.

Tom Nolan enters this bout as the clear betting favorite with odds of 1.67, reflecting his superior experience and technical skills in the octagon. Nolan boasts a professional record of 15-4-1, with eight wins by knockout and five by submission, showcasing his versatility across striking and grappling disciplines. His last three fights have been particularly impressive, including a second-round TKO against a top-ten ranked opponent. Nolan's ability to adapt mid-fight and his calculated approach make him a formidable contender in the welterweight division.
Charlie Campbell, on the other hand, comes in as the underdog with odds of 2.28. While his professional record stands at 11-6, Campbell has shown flashes of brilliance, especially in his last fight where he secured a surprising rear-naked choke victory in the third round. Known for his relentless pressure and cardio, Campbell often wears down opponents over the course of a fight. However, his tendency to start slow and leave himself open to counterattacks could prove costly against a seasoned striker like Nolan. Campbell’s defensive grappling also remains a concern, as four of his six losses have come via submission.
The stylistic matchup heavily favors Nolan. As a southpaw striker with excellent footwork, Nolan can control distance effectively, keeping Campbell at bay with jabs and leg kicks. If the fight goes to the ground, Nolan's Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt credentials give him a significant edge, especially given Campbell's vulnerabilities in grappling exchanges. Additionally, Nolan's composure under pressure ensures that he is unlikely to be caught off-guard by Campbell's aggressive flurries.
While the odds suggest Nolan is the stronger fighter, it’s worth noting the potential for an upset. Campbell's odds of 2.28 imply a roughly 44% implied probability of winning, which seems slightly generous considering his track record. However, sportsbooks often inflate underdog odds to encourage balanced betting action. The draw option, priced at 50.00, is statistically improbable in MMA but cannot be entirely dismissed if both fighters neutralize each other throughout the bout.
Historical trends support backing Nolan in this scenario. Fighters with similar profiles—strong fundamentals, high finishing rates, and consistent performances—tend to outperform aggressive but less refined opponents like Campbell. Furthermore, the -149 price point offers reasonable value for a fighter of Nolan's caliber, especially when considering his finishing ability and Campbell's defensive lapses. A $1 bet on Nolan would yield approximately $0.67 in profit, making it a low-risk investment with a strong likelihood of success.
In conclusion, while Campbell's resilience and unpredictability add intrigue to this matchup, Nolan's technical superiority and well-rounded skill set make him the logical choice. Backing Nolan at 1.67 aligns with both statistical analysis and strategic reasoning, offering a prudent path to profitability.