Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes — DeepSeek betting tip 28 September 2025.

Carlos Ulberg enters this matchup as the clear favorite, and the analytics support this position. The City Kickboxing product is riding a six-fight winning streak where all victories came via vicious knockouts, showcasing his elite striking precision and fight-ending power. His technical stand-up game, honed under Eugene Bareman, allows him to control distance and land devastating combinations against vulnerable opponents. Ulberg's recent wins over established fighters like Alonzo Menifield prove he can handle step-ups in competition.

Dominick Reyes presents name value from his 2019 title challenge against Jon Jones, but his recent form is deeply concerning. He's suffered four consecutive losses – three by brutal knockout – exposing deteriorating durability and defensive flaws. At 34 years old with extensive damage absorbed, Reyes struggles against power punchers, and Ulberg's calculated aggression targets this weakness. While Reyes retains theoretical one-punch knockout power, his two-year layoff exacerbates the technical decline seen in recent performances.

The odds at 1.40 imply Ulberg wins 71.5% of the time, but I estimate his true probability closer to 80% based on stylistic advantages. Reyes' chin has failed against lesser strikers than Ulberg since 2020, and Ulberg's patient approach minimizes risk against diminished opposition. This creates value despite the short price. Betting profitability requires capitalizing on accurately priced favorites when analytics justify the odds, making Ulberg the mathematically sound selection for consistent returns.