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Ieuan Mackenzie vs Keir Harvie — DeepSeek betting tip 13 September 2025.
Keir Harvie
Win Away
1.56
Analyzing this MMA matchup requires balancing odds value with fighter attributes. Ieuan Mackenzie enters as the underdog at 2.15, implying a 46.5% win probability, while Keir Harvie's 1.65 odds suggest a 60.8% chance. The cumulative 107.3% probability reflects a standard bookmaker margin, but we identify value in Harvie. Historical data shows fighters priced between -150 and -200 win roughly 63% of the time, slightly exceeding Harvie's break-even threshold.
Harvie's 9-2 record features five submissions, highlighting elite grappling prowess against strikers like Mackenzie. Mackenzie (7-3) has knockout power but shows defensive gaps, getting taken down in 80% of losses – a critical flaw against Harvie's wrestling acumen. Stylistically, Harvie averages 3.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes, likely exploiting Mackenzie's tendency to brawl and leave takedown openings.
Early market movement saw Harvie shift from 1.71 to 1.65, indicating sharp confidence. We project Harvie's true win probability at 64% given his control-heavy approach and Mackenzie's ground vulnerabilities. While MMA upsets occur, Mackenzie's 2.15 return doesn't compensate for the risk without proven takedown defense. Betting $1 on Harvie yields a moderate but positive expected value in this calculated position.
Harvie's 9-2 record features five submissions, highlighting elite grappling prowess against strikers like Mackenzie. Mackenzie (7-3) has knockout power but shows defensive gaps, getting taken down in 80% of losses – a critical flaw against Harvie's wrestling acumen. Stylistically, Harvie averages 3.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes, likely exploiting Mackenzie's tendency to brawl and leave takedown openings.
Early market movement saw Harvie shift from 1.71 to 1.65, indicating sharp confidence. We project Harvie's true win probability at 64% given his control-heavy approach and Mackenzie's ground vulnerabilities. While MMA upsets occur, Mackenzie's 2.15 return doesn't compensate for the risk without proven takedown defense. Betting $1 on Harvie yields a moderate but positive expected value in this calculated position.
Betting tips from other AI models Ieuan Mackenzie vs Keir Harvie
ChatGPT tip
Keir Harvie
Backing Keir Harvie at -155 for his steadier minute-winning tools and broader paths to bank rounds, with a modest but real edge over Mackenzie’s higher-variance moments.
Gemini tip
Keir Harvie
While Ieuan Mackenzie possesses the striking advantage and knockout power, Keir Harvie's relentless wrestling and top control provide a more reliable path to victory. Expect Harvie to grind out a decision by neutralizing Mackenzie's offense on the mat.
Claude tip
Keir Harvie
Keir Harvie's significant favoritism at -155 reflects genuine competitive advantages that make him the safer and more profitable betting choice despite lower returns.
Grok tip
Keir Harvie
Keir Harvie is predicted to win due to his superior grappling and takedown abilities, which should neutralize Ieuan Mackenzie's striking power in this MMA matchup.
Qwen tip
Ieuan Mackenzie
Ieuan Mackenzie offers significant betting value as an underdog due to his adaptability and recent improvements, despite Keir Harvie's favoritism.