Moktar Benkaci vs Nawras Abzakh — DeepSeek betting tip 27 September 2025.

Moktar Benkaci enters as the significant favorite at 1.45, implying a roughly 69% win probability. Nawras Abzakh stands as the underdog at 2.55, offering a tempting payout. While Benkaci likely possesses superior grappling control and experience, MMA's inherent volatility makes heavy favorites risky bets. Abzakh's underdog odds translate to an implied win probability of only 39%, which feels slightly undervalued in a sport defined by sudden finishes. Historical data consistently shows underdogs in the +150 to +200 range win significantly more often than their implied odds suggest – often closer to 40% in competitive matchups. The price on Benkaci demands near certainty, which is rarely justified outside of extreme mismatches. Abzakh doesn't need to be the better fighter overall; he simply needs one fight-altering moment – a well-timed strike, a scramble, or a submission opportunity – to cash the ticket. The risk-reward calculus strongly favors the underdog here. Betting Abzakh at +155 provides positive expected value long-term, as the implied probability required for profitability (39%) is lower than the realistic chance he possesses in a dynamic, unpredictable environment like the cage. Favoring the underdog is the mathematically sound play.