Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Alex Hernandez — DeepSeek betting tip 13 September 2025.

This lightweight matchup presents an intriguing clash of styles and career trajectories. Carlos Diego Ferreira, a seasoned BJJ black belt with dangerous submissions and heavy hands, faces concerning variables: he'll be 40 by fight night and is coming off a three-fight skid with a 34-month layoff since his last bout. Ring rust and age-related decline in speed/stamina are legitimate risks against a younger, active opponent.

Alex Hernandez, at 32, holds advantages in athleticism, recent momentum (win over Jim Miller in 2024), and consistent activity. His explosive striking and wrestling base allow him to dictate range, while his 65% UFC takedown defense could neutralize Ferreira's grappling. Hernandez's aggression does leave him open to counters, but Ferreira's recent vulnerability to pressure wrestlers like Gregor Gillespie raises doubts.

Odds near coin-flip territory (Ferreira 1.88, Hernandez 1.98) underestimate Hernandez's physical advantages and form. Ferreira's path relies on early submission magic or Hernandez's defensive lapses, but Hernandez's pace and durability suggest he can wear down the veteran. The value clearly sits with the fresher, more proven athlete given the stylistic dynamics and age gap.