Yanis Ghemmouri vs Assem Ghanem — ChatGPT betting tip 27 September 2025.

Market check first: Yanis Ghemmouri is trading around 1.52 while Assem Ghanem sits near 2.38. Those lines imply win probabilities of roughly 65.8% for Ghemmouri and 42.0% for Ghanem before accounting for the bookmaker’s overround; normalize that and the market is saying about 61/39 in favor of Ghemmouri. The question for us is simple: is Ghemmouri’s real win probability meaningfully higher than that 61% consensus? My read is yes.

On tape and tendencies, this profiles as a minutes-vs-moments fight. Ghemmouri’s game is built on structure: clean entries, defensively responsible exits, and steady output that wins exchanges without needing reckless trades. He manages distance well, picks safe counters, and rarely gives away cheap positions. That style is ideal against an opponent like Ghanem, who appears more burst-driven—fast-twitch blitzes, big power swings, and opportunistic exchanges that can flip a round or finish a fight but often come with defensive gaps and a higher energy cost.

In extended exchanges, Ghemmouri should bank cage control and optics: jabs, calf kicks, and 2-3 punch combinations that score while keeping him balanced to sprawl and circle. If Ghanem over-commits, expect Ghemmouri to punish entries with counters or level-change feints into clinch resets. In the clinch, Ghemmouri’s inside frames and pummeling are tidier, which matters both for stalling Ghanem’s bursts and for subtly winning the judges. If takedowns materialize, I favor Ghemmouri to be the one deciding when they happen and to use them for round-stealing rather than diving for prolonged top time that risks scrambles.

Cardio and round-over-round sustainability also tilt toward Ghemmouri. Ghanem’s best win condition lives early: create chaos, land a clean bomb, or generate a momentum swing with a big moment that sways the judges. If that storm passes and the fight settles into pattern, Ghemmouri’s process stacks points and wears on an opponent who’s already had to spend fuel chasing high-variance opportunities. Late, that can mean a 29-28 or 30-27 on cards, with a non-zero chance of an attritional finish if Ghanem fades.

From a numbers standpoint, the breakeven for 1.52 is about 65.8%. I project Ghemmouri in the 68–70% range given his minute-winning tools, defensive responsibility, and edge in pace management. On a $1 stake, the expected profit at 68% is roughly +3.4% (0.68 × 0.5208 − 0.32 × 1). Conversely, taking 2.38 requires about 42.0% true probability; I have Ghanem closer to 30–32% because his path is narrower and more timing-dependent.

The bet is straightforward: $1 on Ghemmouri moneyline at 1.52. Tactically, I’ll live-monitor early momentum—if Ghemmouri reads Ghanem’s entries and keeps the center through the first 90 seconds, the favorite’s edge tends to widen. But pre-fight, the favorite is the right side and shows a small but real positive expectation.

Pick: Yanis Ghemmouri to win.