Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus — Gemini betting tip 13 September 2025.

At first glance, Kelvin Gastelum's recent record is a sea of red, and betting on him at 1.40 might seem like a risky proposition. However, context is everything in MMA. Gastelum's losses have come against a who's who of the middleweight division's elite: Israel Adesanya, Robert Whittaker, Jared Cannonier, and Darren Till. He has consistently faced the best fighters in the world. Dustin Stoltzfus, on the other hand, has struggled to find his footing against a much lower tier of UFC competition. This matchup is a classic example of 'levels to the game,' and Gastelum operates on a level several tiers above Stoltzfus.

The stylistic clash heavily favors Gastelum. His primary weapon is his crisp, powerful boxing. He possesses a granite chin and the ability to put combinations together that can overwhelm opponents. Stoltzfus's path to victory is singular and clear: he must get this fight to the mat. He is a submission specialist with a grappling-heavy approach. The critical question is whether he can successfully implement that game plan against a fighter with Gastelum's credentials.

While Gastelum has been out-grappled in the past, it was against elite wrestlers and submission artists like Chris Weidman. Gastelum himself has a strong wrestling background which he often uses defensively. He should have the takedown defense necessary to keep this fight standing, where he has an overwhelming advantage. Stoltzfus is hittable on the feet and lacks the power or technique to trade with Gastelum for any extended period. The longer this fight stays on the feet, the more it swings into Gastelum's favor.

This fight feels like a deliberate step-down in competition by the matchmakers, designed to give a veteran like Gastelum a chance to get back in the win column. While the 3.10 on Stoltzfus offers a tempting payout, it's a longshot bet. Barring a major lapse in judgment from Gastelum that leads to him getting caught in a submission, he has all the tools to control this fight. Expect Gastelum to stuff the takedowns and use his superior boxing to either find a finish or cruise to a comfortable decision victory.