Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes — Gemini betting tip 28 September 2025.

This light heavyweight showdown pits a surging contender against a former title challenger at a career crossroads. Carlos Ulberg enters this fight as the clear favorite at 1.40, and for good reason. Riding an impressive six-fight winning streak, the City Kickboxing product looks more refined and dangerous with every octagon appearance. "Black Jag" is a technical, high-volume kickboxer who excels at breaking opponents down with a relentless pace, sharp combinations, and debilitating leg kicks. His recent performances, including dominant wins over Alonzo Menifield and Da Woon Jung, showcase a fighter hitting his prime, brimming with confidence and backed by an elite game plan.

On the other side stands Dominick Reyes, a fighter whose story is one of dramatic highs and devastating lows. It wasn't long ago that Reyes took Jon Jones to the absolute limit in a title fight many believe he won. However, what followed was a brutal four-fight losing streak, with three of those losses coming by way of brutal knockout. While he snapped that skid with a much-needed first-round knockout of Dustin Jacoby, the questions about his durability remain. At 3.09, Reyes is a live underdog solely because of the one-punch power he still possesses. "The Devastator" is a natural athlete with a dangerous southpaw stance and the ability to end a fight in an instant.

The critical question in this matchup is whether Reyes's chin can hold up against the sustained, accurate offense of Ulberg. This is almost guaranteed to be a striking battle, and while Reyes has the power advantage, Ulberg has the edge in volume, cardio, and, most importantly, recent durability. Reyes's path to victory is a short one: land a clean, powerful shot early before Ulberg can establish his rhythm and start accumulating damage. However, Ulberg has shown a solid chin and excellent composure under pressure.

Ultimately, the smart money lies with the fighter on the ascent. Ulberg's consistent pressure, technical acumen, and ability to wear opponents down over time is a nightmare matchup for the current version of Dominick Reyes. We expect Ulberg to weather any early storm, systematically break Reyes down with kicks to the legs and body, and either find a finish in the later rounds or cruise to a comfortable decision victory. The momentum and stylistic advantages all point in one direction.