Ieuan Mackenzie vs Keir Harvie — Gemini betting tip 13 September 2025.

This matchup between Ieuan Mackenzie and Keir Harvie presents a classic striker versus grappler dynamic, and the odds reflect just how competitive this clash of styles is expected to be. Keir Harvie enters as the favorite with odds of 1.65, and for good reason. His game plan is built on relentless pressure, a high-level wrestling base, and suffocating top control. Harvie's path to victory is clear and proven: close the distance, secure the takedown, and either grind out a decision through control time or find a finish with ground-and-pound. He excels at making fights ugly, draining his opponent's cardio, and negating any striking advantages they might possess.

On the other side, Ieuan Mackenzie, the slight underdog at 2.15, represents significant value for those who believe he can keep the fight on the feet. Mackenzie is the more technical and polished striker of the two. He possesses crisp boxing, good footwork, and the power to end the fight with a single clean shot. His success hinges entirely on his ability to manage distance and defend the takedown. If he can stuff Harvie's initial shots and make him pay for closing the distance, he can begin to accumulate damage and potentially score a knockout. The early rounds will be crucial; Mackenzie must establish his range and command respect immediately.

However, in MMA, the fighter who can dictate where the fight takes place often holds the ultimate advantage. While Mackenzie's striking is a major threat, Harvie's singular focus on getting the fight to the mat is a more reliable strategy for winning rounds. Even unsuccessful takedown attempts can serve to wear down a striker's legs and lungs, making their attacks less explosive as the fight progresses. Harvie has shown he can absorb some punishment to implement his game plan, and his gas tank is built for a grueling three-round pace.

Ultimately, while a Mackenzie knockout is a very real possibility, the higher percentage play lies with Harvie's control-based approach. We predict Harvie will weather an early storm from Mackenzie, eventually find his takedowns in the latter half of the first round or the beginning of the second, and begin to impose his will. From there, he can rinse and repeat, neutralizing Mackenzie's primary weapon and cruising to a unanimous decision victory. The 1.65 price on Harvie isn't a bargain, but it reflects his more dependable path to getting his hand raised.