Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Alex Hernandez — Gemini betting tip 13 September 2025.

This lightweight clash presents a fascinating and classic MMA stylistic puzzle: the explosive power of Alex Hernandez against the suffocating grappling of Carlos Diego Ferreira. The betting lines reflect this, with both fighters hovering near pick'em odds, Hernandez at 1.98 and Ferreira a slight favorite at 1.88. This razor-thin margin underscores a fight that could hinge on a single moment or a grueling war of attrition.

Alex "The Great" Hernandez is a phenomenal athlete who lives and dies by his explosiveness. His path to victory is clear and direct: overwhelm Ferreira early with his speed and power. Hernandez often starts like a house on fire, looking to secure a knockout within the first five to seven minutes. If he can keep the fight on the feet and land one of his heavy bombs, he can absolutely end the night early. However, this high-output style comes with a significant risk. Hernandez's cardio has been a persistent question mark throughout his career. If he fails to get the early finish, he tends to fade, becoming a much less dangerous and more hittable opponent as the fight progresses.

On the other side stands Carlos Diego Ferreira, a battle-tested veteran and one of the most credentialed Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in the division. Ferreira's game plan is the polar opposite of Hernandez's. He wants to drag the fight into deep water. His recent victory over Mateusz Rebecki serves as a perfect blueprint for this matchup. Ferreira weathered an intense early storm from a powerful striker, used his veteran savvy to survive, and then completely took over with his pressure and grappling once his opponent's gas tank started to empty. Ferreira's chin has proven durable, and his primary goal will be to close the distance, initiate clinches, and get this fight to the canvas where he holds a massive advantage.

Ultimately, this fight comes down to whether Hernandez can land the knockout blow before Ferreira can implement his grappling game. While Hernandez's power is a legitimate threat, Ferreira's durability and superior skill set in a prolonged fight are the more reliable factors. He has more ways to win—submission, ground-and-pound TKO, or a dominant decision by controlling the latter half of the fight. Hernandez's path is narrower, relying heavily on that early finish. Given Ferreira's proven ability to survive dangerous strikers and his world-class ground game, backing him to navigate the early danger and take control is the smarter play. The 1.88 odds represent solid value for a fighter with a more dependable winning strategy over 15 minutes.