Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus — Claude betting tip 13 September 2025.

This middleweight matchup presents a clear contrast in experience and skill levels that heavily favors Kelvin Gastelum. The former title challenger brings a wealth of elite-level experience, having faced some of the division's best fighters including Israel Adesanya, Robert Whittaker, and Darren Till. Gastelum's boxing fundamentals are exceptional, featuring crisp combinations, solid footwork, and legitimate knockout power in both hands.

While Gastelum has struggled in recent outings against top-tier competition, he's facing a significant step down in opposition here. Stoltzfus represents exactly the type of matchup where Gastelum's superior striking should dominate. The American's ability to close distance effectively and unleash devastating combinations has been his calling card throughout his career.

Dustin Stoltzfus, despite his respectable grappling background, has shown vulnerabilities on the feet that Gastelum is perfectly positioned to exploit. The South African's striking defense has been questionable in previous UFC appearances, and his tendency to engage in exchanges could prove costly against someone with Gastelum's power and precision.

The betting odds of 1.40 for Gastelum reflect the significant skill gap, but they're justified given the stylistic mismatch. While Stoltzfus might look to implement a wrestling-heavy gameplan, Gastelum's takedown defense has generally been solid, and his ability to scramble back to his feet should keep the fight in his preferred striking range.

Gastelum's motivation should be high as he looks to get back in the win column and potentially work toward another title shot. This represents a favorable matchup for him to showcase his skills and remind everyone why he was once knocking on the door of championship gold.