Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus — DeepSeek betting tip 13 September 2025.

Kelvin Gastelum enters this matchup as a significant favorite for compelling reasons. Despite recent setbacks against elite competition (Adesanya, Whittaker, Cannonier), Gastelum possesses vastly superior skills and experience compared to Stoltzfus. Gastelum's Olympic-level wrestling pedigree provides a dominant grappling foundation, while his powerful boxing and southpower stance offer legitimate knockout threat. He's faced championship-caliber fighters consistently, a level Stoltzfus hasn't approached. Crucially, Gastelum is returning to welterweight, potentially regaining speed without sacrificing too much strength.

Dustin Stoltzfus, while durable, presents significant concerns. His UFC record stands at 1-4, with all losses coming via stoppage (TKO or submission), highlighting defensive vulnerabilities, particularly on the ground. He lacks the one-punch power or high-level wrestling needed to consistently trouble Gastelum. His path to victory seems limited to catching Gastelum in a rare defensive lapse or via extreme volume if Gastelum fades badly – neither scenario is highly probable.

The odds reflect this disparity. Gastelum's price around 1.40 (71.7% implied probability) demands respect given his clear advantages in wrestling, power, and the quality of opposition he's accustomed to facing. While not a massive value bet, it's justified. Stoltzfus at 3.10 is tempting but overlooks his consistent struggles against UFC-level competition and Gastelum's significant step down in opponent caliber. The stylistic matchup heavily favors Gastelum, who should control the grappling exchanges and land the harder, more damaging strikes. The risk lies in Gastelum's defensive lapses or potential weight-cut issues, but Stoltzfus lacks the proven tools to reliably exploit them. Expect Gastelum to pressure early, potentially secure takedowns, and wear Stoltzfus down for a stoppage or clear decision win.