Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula — Gemini betting tip 04 September 2025.

This US Open showdown presents a classic clash of styles between two of the WTA Tour's elite: the raw, unadulterated power of Aryna Sabalenka versus the crafty, tactical consistency of Jessica Pegula. On the fast hard courts of Flushing Meadows, this matchup promises high-octane rallies and a fascinating strategic battle.

Aryna Sabalenka enters this contest as the heavy favorite, and for good reason. Her game is tailor-made for these conditions. Sabalenka possesses arguably the most powerful groundstrokes in the women's game, backed by a formidable first serve that can earn her free points and get her out of trouble. When her game is firing, she is a force of nature, capable of blowing any opponent off the court by hitting through them and dictating play from the very first ball. Her aggressive, high-risk style means she lives and dies by the sword; her unforced error count can sometimes creep up, which is the primary window of opportunity for her opponents. However, in the latter stages of a Grand Slam, she has shown an improved ability to manage her aggression and find her range when it matters most.

On the other side of the net, Jessica Pegula represents a significant challenge. Playing on home soil, she will have the full backing of the New York crowd, an intangible factor that can't be understated in a high-pressure match. Pegula's game is built on a foundation of consistency, clean ball-striking, and exceptional court sense. She is a master counter-puncher who excels at absorbing her opponent's pace and redirecting it with precision into the corners. Her flatter groundstrokes take time away from her opponents, preventing them from setting up for their biggest shots. Pegula's path to victory lies in frustrating Sabalenka, extending rallies, and baiting her into over-hitting. She must weather the early storm and capitalize on any dips in Sabalenka's level.

The betting odds reflect Sabalenka's perceived dominance, pricing her at 1.30. While this indicates a high probability of victory, it offers little value for a straight-up bet. The real intrigue lies with Pegula at 3.45. For an American top-ten player competing at her home slam, these are tempting odds. Pegula has the game to trouble Sabalenka and has defeated her before. However, the head-to-head record historically favors Sabalenka, whose peak level is simply a cut above. While an upset is certainly possible, betting on it requires Sabalenka to have an off day. In a major tournament setting, banking on Sabalenka's A-game is the more prudent, albeit less profitable, choice. Her power game on a hard court is the ultimate trump card in women's tennis, and it should be enough to see her overpower the tactical prowess of Pegula.